Forex News Timeline

Thursday, March 27, 2025

The NZD/USD pair edges lower to around 0.5730 during the early Asian session on Thursday.

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Economists expect the RBNZ to deliver further cuts to the Official Cash Rate at each of the next meetings despite GDP figures last week surprising to the upside. This, in turn, might weigh on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the USD. "And so we don’t expect that this [GDP] upside surprise will have much impact on the near-term policy outlook, i.e., we continue to expect a 25bp cut in the OCR at the April and May meetings,” said Westpac senior economist Darren Gibbs. 

US President Donald Trump said late Wednesday that he will impose a 25% tariff on auto imports, widening the global trade war. Trump said the tariffs would go into effect on April 2 and that the US would start to collect them a day later. Trump added that tariffs will likely be more “lenient than reciprocal,” as the April 2 tariff deadline looms for a number of levies to go into effect. However, the uncertainty and unpredictability of Trump tariff policies raise concerns over the economic slowdown in the US, which could undermine the Greenback. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.  

The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains under pressure against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Thursday, as risk-off sentiment rises amid concerns over impending US auto tariffs.

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The AUD/USD pair weakened following President Donald Trump’s decision late Wednesday to impose a 25% tariff on auto imports, further escalating global trade tensions. The tariffs are set to take effect on April 2, with collection beginning the following day. President Trump suggested plans on Wednesday to impose tariffs on copper imports within weeks, although the Commerce Department initially had until November 2025 to decide on the matter. This development, however, provided some support for the AUD, as Australia is a key Copper exporter, and the potential tariff move lifted commodity prices. The AUD could find further support as investors expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep interest rates steady next week. This past February, the RBA made its first 25-basis-point rate cut in four years. RBA Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter reiterated the central bank’s cautious approach to further rate cuts, with February’s policy statement signaling a more conservative stance than market expectations, particularly in response to US policy shifts and their impact on Australia’s inflation outlook. Australian Dollar struggles as risk-off sentiment rises The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, is retreating from recent gains and trading around 104.50. The greenback is under pressure as US Treasury yields decline, with the 10-year and 2-year yields hovering at 4.0% and 4.34%, respectively. Traders are closely watching upcoming US economic data, including weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the final Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized report, set for release on Thursday. According to Reuters, Trump will grant up to a one-month reprieve for auto parts imports from his proposed 25% automobile tariffs. The proclamation states that while automobiles will be subject to the 25% tariff starting at 04:01 GMT on April 3, auto parts will face the tariff at a later date, to be specified in a Federal Register notice, but no later than May 3, 2025. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem made strong remarks on Wednesday, joining a growing number of Fed policymakers warning about the Trump administration’s tariff policies. Musalem cautioned that these measures are disrupting the stable US economy, increasing uncertainty, and driving inflation higher. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari emphasized that work remains to be done on inflation, stating, "The job market has stayed strong, but the biggest challenge is to finish the job." Kashkari also noted that policy uncertainty is making the Fed's task more complex. Expectations of Chinese stimulus could boost the Australian economy, given strong trade ties between the two nations. China’s Communist Party and State Council have proposed measures to "vigorously boost consumption" by raising wages and easing financial burdens—an effort to restore consumer confidence and revitalize the struggling economy. President Trump announced plans on Wednesday to reduce tariffs on China to facilitate ByteDance's sale of TikTok's US operations. While he emphasized that the tariffs hold greater value than TikTok itself, he suggested that a minor tariff reduction could aid in finalizing the deal. Trump also hinted at the possibility of extending the deadline for the TikTok sale once again. Australia’s Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-over-year in February, slightly below January’s 2.5% increase and market expectations of 2.5%. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers presented the 2025/26 budget on Tuesday, outlining key economic forecasts and tax cuts totaling approximately A$17.1 billion across two rounds. The budget deficit is projected at A$27.6 billion for 2024-25 and A$42.1 billion for 2025-26. GDP growth is expected to reach 2.25% in the fiscal year 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. The tax cuts appear to be aimed at strengthening political support. Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar tests 0.6300 barrier near nine-day EMA AUD/USD is trading near 0.6290 on Thursday, with technical indicators hinting at a potential bullish shift as the pair attempts to break above its descending channel pattern. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) still remains just below 50, indicating that bearish pressure is still present. The nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6305 is serving as an immediate resistance level. A breakout above this point could strengthen short-term price momentum, paving the way for a test of the monthly high at 0.6391, last seen on March 18. Conversely, failure to sustain gains could see the AUD/USD pair re-enter its descending channel, reinforcing the bearish outlook. This scenario may drive the pair toward the seven-week low of 0.6187, recorded on March 5, which aligns with the channel’s lower boundary. AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.   USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD   -0.11% -0.05% -0.32% 0.11% 0.08% -0.01% -0.06% EUR 0.11%   0.03% -0.23% 0.20% 0.15% 0.09% 0.03% GBP 0.05% -0.03%   -0.25% 0.16% 0.13% 0.04% 0.00% JPY 0.32% 0.23% 0.25%   0.42% 0.37% 0.28% 0.25% CAD -0.11% -0.20% -0.16% -0.42%   -0.02% -0.11% -0.16% AUD -0.08% -0.15% -0.13% -0.37% 0.02%   -0.08% -0.12% NZD 0.00% -0.09% -0.04% -0.28% 0.11% 0.08%   -0.04% CHF 0.06% -0.03% -0.00% -0.25% 0.16% 0.12% 0.04%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.  

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 7.1763 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1754 and 7.2728 Reuters estimate.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said late Wednesday that sanctions on Russia need to stay in place.

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 "Sanctions against Russia should remain in place and strengthen as long as the Russian occupation continues,” said Zelenskyy Market reaction  At the time of writing, the Gold price (XAU/USD) is trading 0.19% higher on the day to trade at $3,025.  Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.  

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $69.60 during the early Asian session on Thursday.

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WTI price has been supported since US President Donald Trump slapped a 25% secondary tariff on nations that buy Venezuelan oil or gas, effective April 2. According to Commerce Department trade data, the United States purchased $5.6 billion worth of oil and gas from Venezuela in 2024, making it one of the top foreign suppliers of oil to the US last year.

The decline in crude oil inventories contributes to an increase in crude oil prices. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report showed crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending March 21 fell by 3.341 million barrels, compared to an increase of 1.745 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decrease by 1.6 million barrels. 

On the other hand, a maritime and energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine offset concerns about tighter global supply, which might cap the upside for the WTI price. The US reached deals with Ukraine and Russia to pause attacks at sea and against energy targets, with Washington also attempting to ease certain sanctions against Moscow. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.  

EUR/USD accelerated to the downside on Wednesday, shedding over one-quarter of one percent on Wednesday and skidding back below 1.0750 for the first time since the first week of March.

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The pair has lost ground for six straight trading days, and souring market sentiment on trade war fears is poised to take more bites out of risk appetite in the days to come as we get closer to April 2.President Trump plans 25% tariff on imported vehiclesAccording to various avenues of information, the Trump administration still plans to move ahead with a wide tariff on all copper imports into the US, matching the Trump team’s recent 25% flat import tax on all steel and aluminum that cross the US border. President Trump also intends to announce additional tariffs on automobiles across the board, and European Union (EU) officials are expecting the Trump administration to announce a tariff of around 20% on all, or most, or a targeted group of goods, depending on what day it is and how Donald Trump is feeling at that time. Fed's Musalem expects inflation back to 2% by 2027All of this may or may not be in addition to the anticipated “reciprocal” tariff package that President Trump intends to kick off on April 2, which countries may or may not be able to get exemptions from. Donald Trump intends to impose a matching tariff on other countries that have their own trade barriers on US goods, a rather perplexing approach to trade in general. President Trump has also floated the idea of classifying VAT, or luxury taxes, as a kind of pseudo-tariff on US goods, and including those in reciprocal tariffs. US GDP growth figures are due on Thursday, but the non-preliminary print is unlikely to drive much momentum in either direction. This week’s key US data release will be Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) inflation due on Friday. Investors will be hoping that a recent upturn in inflation figures will prove to be temporary, but median forecasts are expecting annualized PCE inflation to rise to 2.7% YoY in February. EUR/USD price forecast Six days of steady declines are taking their toll on EUR/USD, as bids slide nearly 2% top-to-bottom from last week’s peak just above 1.0950. Bearish momentum has taken hold, and price action is poised to make a fresh push into the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) just south of the 1.0700 handle. EUR/USD daily chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  

Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks climbed from previous ¥-1806.2B to ¥-1206B in March 21

Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks increased to ¥-1B in March 21 from previous ¥-1806.2B

US President Donald Trump will allow up to a one-month reprieve for auto parts imports from his proposed 25% automobile tariffs, per Reuters.

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The proclamation said that automobiles will be subject to the 25% tariff after 04.01 GMT on April 3, but auto parts will be subject to the tariffs on a date to be specified in a Federal Register notice, "but no later than May 3, 2025.”

The proclamation noted that the duties "shall continue in effect unless such actions are expressly reduced, modified or terminated.”    Market reaction At the time of writing, the USD/CAD pair is trading 0.24% higher on the day to trade at 1.4300. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.  

The USD/CAD pair rebounds to around 1.4305 during the late American session on Wednesday.

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Late Wednesday, US President Donald Trump signed an order to implement a 25% tariff on auto imports, widening the global trade war. Trump said the tariffs would go into effect on April 2 and that the US would start to collect them a day later. This development weighs on the Loonie and acts as a tailwind for the pair as Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the United States, including oil and autos.

The Bank of Canada's (BoC) latest Meeting Minutes indicated that fears of trade-policy uncertainties "significantly weakening" near-term economic growth prompted the BoC to lower its key interest rate this month, despite some policymakers arguing that a pause was appropriate.

Trump stated in late November to hit Canada and Mexico with 25% tariffs on imports but held off in February and March from implementation. The policies are now set to take effect on April 2, even though the Toronto Star reported on Wednesday that Canada could be on the lower end of the tariffs. The Trump administration's unpredictability is likely to undermine the CAD in the near term.  Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.  

GBP/USD sewered on Wednesday, tumbling six-tenths of a percent top-to-bottom and pushed back below the 1.2900 handle as market sentiment recoils from a fresh batch of tariff threats from US President Donald Trump.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD fell back below 1.2900 on Wednesday.Markets are recoiling after Donald Trump renewed his tariff pledges.An ever-growing list of tariffs is set to come into effect on April 2.GBP/USD sewered on Wednesday, tumbling six-tenths of a percent top-to-bottom and pushed back below the 1.2900 handle as market sentiment recoils from a fresh batch of tariff threats from US President Donald Trump. Economic suddenly means very little as the Trump administration gears up to spark a them-vs-everybody trade war on April 2.US President Donald Trump announces plan to tariff all imported cars 25%Policymakers have warned that the Trump administration’s long-winded trade war aspirations are beginning to hurt the US's economic prospects. Red flags are also being raised by key financial agencies: according to the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Global ratings contingent, there is a 25% probability of a US recession kicking off within the next year. S&P Global specifically highlighted that “US policy uncertainty poses risks to North American credit conditions”. UK inflation figures came in broadly under market forecasts on Wednesday, helping to ease market concerns. The next batch of key UK data will be Friday’s final Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Retail Sales updates. UK GDP growth is expected to match the previous figures during the fourth quarter of 2024, but Retail Sales figures are expected to contract slightly in February. US GDP growth figures are also due on Thursday, but the non-preliminary print is unlikely to drive much momentum in either direction. This week’s key US data release will be Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) inflation due on Friday. Investors will be hoping that a recent upturn in inflation figures will prove to be temporary, but median forecasts are expecting annualized PCE inflation to rise to 2.7% YoY in February. GBP/USD price forecast GBP/USD chalked in another down day during the midweek market session, dragging bids down even further from the last swing high near 1.3000. Bearish pressure is beginning to accumulate, and price action could be poised for a downside snap as bidders lose the momentum war just north of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2725. GBP/USD daily chart Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  

Silver price retreats by 0.32% after reaching a four-day high of $33.92.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver retreats 0.32%  after hitting $33.92, pressured by US Dollar rebound despite recent bullish momentum.RSI suggests bulls may attempt another push above $34.00 toward key resistance at $34.86.Breakdown below $33.00 exposes support at $32.66, followed by 50-day SMA near $32.04.Silver price retreats by 0.32% after reaching a four-day high of $33.92. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $33.60, undermined by the strength of the US Dollar, which has registered solid gains. XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook After registering a solid rally on Tuesday, Silver failed to break the $34.00 mark, which opened the door for sellers, capping the grey metal’s advance to challenging yearly peaks, near $34.23. Momentum favors XAG/USD upside as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which, is about to surpass the previous peak. Therefore, short-term further upside is seen. XAG/USD first resistance would be the March 26 high at $33.92. Once cleared the next stop would be the $34.00 figure, followed by last October’s monthly peak at $34.86. Conversely, if XAG/USD slips beneath $33.00, immediate support emerges at the March 21 low of $32.66. Once hurdled, the next stop is the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $32.04. XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.  

The NZD/USD pair traded with limited traction during Wednesday’s session ahead of the Asian open, seen around the 0.5725 zone.

NZD/USD was seen hovering around the 0.5725 area on Wednesday, showing mild losses within a narrow intraday range.While oscillators show mixed signals, shorter-term moving averages lean bullish, keeping the upside potential intact.Support aligns at 0.5722–0.5725 zone, while resistance caps upside around 0.5732–0.5740 levels.The NZD/USD pair traded with limited traction during Wednesday’s session ahead of the Asian open, seen around the 0.5725 zone. Despite a mild decline on the day, the pair continues to hold in a tight range, consolidating recent gains while staying above key short-term support levels. Momentum remains mixed, yet the bullish structure still holds, supported by shorter-term trend indicators. Technically, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signlas a mild bearish bias, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 51, offering a neutral stance. The Bull Bear Power indicator, however, suggests latent buying interest. Meanwhile, the combined RSI/Stochastic oscillator also reads neutral, highlighting indecision in the momentum picture. From a trend perspective, the 20-day Simple Moving Average at 0.5725 and both the 30-day EMA and SMA near 0.5723 continue to support short-term upside bias. However, traders should take note of the congestion between the 100-day and 20-day SMAs, currently at 0.5733 and 0.5720, respectively. Support is stacked closely at 0.5725, 0.5723, and 0.5722, while resistance lies ahead at 0.5732, followed by 0.5740. A clean break above the latter may spark renewed interest toward higher levels, while failure to hold the support cluster could lead to short-term weakness. NZD/USD daily chart
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