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04:19 BoJ’s Ueda says US tariffs likely to exert downward pressure on Japan, global economies
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said early Friday that US tariffs are likely to exert downward pressure on Japan and the global economies.
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Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said early Friday that US tariffs are likely to exert downward pressure on Japan and the global economies.Key quotesUS tariffs are likely to exert downward pressure on Japan, global economies.
Hard to say now how US tariffs will affect Japan’s price moves.
Will closely monitor US tariff impact on Japan, overseas economic and price developments in deciding monetary policy.
We will scrutinise data, including from hearings, available at the time of each policy meeting to gauge US tariff impact on Japan’s economy, prices.
We will guide monetary policy appropriately from the standpoint of sustainably achieving 2% inflation target.
When the external environment changes sharply, our growth and price forecasts will change, so will guide monetary policy accordingly in an appropriate manner.Market reaction At the press time, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.17% on the day to trade at 146.33. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
Hard to say now how US tariffs will affect Japan’s price moves.
Will closely monitor US tariff impact on Japan, overseas economic and price developments in deciding monetary policy.
We will scrutinise data, including from hearings, available at the time of each policy meeting to gauge US tariff impact on Japan’s economy, prices.
We will guide monetary policy appropriately from the standpoint of sustainably achieving 2% inflation target.
When the external environment changes sharply, our growth and price forecasts will change, so will guide monetary policy accordingly in an appropriate manner.Market reaction At the press time, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.17% on the day to trade at 146.33. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
04:02 AUD/USD posts modest gains above 0.6300 as Trump tariffs fuel recession fears
The AUD/USD pair edges higher to around 0.6330 during the early Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as US President Donald Trump's fresh trade tariffs stoke fears of a global recession.
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Worries about the impact of an escalating global trade war and a slew of weaker-than-expected US data raise the fear of a sharp global economic slowdown, which drags the USD lower broadly. Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Thursday showed that the US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) eased to 50.8 in March from 53.5 in February. This reading came in lower than the estimation of 53.0.
The Trump administration on Wednesday announced that the US will impose a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the United States (US). China was hit hard, facing a tariff of at least 54% on many goods. Chinese authorities threaten retaliation after Trump hits it with the highest US tariff on any country. This, in turn, might exert some selling pressure on the China-proxy Aussie, as China is the major trading partner to Australia.
However, the encouraging Chinese economic data might help limit the AUD’s losses. China’s Caixin Services PMI improved to 51.9 in March from 51.4 in February. This figure came in stronger than the 51.6 expected. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Worries about the impact of an escalating global trade war and a slew of weaker-than-expected US data raise the fear of a sharp global economic slowdown, which drags the USD lower broadly. Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Thursday showed that the US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) eased to 50.8 in March from 53.5 in February. This reading came in lower than the estimation of 53.0.
The Trump administration on Wednesday announced that the US will impose a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the United States (US). China was hit hard, facing a tariff of at least 54% on many goods. Chinese authorities threaten retaliation after Trump hits it with the highest US tariff on any country. This, in turn, might exert some selling pressure on the China-proxy Aussie, as China is the major trading partner to Australia.
However, the encouraging Chinese economic data might help limit the AUD’s losses. China’s Caixin Services PMI improved to 51.9 in March from 51.4 in February. This figure came in stronger than the 51.6 expected. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
03:36 BoJ’s Uchida says will raise rates if inflation rises and economy improves
Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said on Friday that the central bank will raise interest rates if underlying inflation heightens against the background of continued improvements in the economy.
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Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said on Friday that the central bank will raise interest rates if underlying inflation heightens against the background of continued improvements in the economy. Key quotesWill raise interest rates if underlying inflation heightens against background of continued improvements in the economy.
We will examine, without any preset idea, whether our economic, price forecasts laid out in our quarterly report will be achieved.
We will scrutinise at each meeting economic, price developments and risks including the impact of U.S. tariffs.
Trump tariffs are likely to put downward pressure on Japan, global economies.
There are various upside, downside impacts on prices that could come from Trump tariffs,
Trump tariffs could push down prices if they cool the economy, but may push up prices via impact on global supply chains.
Trump tariffs could affect prices via market, FX moves.Market reaction At the press time, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.08% on the day to trade at 146.19. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
We will examine, without any preset idea, whether our economic, price forecasts laid out in our quarterly report will be achieved.
We will scrutinise at each meeting economic, price developments and risks including the impact of U.S. tariffs.
Trump tariffs are likely to put downward pressure on Japan, global economies.
There are various upside, downside impacts on prices that could come from Trump tariffs,
Trump tariffs could push down prices if they cool the economy, but may push up prices via impact on global supply chains.
Trump tariffs could affect prices via market, FX moves.Market reaction At the press time, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.08% on the day to trade at 146.19. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
03:04 Japan's Kato concerns about tariffs impact on economies
Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said late Thursday that he is concerned about US tariffs that will impact the Japanese economy and could have a significant impact on trade systems. However, Kato does not comment on foreign exchange.
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Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said late Thursday that he is concerned about US tariffs that will impact the Japanese economy and could have a significant impact on trade systems. However, Kato does not comment on foreign exchange. Key quotesWarns tariffs could have a significant impact on trade systems.
Also impacts economies.
Says has no comment on foreign exchange. Market reaction At the press time, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.15% on the day to trade at 146.28. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Also impacts economies.
Says has no comment on foreign exchange. Market reaction At the press time, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.15% on the day to trade at 146.28. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
02:53 Trump administration sued over Chinese import tariffs - Reuters
New Civil Liberties Alliance, a conservative legal group, on Thursday filed what it said was the first lawsuit seeking to block US President Donald Trump's tariffs on Chinese imports, claiming that the president overstepped his authority, per Reuters.
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New Civil Liberties Alliance, a conservative legal group, on Thursday filed what it said was the first lawsuit seeking to block US President Donald Trump's tariffs on Chinese imports, claiming that the president overstepped his authority, per Reuters. Key quotes
The suit claims Trump exceeded his legal authority by imposing tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
It was filed in federal court in Florida and targets both the April 2 sweeping tariffs and those from February 1.
The NCLA argues Trump has misused emergency powers, violated the Constitution’s separation of powers, and overstepped Congress’s authority on tariff policy.
The lawsuit seeks a court order to block the tariffs’ enforcement and reverse changes to the U.S. tariff schedule.
The White House has not yet commented on the case.
Market reactionAt the time of press, the US Dollar Index was up 0.05% on the day at 102.01. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
The suit claims Trump exceeded his legal authority by imposing tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
It was filed in federal court in Florida and targets both the April 2 sweeping tariffs and those from February 1.
The NCLA argues Trump has misused emergency powers, violated the Constitution’s separation of powers, and overstepped Congress’s authority on tariff policy.
The lawsuit seeks a court order to block the tariffs’ enforcement and reverse changes to the U.S. tariff schedule.
The White House has not yet commented on the case.
Market reactionAt the time of press, the US Dollar Index was up 0.05% on the day at 102.01. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
02:52 EUR/USD lurched higher on Thursday, breaks into fresh highs on tariff tantrum
EUR/USD rallied hard on Thursday, with the Euro getting pushed higher alongside the rest of the market as the US Dollar tumbles on the heels of the Trump administration’s combined flat and “reciprocal” tariff packages that were unveiled this week.
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US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures through March further hampered investor sentiment on Thursday, falling to a nine-month low of 50.8 and declining at one of its fastest month-on-month rates since the pandemic. Business activity and consumer confidence evaporated in the run-up to the Trump administration’s tariffs, and post-tariff realities are unlikely to see sentiment recover quickly.Fed's Jefferson warns Fed is not in a rush to change ratesFed's Cook expects inflation progress to stall after tariffsThe Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariff proposals have ignited global backlash, with former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers claiming the government calculated tariffs without proper data. This claim aligns with the Trump team’s publications, which explain that their reciprocal tariffs are computed by dividing a country’s net exports to the US by imports from the US and then halving that figure, with a minimum tariff of 10%. As a result of the Trump administration’s tariff “methodology”, the US has imposed a 10% “reciprocal” tariff on Heard Island and McDonald Islands, A territory that remains entirely uninhabited by humans.
US President Donald Trump approved a 10% tariff on all imports effective April 5, with calculated “reciprocal” tariffs starting on April 9. According to Fitch Ratings, US economic growth will dip below the downgraded forecast from March. The Fitch Ratings agency has warned that the effects of Trump's tariffs will also reach the Federal Reserve (Fed), which may delay interest rate cuts as it monitors the inflation and employment impacts of these tariffs.
EUR/USD price forecast
On Thursday, EUR/USD experienced a significant rally, climbing substantially and settling close to the 1.1100 mark following the European session. The pair achieved notable intraday gains, propelled by ongoing bullish momentum that moved it toward the upper half of its broad daily range. Despite some oscillators signaling caution, the moving average configuration supports the bullish trend as it heads into the Asian session.
The technical outlook still leans toward the bulls. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) increased to 72.32, indicating overbought conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents a sell signal, suggesting possible exhaustion. Nevertheless, other momentum indicators, such as the Williams Percent Range at -18.88 and Momentum at 0.022, provide a mixed to bullish perspective.
EUR/USD daily chart
Euro FAQs What is the Euro?
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
02:34 Japan considering an extra budget to address tariffs
Japanese media Asahi reported on Thursday that the Japanese government is considering what actions to take over the new tariffs, including an extra budget.Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Thursday highlighted its disappointment and "serious concern" over the US move to impose reciprocal tariffs on t
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Japanese media Asahi reported on Thursday that the Japanese government is considering what actions to take over the new tariffs, including an extra budget.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Thursday highlighted its disappointment and "serious concern" over the US move to impose reciprocal tariffs on the Asian nation's products. Ishiba said that he will continue to urge the US to reconsider. Market reaction At the time of press, the USD/JPY pair was down 0.01% on the day at 146.06. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Thursday highlighted its disappointment and "serious concern" over the US move to impose reciprocal tariffs on the Asian nation's products. Ishiba said that he will continue to urge the US to reconsider. Market reaction At the time of press, the USD/JPY pair was down 0.01% on the day at 146.06. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
02:30 Japan Overall Household Spending (YoY) above forecasts (-1.7%) in February: Actual (-0.5%)
Japan Overall Household Spending (YoY) above forecasts (-1.7%) in February: Actual (-0.5%)
02:15 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds positive ground above $3,100, all eyes on US NFP data
Gold price (XAU/USD) recovers some lost ground to near $3,115 during the late American session on Thursday after facing some profit-taking in the previous session.
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The precious metal trims losses after falling over 2% from an all-time high, as a broader market selloff triggered by US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs policy infected Gold traders. Traders attributed gold’s dip to profit-taking and investors selling some of their bullion holdings to cover losses in other asset classes.
However, the downside for the yellow metal might be capped amid the fears that Trump's tariffs could dampen economic growth. The heightened uncertainty could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Gold price. "As the market sold-off on the deleveraging pressures, the market was looking for buying opportunities on the dip," said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.
All eyes will be on the US March employment data on Friday, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings. In case of the stronger-than-expected outcome, this could lift the Greenback and cap the upside for the USD-denominated commodity price. Additionally, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, Michael Barr, and Christopher Waller are set to speak later on the same day. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The precious metal trims losses after falling over 2% from an all-time high, as a broader market selloff triggered by US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs policy infected Gold traders. Traders attributed gold’s dip to profit-taking and investors selling some of their bullion holdings to cover losses in other asset classes.
However, the downside for the yellow metal might be capped amid the fears that Trump's tariffs could dampen economic growth. The heightened uncertainty could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Gold price. "As the market sold-off on the deleveraging pressures, the market was looking for buying opportunities on the dip," said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.
All eyes will be on the US March employment data on Friday, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings. In case of the stronger-than-expected outcome, this could lift the Greenback and cap the upside for the USD-denominated commodity price. Additionally, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, Michael Barr, and Christopher Waller are set to speak later on the same day. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
01:44 IMF's Georgieva: US tariffs represent significant risk to global outlook
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday that sweeping tariffs announced on Wednesday by US President Donald Trump represent a significant risk to the global economy at a time when growth has been sluggish.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday that sweeping tariffs announced on Wednesday by US President Donald Trump represent a significant risk to the global economy at a time when growth has been sluggish.
Key quotes
Says U.S. tariff measures represent a ‘significant risk to the global outlook’ at a time of sluggish growth.
Says it is important to avoid steps that could further harm the world economy.
We appeal to the US and its trading partners to work constructively to reduce tensions.
01:40 GBP/USD takes a hard rejection from fresh highs, but holds on the bullish side
GBP/USD briefly clipped the 1.3200 handle for the first time in six months on Thursday, climbing into fresh highs as the Greenback turns sour across the board.
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US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures through March further hampered investor sentiment on Thursday, falling to a nine-month low of 50.8 and declining at one of its fastest month-on-month rates since the pandemic. Business activity and consumer confidence evaporated in the run-up to the Trump administration’s tariffs, and post-tariff realities are unlikely to see sentiment recover quickly.Fed's Jefferson warns Fed is not in a rush to change ratesFed's Cook expects inflation progress to stall after tariffsThe Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariff proposals have ignited global backlash, with former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers claiming the government calculated tariffs without proper data. This claim aligns with the Trump team’s publications, which explain that their reciprocal tariffs are computed by dividing a country’s net exports to the US by imports from the US and then halving that figure, with a minimum tariff of 10%. As a result of the Trump administration’s tariff “methodology”, the US has imposed a 10% “reciprocal” tariff on Heard Island and McDonald Islands, A territory that remains entirely uninhabited by humans.
US President Donald Trump approved a 10% tariff on all imports effective April 5, with calculated “reciprocal” tariffs starting on April 9. According to Fitch Ratings, US economic growth will dip below the downgraded forecast from March. The Fitch Ratings agency has warned that the effects of Trump's tariffs will also reach the Federal Reserve (Fed), which may delay interest rate cuts as it monitors the inflation and employment impacts of these tariffs.
GBP/USD price forecast
GBP/USD caught a firm bid on Thursday on the back of weakening Greenback flows. However, Pound Sterling bulls caught a firm technical rejection from the 1.3200 handle and pushed bids back to the 1.3100 region.
Despite a flubbed bullish extension, Cable has broken out of a near-term consolidation range and is poised for further upside as the pair continues to trade north of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2735.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling?
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
00:36 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Kiwi extends advance near 0.5800 with bullish technical signals intact
The NZD/USD pair continued its positive run on Thursday, holding firm near the 0.5800 area and gaining momentum ahead of the Asian session.
NZD/USD trades near the 0.5800 zone on Thursday, extending gains ahead of the Asian session.Momentum remains positive with MACD showing a buy signal, while RSI and other oscillators hold in neutral territory.Support rests at 0.5776 and 0.5749, while 0.5850 and the 200-day SMA cap upside potential.The NZD/USD pair continued its positive run on Thursday, holding firm near the 0.5800 area and gaining momentum ahead of the Asian session. Price action remains contained within the upper section of the daily range, signaling steady demand even as short-term momentum indicators remain mixed. Overall, the pair is supported by key short-term averages that lean in favor of further upside.
Daily chart
From a technical perspective, the outlook leans bullish. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to flash a buy signal, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59.87 remains neutral but tilted higher. Other oscillators such as the Williams Percent Range (WPR) at -27.16 and the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 12.35 also reflect a neutral tone, indicating a lack of extreme conditions in momentum.
Key short-term moving averages, including the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.57495, 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.57362, and the 20-day SMA at 0.57449, all suggest upside support. The 100-day SMA at 0.57199 reinforces the positive bias. On the flip side, the longer-term 200-day SMA at 0.59049 stands as a key resistance level, alongside the 0.58517 zone, which could limit bullish continuation in the near term.
Support is seen at 0.57766, followed by 0.57629 and 0.57495. These levels could cushion any pullbacks should momentum stall. Overall, while the pair remains buoyant, further gains may depend on a break above the 200-day SMA, which would strengthen the bullish case further.
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