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16:09 AUD/USD rises to near 0.6150 despite USD’s solid performance
The AUD/USD pair moves higher to near 0.6150 in Monday’s North American session.

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The Aussie pair gains even though the US Dollar (USD) outperforms a majority of its peers as traders have trimmed Federal Reserve (Fed) dovish bets after the release of the upbeat United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for December. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, posts a fresh over two-year high above 110.00. The US NFP report showed that demand for workers remained robust. Also, the Unemployment Rate decelerated. This scenario is favorable for the US Dollar as it weighs on Fed dovish bets. Analysts at Macquarie expect the Fed to cut borrowing rates only once this year, with the current interest rate cycle bottoming in the range of 4.00%-4.25%. The projection of only one interest rate reduction is lower than the two, which Fed officials collectively anticipated in the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) dot plot. The next trigger for the US Dollar is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, which will be released on Wednesday. Meanwhile, investors have underpinned the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the USD even though traders price in a roughly 75% chance of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in February’s policy meeting. On the economic front, investors will focus on the Australian employment data for December, which will be released on Thursday. The employment report is expected to show that the economy added 15K workers, fewer than 35.6K in November. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

15:16 USD/CAD ticks lower to near 1.4420 as BoC unlikely to continue reducing rates by 50 bps
The USD/CAD pair edges lower to near 1.440 in Monday’s North American session.

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The Loonie pair ticks lower as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) exhibits strength after Canada’s surprisingly upbeat labor market data weighed on market expectations for the Bank of Canada (BoC) to continue reducing interest rates at a larger-than-usual pace of 50 basis points (bps). The Canadian employment report showed a robust addition of laborforce alongwith a sharp decline in the jobless rate. However, a one-time good employment report appears to be insufficient to allow the BoC to pause its policy-easing cycle. The Loonie pair falls marginally even though the US Dollar (USD) extends its winning streak for the fifth trading session on Monday and posts a fresh over two-year high, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) rising above 110.00. The Greenback performs strongly as traders expect that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) current interest rate cut cycle has paused for now. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the central bank is expected to keep interest rates in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% in the January, March, and May policy meetings. Meanwhile, traders are divided for the policy meeting in June. Market participants have pared Fed dovish bets on the back of upbeat United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for December. The data showed that labor demand was surprisingly stronger than November’s reading. The Unemployment rate came in lower at 4.1% than estimates and the former release of 4.2%. Investors should brace for more volatility in market expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy outlook as the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December is lined up for release on Wednesday. Recent commentaries from Fed officials have indicated that they are concerned about a slowdown in progress in the disinflation trend. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

15:01 US Dollar higher with concerns on Fed’s policy fueling more upside
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, edges higher for the fifth straight day and trades around 110.00, at levels not seen since November 2022, on Monday.

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Markets reposition for a more restrictive Fed policy in 2025 after the most recent US employment report.The US Dollar Index (DXY) surges to 110.00, looking for consolidation at these upper levels.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, edges higher for the fifth straight day and trades around 110.00, at levels not seen since November 2022, on Monday. The move comes after markets catch up with the recent Nonfarm Payrolls report for December, released on Friday, and adjusted to the new narrative that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would be more restrictive and keep rates steady for longer, with chances for several interest rate cuts in 2025 diminishing. The US economic calendar is rather calm in the run-up to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Wednesday and Retail Sales on Thursday. At least this Monday will be a very quiet start, with just a few smaller bond auctions on the agenda. Meanwhile, traders can assess their next moves ahead of President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration next week. Daily digest market movers: Counting down At 16:30 GMT, the US Treasury will allocate a 3-month and a 6-month bill. At 19:00 GMT, the December Budget Statement will be released. The deficit is expected to shrink to $62 billion from $367 billion. Equities are taking over the negative tone from Asia. Besides Japan being closed, all other major indices are trading in red numbers. The CME FedWatch Tool projects a 97.3% chance that interest rates will be kept unchanged at current levels in the January meeting. Expectations are for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to remain data-dependent with uncertainties that could influence the inflation path once President-elect Donald Trump takes office on January 20. US yields are softening slightly. The 10-year benchmark is at 4.780%, off the fresh nine-month high of 4.798% seen in Asian trading on Monday.US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Is it all priced in?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is in the last seven days before President-elect Donald Trump takes office. With the changing market narrative towards a longer and more restrictive Fed monetary policy going forward, chances that the Fed might not even cut at all in 2025 could be very plausible. In that case, the ramifications for the Greenback would be that the US Dollar Index would surge even further. On the upside, the 110.00 psychological barrier needs to be held, and a consolidation must be seen above it for the rally to move higher. Further up, 110.79 remains the next big upside level to hit. Once beyond there, it is quite a stretch to 113.91, the double top from October 2022. On the downside, the first downside barrier is 107.35, which has now turned into support. The next level that might halt any selling pressure is 106.52, with the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 106.83 reinforcing above this region of support. US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

13:16 USD/JPY declines to near 157.30 despite USD Index refreshes two-year high
The USD/JPY pair slumps to near 157.30 in Monday’s European session.

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The asset drops even though the US Dollar (USD) performs strongly, suggesting sheer strength in the Japanese Yen (JPY). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, refreshes a more-than-two-year high above 110.00. The Greenback strengthens as market experts have revised down expectations for the number of interest rate cuts this year. Analysts at Macquarie expect the Fed to cut borrowing rates only once this year, with the current interest rate cycle bottoming in the range of 4.00%-4.25%. On the contrary, Fed officials collectively anticipated two interest rate cuts this year in the latest dot plot. Market participants have dialed back Fed dovish bets after the release of Friday’s upbeat United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for December. The NFP report showed that labor demand remained robust, and unemployment decelerated unexpectedly. This week, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, which will be published on Wednesday. Market participants will pay close attention to the inflation data as Fed policymakers have lately shown concerns over a slowdown in the progress of inflationary pressures declining toward the central bank’s target of 2%. Meanwhile, the safe-haven appeal of the Yen has strengthened amid global uncertainty. A sharp sell-off in equities globally has been observed amid risk-aversion mood with US President-elect Donald Trump returning to the White House on January 20. Also, growing expectations of more interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) have strengthened the Japanese currency. Traders expect the BoJ to raise its borrowing rates in the March meeting. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

12:34 Gold halts winning streak, ending last week’s rally
Gold’s price (XAU/USD) takes a step back and halts its four-day winning streak on Monday as markets catch up and reprice the recent US Nonfarm Payrolls release. The report further confirms the narrative that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might keep its

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price halts winning streak on Monday as markets catch up on the Nonfarm Payrolls release. Traders and investors remain cautious and favor safe-haven assets such as Gold and the US Dollar. Gold to test support before continuing its rally again. Gold’s price (XAU/USD) takes a step back and halts its four-day winning streak on Monday as markets catch up and reprice the recent US Nonfarm Payrolls release. The report further confirms the narrative that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might keep its policy rate higher for longer. While higher borrowing costs are typically negative for the non-interest-bearing precious metal, investors are bracing for more volatility ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House on January 20. On the economic data front, there is a relatively calm trading day ahead, with the dust settling further after the recent US Nonfarm Payrolls release. This Monday, the US Treasury will allocate some short-term bonds to the market. Daily digest market movers: Time to settle Operations at Wilton Resources’ Ciemas Gold Project in Indonesia remained suspended due to the continued power outage amid heavy rainfall caused by the La Nina phenomenon, according to a Friday press release, Bloomberg reports. The Indonesian unit, Masmindo Dwi Area, picked Macmahon as the mining services contractor for the Awak Mas gold project in South Sulawesi, according to an exchange filing, Bloomberg reports. The contract is valued at A$463 million over seven years and is expected to start in mid-2025. At 16:30 GMT, three-month and six-month bills are due to be auctioned by the US Treasury. The US 10-year benchmark rate trades at 4.782% at the time of writing on Monday, a touch lower than the peak at opening in Asia near 4.796%. At 21:30 GMT, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will release the Gold NC Net Positions. A forecast is not available, but the previous positioning was at $247,300. The report provides information on the size and direction of the positions taken across all maturities, participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets. Forex traders focus on "non-commercial" or speculative positions to determine whether a trend remains healthy or not, as well as market sentiment towards a certain asset.Technical Analysis: Critical momentGold has broken through a strong pennant formation, which was mentioned several times last week. Despite all the headwinds from higher yields and a stronger US Dollar (USD), the Bullion was able to still power through. Now support nearby needs to hold to avoid the Gold price from falling back into the pennant and resulting in a false break with the risk of more downside at hand. On the downside, the descending trend line near $$2,678 should hold as support to avoid re-entry in the pennant formation. The 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,652 is the next support after it saw a daily close above it on Wednesday. Further down, the 100-day SMA at $2,635 is the next in line. On the upside, $2,708 is the next pivotal level to look out for. Once that level is cleared, though still quite far off, $2,790 is the key upside level, which would be a fresh all-time high. XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

12:16 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slumps to near $30 as traders reassess Fed’s interest rate outlook
Silver price (XAG/USD) falls sharply to near $30.00 after failing to extend its upside above the key hurdle of $30.60 in Monday’s European session.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver price tumbles to near $30.00 as US bond yields rise after traders pare Fed dovish bets.US bond yields surge after the release of the surprisingly upbeat US NFP data for December.The overall outlook of the Silver price remains upbeat amid risk-off market sentiment.Silver price (XAG/USD) falls sharply to near $30.00 after failing to extend its upside above the key hurdle of $30.60 in Monday’s European session. The white metal weakens as the US bond yields strengthens, with market participants reassessing their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook after the release of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for December. 10-year US Treasury yields post fresh yearly high to near 4.80% as traders have pared Fed dovish bets after the release of the surprisingly upbeat labor market data. Higher yields on interest-bearing assets weigh on non-yielding assets, such as Silver, as they result in higher opportunity costs for them. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, posts a fresh two-year high above 110.00. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% atleast in the next three policy meetings. Meanwhile, the broader outlook of the Silver price remains firm as the market sentiment is bearish amid uncertainty over the incoming trade policies under the administration of US President-elect Donald Trump. The appeal of non-yielding assets strengthens in a highly uncertain environment. This week, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, which will be published on Wednesday. Silver technical analysis Silver price continues to face selling pressure near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades near $30.35. The white metal remains below the upward-sloping trendline around $30.50 on a daily timeframe, which is plotted from the February 29 low of $22.30 The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sideways trend. Looking down, the September low of $27.75 would act as key support for the Silver price. On the upside, the December 12 high of $32.33 would be the barrier. Silver daily chartSilver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

12:05 Greece Consumer Price Index - Harmonized (YoY) fell from previous 3% to 2.9% in December
Greece Consumer Price Index - Harmonized (YoY) fell from previous 3% to 2.9% in December

12:01 Greece Consumer Price Index (YoY) increased to 2.6% in December from previous 2.4%
Greece Consumer Price Index (YoY) increased to 2.6% in December from previous 2.4%

11:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Monday, according to FXStreet data.

11:29 Pound Sterling extends losing spell as soaring UK yields weigh on economic outlook
The Pound Sterling (GBP) extends its losing streak against its major peers at the start of the week.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling faces a sharp sell-off as rising borrowing costs for the UK government could force the administration to cut public spending.Surprisingly upbeat US NFP data has forced traders to pare dovish Fed bets.Investors await the UK-US inflation data for December, which will be released on Wednesday.The Pound Sterling (GBP) extends its losing streak against its major peers at the start of the week. The British currency continues to face selling pressure as soaring yields on United Kingdom (UK) 30-year gilts deepen concerns over the nation’s economic outlook. 30-year UK gilt yields roar to near 5.47%, the highest level since 1998. Market experts view the surge in gilt yields as partly driven by the uncertainty over incoming trade policies by United States (US) President-elect Donald Trump, who is set to enter the White House on January 20, and the UK’s heavy reliance on foreign financing to address their funds’ demand for domestic spending. "The more a country relies on foreign financing for its domestic debt issuance, the more exposed it is to the global environment," Deutsche Bank said and added that from the perspective of external flows, the UK is one of the “most vulnerable in the G10". Soaring UK government’s borrowing costs have jeopardized Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’s decision to fund day-to-day spending through tax receipts and cut public spending. However, UK Treasury Minister Darren Jones clarified at the House of Commons on Thursday that the government's decision to only borrow for investment was "non-negotiable”. Going forward, the next trigger for the Pound Sterling will be the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, which will be released on Wednesday. The consumer inflation data will significantly influence market speculation about the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy outlook. Currently, UK rate futures show that traders pare BoE dovish bets and see a 44 basis points (bps) interest rate reduction this year against the 50 bps recorded last week. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling weakens against US Dollar ahead of UK-US inflation data The Pound Sterling posts a fresh yearly low to near 1.2120 against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday. The GBP/USD pair weakens as the US Dollar strengthens as traders pare Federal Reserve (Fed) dovish bets this year after the release of the surprisingly robust US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for December. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, moves higher to a more-than-two-year high near 110.00. The US NFP report showed that labor demand remained strong and the Unemployment Rate decelerated, easing fears of a slowdown in the job market, which forced Fed policymakers to pivot to a policy-easing cycle with a larger-than-usual pace of 50 basis points (bps) in September. Analysts at Macquarie expect the Fed to cut borrowing rates only once this year, with the current interest rate cycle bottoming in the range of 4.00%-4.25%. This week, investors will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, which will be published on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Signs of stubborn inflation data would further weigh on the Fed’s dovish bets. Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling posts fresh yearly low near 1.2120 The Pound Sterling refreshes its more-than-a-year low to near 1.2120 against the US Dollar in Monday’s European session. The selling pressure in the GBP/USD pair was triggered after the pair broke below the January 2 low of 1.2350. Vertically declining 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2450 suggests that the near-term trend is extremely bearish. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides to nearly 26.70, the lowest since October 2023. This scenario suggests a strong bearish momentum. However, a slight recovery cannot be ruled out as the momentum oscillator is in oversold territory. Looking down, the pair is expected to find support near the October 2023 low of 1.2050. On the upside, the 20-day EMA will act as key resistance. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

11:19 WTI trims a part of strong gains to its highest level sine October, still well bid around $77.00
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices build on Friday's strong move up and gain follow-through positive traction for the third straight day on Monday.

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Technical buying above the very important 200-day SMA contributes to the momentum.Hawkish Fed expectations underpin the USD, which might cap gains for Crude Oil prices.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices build on Friday's strong move up and gain follow-through positive traction for the third straight day on Monday. The upward trajectory remains uninterrupted through the first half of the European session and lifts the commodity to the $77.60 area, or its highest level since October 8 in the last hour. The US imposed tougher sanctions against Russia's oil industry, targeting nearly 200 vessels of the so-called shadow fleet and fueling worries about tighter supplies. Adding to this, speculations that US President-elect Donald Trump's administration may tighten sanctions against flows from Iran in the coming months turn out to be key factors that continue pushing Crude Oil prices higher at the start of a new week. Apart from this, the ongoing positive momentum could further be attributed to technical buying following Friday's acceptance above the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since August 2024. That said, a slightly overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart might hold back bullish traders from placing fresh bets around Crude Oil prices and cap any further appreciation. Moreover, sustained US Dollar (USD) buying, bolstered by hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, could act as a headwind for the USD-denominated commodity. Investors now seem convinced that the US central bank will pause its rate-cutting cycle later this month and the bets were reaffirmed by the upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. This keeps the US Treasury bond yields elevated and underpins the USD. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

11:07 ECB’s Vujčić: Central bank unlikely to accelerate rate cuts
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Boris Vujčić said on Monday that the “ECB is unlikely to accelerate rate cuts.” Additional quotes Cutting faster would need a more significant departure from out projections.

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Boris Vujčić said on Monday that the “ECB is unlikely to accelerate rate cuts.” Additional quotes Cutting faster would need a more significant departure from out projections. Gradual moves are best amid uncertainty. Near-term market bets are justified. Market reaction These comments fail to lift the Euro, as EUR/USD remains 0.19% lower on the day near 1.0215, as of writing.

11:05 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Drops to near 0.5550 within the oversold territory
The NZD/USD pair continues its losing streak that began on January 7, trading around 0.5550 during the European hours on Monday.

10:36 EUR/GBP climbs above 0.8400 amid growing concerns about stagflation in the United Kingdom
EUR/GBP extends its strength for the fourth consecutive day, trading near 0.8410 during Monday’s European session.

10:00 USD/CAD advances to near 1.4450 as US jobs figures bolster hawkish mood surrounding Fed
USD/CAD continues to gain ground for the fifth successive day, trading around 1.4440 during the European hours on Monday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD extends its winning streak as traders expect the Fed to keep interest rates steady in January.US Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 256K in December, exceeding expected 160K and November’s figure of 212K.The downside of the commodity-linked CAD could be restrained due to higher Oil prices.USD/CAD continues to gain ground for the fifth successive day, trading around 1.4440 during the European hours on Monday. However, the USD/CAD pair appreciated as the US Dollar (USD) strengthened as the robust US labor market data for December will likely reinforce the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) stance to keep interest rates steady in January. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar’s (USD) performance against six major currencies, reached to 109.98, the highest level since November 2022, during the Asian hours on Monday. Additionally, higher yields are contributing support for the Greenback, with 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bond yields standing at 4.41% and 4.79%, respectively, at the time of writing. Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), released on Friday, reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 256K in December, significantly exceeding market expectations of 160K and surpassing the revised November figure of 212K (previously reported as 227K). Moreover, the US Unemployment Rate edged down to 4.1% in December from 4.2% in November. However, annual wage inflation, measured by the change in Average Hourly Earnings, dipped slightly to 3.9% from 4% in the prior reading. Additionally, the risk-sensitive Canadian Dollar (CAD) faces downward pressure amid growing concerns over President-elect Donald Trump's promises to impose tariffs on imports. "We are assuming that Trump implements tariffs on Canada this year, which is likely to weigh on the loonie," said Stephen Brown, Deputy Chief North America Economist at Capital Economics. On Sunday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated that while the government is not seeking a trade war with the new administration, it will have to respond if the US imposes tariffs on Canadian goods. However, the commodity-linked CAD may limit its losses as rising Oil prices provide support, given Canada’s position as the largest Oil exporter to the United States (US). West Texas Intermediate (WTI) extends its rally for the third consecutive session, trading near $77.00 per barrel, just below the $77.46 mark reached on Monday, the highest level since October 8. Crude Oil prices continue to rise amid heightened concerns over potential supply disruptions driven by new US sanctions on Russia's Oil industry. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

09:50 EUR/USD refreshes two-year low as traders reassess Fed policy outlook
EUR/USD slides to a fresh over two-year low to near 1.0200 at the start of the week.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD slumps to near 1.0200 as the US Dollar remains firm on expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates only once this year.Traders pare Fed dovish bets after upbeat US NFP data for December.ECB’s Lane supports more rate cuts to ensure the Eurozone doesn’t grow too slowly.EUR/USD slides to a fresh over two-year low to near 1.0200 at the start of the week. The major currency pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) performs strongly amid soaring bond yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, jumps to near 110.00, the highest level seen in over two years. 10-year US Treasury yields trade close to a fresh yearly high at around 4.75% US bond yields rallied amid growing speculation that the current policy-easing cycle by the Federal Reserve (Fed) has paused for now. Fed dovish bets squeezed after the release of the upbeat United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for December on Friday. Fresh payrolls were surprisingly higher than November’s reading, and the Unemployment Rate decelerated. "Given a resilient labor market, we now think the Fed cutting cycle is over," Bank of America (BofA) said in a note. The BofA added that the economic activity is “robust,” and sees “little reason for additional easing”. The bank also noted that risks to inflation have skewed to the upside. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates before its June policy meeting. This week, investors will pay close attention to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, which will be published on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD declines as risk-off mood weighs on Euro EUR/USD faces selling pressure due to dismal market sentiment, which has weighed heavily on the Euro (EUR). Investors have become risk-averse amid uncertainty that protectionist policies under US President-elect Donald Trump's administration will lead to a global trade war, diminishing the appeal of risk-perceived assets. Donald Trump is considering a declaration of national economic emergency that will allow him to construct a new tariff plan on legal grounds. In the election campaign, Trump threatened that the European Union (EU) would have to “pay a big price” for not buying “enough American exports”. Domestically, firm expectations of more policy-easing from the European Central Bank (ECB) keep the Euro on the back foot. In a "policy dialogue" at the Asian Financial Forum (AFF) 2025 on Monday, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said that more interest rate cuts from the central bank are likely as they need to make sure that the economy does not grow “too slowly”. Lane added that the ECB needs to choose the middle path of being “neither too aggressive nor too cautious” this year. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD posts fresh two-year low at 1.0200EUR/USD declines to near the key support on the weekly chart, plotted from the September 2022 high of 1.0200. The outlook for the major currency pair is broadly bearish as the 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0580 is declining. The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides below 30.00, indicating a strong downside momentum. Looking down, the pair could find support near the round level of 1.0100. Conversely, the January 6 high of 1.0437 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

09:36 Forex Today: King Dollar holds reins as the US inflation week unfolds
Here is what you need to know on Monday, January 13: Risk-off flows extended into Asian trading on Monday as investors digested Friday’s US labor market report, gearing up for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due later in the week.

09:34 GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Falls below 191.00 toward ascending channel’s lower boundary
The GBP/JPY cross extends its losing streak for the fifth consecutive day, trading around 191.00 during the early European hours on Monday.

09:13 USD/CHF gathers strength above 0.9150 on upbeat US NFP data, firmer US dollar
The USD/CHF pair gathers strength to near 0.9170 during the early European session on Monday, bolstered by the firmer US Dollar (USD).

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The Greenback extends its upside following a report that showed the US created more jobs than expected in December, supporting expectations that the Fed will pause its rate-cutting cycle at its January policy meeting. The CME FedWatch tool indicated the financial markets expect the Fed to keep its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range at its January meeting. The US central bank has lowered its policy rate by 100 basis points (bps) since starting its easing cycle in September 2024.

On the Swiss front, the economic uncertainties surrounding President-elect Donald Trump's administration's policies, along with the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Swiss Franc (CHF) against the USD. Israeli strikes continued throughout Gaza, including attacks near Gaza City, Nuseirat, and Bureij. Two attacks were also reported in the Houmin Valley in southern Lebanon, according to Lebanon’s National News Agency. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

09:01 Turkey Current Account Balance above expectations ($-3.1B) in November: Actual ($-2.871B)
Turkey Current Account Balance above expectations ($-3.1B) in November: Actual ($-2.871B)

08:14 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD declines below $30.50 on slower US Fed rate cut buzz, firmer US Dollar
The Silver price (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers to near $30.20 during the early European session on Monday.

07:58 FX option expiries for Jan 13 NY cut
FX option expiries for Jan 13 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Jan 13 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0200 3.9b 1.0250 2.5b 1.0300 5.1b 1.0310 2.4b 1.0375 3.4b GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2375 1.2b USD/JPY: USD amounts 156.50 460m 158.00 931m USD/CHF: USD amounts 0.8890 539m AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6335 608m USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.4410 540m

07:36 US Dollar Index surges to near 110.00 due to rising odds of Fed maintaining rates
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar’s (USD) performance against six major currencies, reached 109.98, the highest level since November 2022, during the Asian hours on Monday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US Dollar Index climbs as the latest employment report reinforces the Fed's decision to keep rates steady in January.Higher yields on US Treasury bonds are contributing support for the US Dollar.US Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 256K in December, exceeding expected 160K and November’s figure of 212K.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar’s (USD) performance against six major currencies, reached 109.98, the highest level since November 2022, during the Asian hours on Monday. The Greenback strengthened as the robust US labor market data for December will likely reinforce the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) stance to keep interest rates steady in January. Additionally, Friday's strong US jobs data led to a surge in US yields, with the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bond yields standing at 4.38% and 4.76%, respectively, at the time of writing. Higher yields are contributing support for the US Dollar. Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), released on Friday, reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 256K in December, significantly exceeding market expectations of 160K and surpassing the revised November figure of 212K (previously reported as 227K). Moreover, the US Unemployment Rate edged down to 4.1% in December from 4.2% in November. However, annual wage inflation, measured by the change in Average Hourly Earnings, dipped slightly to 3.9% from 4% in the prior reading. The latest FOMC Meeting Minutes indicated that policymakers agree that the process could take longer than previously anticipated due to recent hotter-than-expected readings on inflation and the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy under President-elect Trump’s administration. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem suggested that greater caution is warranted in reducing interest rates. Musalem added that the risk that inflation might get stuck between 2.5% and 3% had increased by the time of last month’s meeting, per Reuters. Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Michelle Bowman added her voice to a chorus of Fed speakers last week as policymakers work double-duty to try and smooth over market reactions to a much tighter pace of rate cuts in 2025 than many market participants had previously anticipated. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

07:24 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Dives to its lowest level since November 2023 amid relentless USD buying
The GBP/USD pair remains under heavy selling pressure for the fifth straight day and dives to its lowest level since November 2023, around the 1.2125 region during the Asian session on Monday.

07:09 EUR/USD tumbles to near 1.0200 on stronger US Dollar
The EUR/USD pair trades in negative territory for the fifth consecutive day around 1.0215 during the early Asian session on Monday.

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The US job growth unexpectedly rose in December while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, supporting the Greenback. Markets expect the Fed to hold the interest rate at the January meeting, with futures pricing after the employment report swinging to the expectation of just one rate cut this year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders have priced in odds of a single cut increased to 68.5% after the jobs report.

"The solid nonfarm payroll gain and decent earnings growth will keep the U.S. economic expansion on a sturdy foundation to start the year, and that will likely keep the Fed on the sidelines at the January meeting,” noted Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Across the pond, the dovish expectations from the European Central Bank (ECB) might weigh on the Euro (EUR) against the USD. Investors anticipate four interest rate reductions by the ECB, which are expected to occur at each meeting by summer. ECB policymaker François Villeroy said on Wednesday that while price pressures were projected to rise slightly in December, interest rates would continue progressing toward the neutral rate “without a slowdown in the pace by summer.” Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

07:01 Gold price retreats from one-month peak amid bullish USD, elevated US bond yields
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Monday and for now, seems to have snapped a four-day winning streak to the $2,700 neighborhood, or a one-month high touched on Friday.

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The upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will pause its rate-cutting cycle later this month. This keeps the US Treasury bond yields elevated near their highest level in over a year and the US Dollar (USD) near a two-year peak, which, in turn, exerts some pressure on the non-yielding yellow metal. Meanwhile, hawkish Fed expectations, along with persistent geopolitical tensions, dampen investors' appetite for riskier assets. This is evident from a weaker tone around the equity markets and should offer some support to the safe-haven Gold price. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the XAU/USD's move-up witnessed over the past three weeks or so has run its course and positioning for any meaningful corrective decline. Investors now look forward to this week's release of the US inflation figures for some meaningful impetus. Gold price drifts lower as upbeat US NFP reaffirms bets that the Fed will slow its rate-cutting cycle The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday that Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 256,000 in December, well above the 212,000 in the previous month and market expectations for a reading of 160,000. Other details of the report showed that the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly ticked lower to 4.1% from 4.2% and annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, declined to 3.9%. This comes on top of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish shift in December and dampens hopes for further interest rate cuts by the US central bank, pushing the US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar higher. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond has spiked to its highest level since late 2023, while the USD Index, which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, shot to over a two-year peak. Elevated US bond yields and a bullish USD act as a headwind for the Gold price on Monday, though the risk-off mood lends some support to the safe-haven bullion and helps limit any meaningful corrective slide. The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) said on Friday that the US and the UK administration imposed tougher sanctions against Russia's oil industry, targeting nearly 200 vessels of the so-called shadow fleet. The Russian Defence Ministry said on Sunday that Russian forces have carried out strikes on Ukrainian military airfields, personnel and vehicles in 139 locations using its air force, drones, missiles and artillery. In an apparent violation of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, more Israeli strikes have been reported in Lebanon. Moreover, Israeli strikes continued across Gaza amid renewed ceasefire talks. Gold price technical setup supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying at lower levelsFrom a technical perspective, any further slide is likely to attract fresh buyers and find decent support near the $2,665-2,664 area. A convincing break below, however, could make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerate the downfall towards the $2,635 region. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the $2,605 confluence, comprising the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (SMA) and a multi-week-old ascending trend-line support. On the flip side, bulls might now wait for a sustained strength beyond the $2,700 mark before placing fresh bets. Given that oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining positive traction and are still far from being in the overbought territory, the Gold price might then climb to the $2,715 region en route to the $2,730-2,732 area and the $2,746-2,748 supply zone. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

06:50 ECB’s Rehn: EU should not take hits because of tariffs
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn is speaking as part of a "policy dialogue" at the Asian Financial Forum (AFF) 2025, being held in Hong Kong on Monday.

06:45 ECB’s Lane: More easing from the Bank is likely
European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Phillip Lane is speaking as part of a "policy dialogue" at the Asian Financial Forum (AFF) 2025, being held in Hong Kong on Monday.

06:36 WTI trades around $77.00, reaches three-month highs following US sanctions on Russian Oil
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its gains for the third consecutive session, hovering around $77.00 per barrel, near $77.46—levels not seen since October 8—during the Asian trading hours on Monday.

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Crude Oil prices continue to climb amid growing concerns over potential supply disruptions triggered by new US sanctions on Russian Oil. On Friday, the US Treasury introduced broader sanctions on Russian Oil, targeting producers Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, as well as 183 vessels involved in transporting Russian Oil. These restrictions are expected to significantly disrupt Russia's ability to supply Oil to key markets like China and India, compelling these countries to explore alternatives in regions such as the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas. RBC Capital analysts, as reported by Reuters, noted in a statement, "The new Russian sanctions from the outgoing administration represent a net addition to at-risk supply, introducing more uncertainty to the first-quarter outlook." The latest round of sanctions targets ships involved in 1.5 million barrels per day of seaborne Russian crude oil activity on average in 2024. This includes 750,000 bpd of exports to China and 350,000 bpd to India. Additionally, Oil demand has risen following a stronger-than-expected US jobs report released on Friday, which signaled economic strength. In recent weeks, crude prices have been further supported by increased winter energy demand, declining US inventories, and speculation surrounding the policies of President-elect Donald Trump's incoming administration. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

06:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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The price for Gold stood at 7,455.15 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 7,467.92 it cost on Friday. The price for Gold decreased to INR 86,954.76 per tola from INR 87,104.32 per tola on friday. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 7,455.15 10 Grams 74,550.39 Tola 86,954.76 Troy Ounce 231,884.70 FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Related newsGold Price Forecast: Trump policy concerns offset hawkish Fed bets; what’s next for XAU/USD?Gold Weekly Forecast: US inflation data to test buyer confidence Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD loses ground below $2,700 amid firmer US DollarGold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

05:40 Australian Dollar halts its losing streak, draws support from China's stimulus measures
The Australian Dollar (AUD) pauses its four-day losing streak against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, stabilizing near its lowest level since April 2020.

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The AUD found some support from China's recent stimulus measures, helping the AUD/USD pair stage a modest recovery. Given the close trading relationship between Australia and China, any changes in China's economic conditions could significantly influence Australian markets. The China Foreign Exchange Committee (CFXC) pledged to support the Chinese Yuan during a meeting in Beijing on Monday, held under the guidance of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). Separately, the PBOC and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), China’s FX regulator, announced an increase in the macro-prudential adjustment parameter for cross-border financing from 1.5 to 1.75, effective January 13, 2025. China's trade surplus grew in December, with the Trade Balance reaching $104.84 billion, surpassing the expected $99.8 billion and the previous balance of $97.44 billion. Exports rose by 10.7% year-over-year, exceeding the forecasted 7.3% and the previous 6.7%. Meanwhile, Imports increased by 1% year-over-year, against the expected decline of 1.5% and the prior 3.9% fall. The AUD also received support after the release of the TD-MI Inflation Gauge, which climbed by 0.6% month-over-month in December, a significant acceleration from the 0.2% increase recorded in November, reaching its highest level since December 2023. On an annual basis, the Inflation Gauge rose by 2.6%, down from the previous 2.9% increase. The Aussie Dollar faces downward pressure as markets now price in a 75% probability of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) next month. Investors are expected to closely monitor Australian employment data, set to be released later this week, for additional clarity on the RBA's policy outlook. Australian Dollar could resume its decline amid increased hawkish mood surrounding Fed The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar’s performance against six major currencies, remains above 109.50, close to the highest since November 2022. The Greenback strengthened as the robust US labor market data for December will likely reinforce the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) stance to keep interest rates steady in January. Friday's strong US jobs data led to a surge in US yields, with the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bond yields standing at 4.38% and 4.76%, respectively, at the time of writing. Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), released on Friday, reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 256K in December, significantly exceeding market expectations of 160K and surpassing the revised November figure of 212K (previously reported as 227K). The US Unemployment Rate edged down to 4.1% in December from 4.2% in November. However, annual wage inflation, measured by the change in Average Hourly Earnings, dipped slightly to 3.9% from 4% in the prior reading. The latest FOMC Meeting Minutes indicated that policymakers agree that the process could take longer than previously anticipated due to recent hotter-than-expected readings on inflation and the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy under President-elect Trump’s administration. Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Michelle Bowman added her voice to a chorus of Fed speakers this week as policymakers work double-duty to try and smooth over market reactions to a much tighter pace of rate cuts in 2025 than many market participants had previously anticipated. Kansas Fed President Jeffrey Schmid made headlines on Thursday, stating that most of the Federal Reserve's mandated targets have recently been achieved. Schmid emphasized the need to reduce the Fed's balance sheet, suggesting that interest rate policy is approaching its long-term equilibrium. He noted that any future rate cuts should be gradual and guided by economic data. ANZ Job Advertisements increased by 0.3% month-over-month in December, recovering from a revised 1.8% decline in November. This improvement indicates that the labor market remains resilient despite elevated interest rates. People's Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Pan Gongsheng stated on Monday that "interest rate and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) tools will be utilized to maintain ample liquidity." Gongsheng reaffirmed China's plans to increase the fiscal deficit and emphasized that China will continue to be a driving force for the global economy. Australia's monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.3% year-over-year in November, surpassing the market forecast of 2.2% and marking an increase from the 2.1% rise seen in the previous two months. This is the highest reading since August. However, the figure remains within the RBA’s target range of 2–3% for the fourth consecutive month, aided by the ongoing impact of the Energy Bill Relief Fund rebate. Australian Dollar moves below 0.6150; bullish divergence seen on RSI The AUD/USD pair trades around 0.6160 on Monday, maintaining a bearish outlook as it continues to move within a descending channel on the daily chart. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at the 30 level, signaling an oversold condition and suggesting a potential upward correction soon. In terms of support, the AUD/USD pair could test the lower boundary of the descending channel near the 0.5950 level. Immediate resistance is found near the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6196, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6214. A stronger resistance lies at the upper boundary of the descending channel, around 0.6230. AUD/USD: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.23% 0.51% -0.22% 0.11% 0.00% -0.04% 0.04% EUR -0.23% 0.25% -0.37% -0.07% -0.09% -0.21% -0.11% GBP -0.51% -0.25% -0.65% -0.31% -0.34% -0.46% -0.36% JPY 0.22% 0.37% 0.65% 0.33% 0.16% 0.05% 0.27% CAD -0.11% 0.07% 0.31% -0.33% -0.14% -0.15% 0.01% AUD -0.01% 0.09% 0.34% -0.16% 0.14% -0.16% -0.02% NZD 0.04% 0.21% 0.46% -0.05% 0.15% 0.16% 0.10% CHF -0.04% 0.11% 0.36% -0.27% -0.01% 0.02% -0.10% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

05:35 NZD/USD sticks to modest gains above mid-0.5500s after China’s Trade Balance data
The NZD/USD pair kicks off the new week on a positive note and for now, seems to have snapped a four-day losing streak to its lowest level since October 2022 touched on Friday.

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Hawkish Fed expectations continue to underpin the USD and cap spot prices.The NZD/USD pair kicks off the new week on a positive note and for now, seems to have snapped a four-day losing streak to its lowest level since October 2022 touched on Friday. Spot prices stick to modest intraday gains around the 0.5565 area and move little following the release of China's Trade Balance data. The Customs General Administration of China reported that the trade surplus widened to CNY752.91 billion in December from the previous figure of CNY692.8 billion in the wake of a 10.9% YoY jump in exports. Additional details of the report revealed that the country’s imports rose by 1.3% YoY in the same period vs. 1.2% registered in November. The market reaction, however, turns out to be muted amid concerns about a fragile economy, which, in turn, keeps a lid on any meaningful appreciation for antipodean currencies, including the Kiwi. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, stands tall near its highest level in over two years amid growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will pause its rate-cutting cycle later this month. The expectations were reinforced by Friday's upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which showed that the economy added 256,000 in December compared to 212,000 previous and market expectations for a reading of 160,000. Adding to this, the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly edged lower to 4.1% from 4.2% registered in November. Meanwhile, hawkish Fed expectations, along with geopolitical risks, temper investors' appetite for riskier assets. This is evident from a generally weaker tone around the equity markets, which further seems to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven buck and contribute to capping the risk-sensitive Kiwi. Adding to this, bets for a more aggressive policy easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) warrant some caution before confirming that the NZD/USD pair has formed a near-term bottom and positioning for additional gains. Economic Indicator Trade Balance CNY The Trade Balance released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the CNY. As the Chinese economy has influence on the global economy, this economic indicator would have an impact on the Forex market. In general, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the CNY. Read more. Last release: Mon Jan 13, 2025 03:00 Frequency: MonthlyActual: 752.91BConsensus: -Previous: 692.8BSource: National Bureau of Statistics of China

05:07 China’s Trade Balance: Surplus widens in December as Exports jump
China's Trade Balance for December, in Chinese Yuan (CNY) terms, came in at CNY752.91 billion, expanding from the previous figure of CNY692.8 billion.

China's Trade Balance for December, in Chinese Yuan (CNY) terms, came in at CNY752.91 billion, expanding from the previous figure of CNY692.8 billion. Exports climbed by 10.9% YoY in December vs. 1.5% in November. The country’s imports rose by 1.3% YoY in the same period vs. 1.2% registered previously. In US Dollar (USD) terms, China’s trade surplus expanded in December. Trade Balance came in at +104.84B versus +99.8B expected and +97.44B previous. Exports (YoY): 10.7% vs. 7.3% expected and 6.7% previous. Imports (YoY): 1% vs. -1.5% expected and -3.9% last.

05:03 China Exports (YoY) CNY up to 10.9% in December from previous 1.5%
China Exports (YoY) CNY up to 10.9% in December from previous 1.5%

05:01 China Trade Balance USD registered at $104.84B above expectations ($99.8B) in December
China Trade Balance USD registered at $104.84B above expectations ($99.8B) in December

05:01 China Imports (YoY) registered at 1% above expectations (-1.5%) in December
China Imports (YoY) registered at 1% above expectations (-1.5%) in December

05:01 USD/INR weakens ahead of Indian CPI inflation release
The Indian Rupee (INR) recovers some lost ground on Monday after reaching a record low in the previous session.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Indian Rupee gains momentum in Monday’s Asian session. The likely RBI intervention supports the INR; firmer USD, foreign outflows, higher oil prices might weigh on the local currency. India’s December CPI inflation data will be the highlight on Monday. The Indian Rupee (INR) recovers some lost ground on Monday after reaching a record low in the previous session. The routine interventions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) by offering US Dollar (USD) might have helped limit the INR’s losses.

The stronger-than-expected US employment data on Friday reinforced expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might not cut interest rates as aggressively this year. This, in turn, might provide some support to the Greenback and exert some selling pressure on the local currency. Additionally, heavy outflows from domestic equities, hawkish remarks from the Fed and a rise in crude oil prices could drag the INR lower, as India is the world's third-largest oil consumer.

Later on Monday, traders will keep an eye on India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to show an increase of 5.3% YoY in December. On the US docket, the Monthly Budget Statement will be released. Indian Rupee rebounds, upside potentially limited as RBI might ditch quasi-peg The Indian Rupee may fall past 90 per Dollar this year as the monetary authority prepares to ditch the currency’s implicit quasi-peg to the USD, according to Gavekal Research. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 256K in December, compared to a 212K increase (revised from 227K) seen in November, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday. This reading came in stronger than the 160K expected by a wide margin. The Unemployment Rate in the US ticked lower to 4.1% in December from 4.2% in November. The Average Hourly Earnings declined to 3.9% in December versus 4.0% prior. Fed Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday that if conditions are stable and there is no uptick in inflation, with full employment, the interest rates should go down, per Reuters. Fed St. Louis President Alberto Musalem highlighted greater caution is warranted in reducing interest rates, adding that the risk that inflation might get stuck between 2.5% and 3% had increased by the time of last month’s meeting. USD/INR’s uptrend remains in play, overbought RSI warrants caution for bulls The Indian Rupee trades on a positive note on the day. The stronger uptrend of the USD/INR remains in place, with the pair holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves beyond the 70.00 mark, indicating the overbought condition. This suggests that further consolidation is on the cards.

The first upside barrier for USD/INR emerges at an all-time high of 86.15. Consistent trading above this level could draw in enough demand to 86.50.

On the flip side, the initial support level for the pair is seen at 85.85, the low of January 10. If bears are taking the upper hand, this could be followed by a drop to 85.65, the low of January 7, followed by the 85.00 psychological support level. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

05:00 China Trade Balance CNY increased to 752.91B in December from previous 692.8B
China Trade Balance CNY increased to 752.91B in December from previous 692.8B

05:00 China Exports (YoY) above forecasts (7.3%) in December: Actual (10.7%)
China Exports (YoY) above forecasts (7.3%) in December: Actual (10.7%)

04:55 Japanese Yen remains on the front foot against USD; upside potential seems limited
The Japanese Yen (JPY) ticks higher against its American counterpart for the third successive day on Monday and moves away from a multi-month low touched last week.

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The BoJ rate hike uncertainty might hold back the JPY bulls from placing fresh bets. Hawkish Fed expectations underpin the USD and lend support to the USD/JPY pair.The Japanese Yen (JPY) ticks higher against its American counterpart for the third successive day on Monday and moves away from a multi-month low touched last week. The risk-off impulse – as depicted by a weaker tone around the equity markets – turns out to be a key factor underpinning the safe-haven JPY. However, doubts over the BoJ's rate hike plans should cap gains for the JPY. The broadening inflationary pressure in Japan keeps the door open for another BoJ rate hike in January or March. That said, some investors are betting that the BoJ may wait until April to seek confirmation that strong wage momentum will carry over into the spring negotiations. Furthermore, the recent widening of the US-Japan yield differential could also contribute to capping the JPY. Apart from this, the underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD), bolstered by expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will pause its rate-cutting cycle, should act as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair. In the absence of any relevant economic releases, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants caution before positioning for any further JPY appreciating move. Japanese Yen draws support from the global flight to safety mode; lacks bullish conviction A mix of geopolitical tensions and rate jitters temper investors' appetite for riskier assets, which, in turn, benefits traditional safe-haven assets and drives flows towards the Japanese Yen for the third straight day on Monday. The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) said on Friday that the US and the UK administration imposed tougher sanctions against Russia's oil industry, targeting nearly 200 vessels of the so-called shadow fleet. The Russian Defence Ministry said on Sunday that Russian forces have carried out strikes on Ukrainian military airfields, personnel and vehicles in 139 locations using its air force, drones, missiles and artillery. In an apparent violation of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, more Israeli strikes have been reported in Lebanon. Moreover, Israeli strikes continued across Gaza amid renewed ceasefire talks. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday that Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 256,000 in December compared to 212,000 in the previous month and market expectations for a reading of 160,000. Other details showed that the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly edged lower to 4.1% from 4.2%, while annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, declined to 3.9%. The upbeat US jobs report reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause its rate-cutting cycle at its upcoming policy meeting later this month amid lingering inflation and political uncertainty. This, in turn, pushed the US Dollar to over a two-year peak and the US Treasury yields to the highest in over a year, widening the US-Japan yield differential, which should cap the upside for the lower-yielding JPY. The market focus now shifts to the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, which will play a key role in influencing the USD/JPY pair. USD/JPY might continue to attract some dip-buyers; 156.00 holds the key for bullsFrom a technical perspective, Friday's low, around the 157.20-157.20 region, could offer immediate support ahead of the 157.00 mark and the 156.80-156.75 support zone. Any further weakness could be seen as a buying opportunity near last week's swing low, around the 156.25-156.20 area. This should help limit the downside for the USD/JPY pair near the 156.00 mark, which if broken decisively might shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders and pave the way for deeper losses. On the flip side, the Asian session high, around the 158.00 neighborhood, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 158.45-158.50 region and the 158.85-158.90 zone, or the multi-month peak touched on Friday. Some follow-through buying beyond the 159.00 mark will be seen as a fresh trigger for bulls and lift the USD/JPY pair towards the next relevant hurdle near mid-159.00s en route to the 160.00 psychological mark. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

04:39 China Customs: There is still big room for import growth this year
An official at China Customs said on Monday that “there is still big room for China's import growth this year.” Additional headlines China's 2024 imports value at CNY18.39 trillion.

03:58 PBOC Governor Pan: Interest rate and RRR tools will be utilized to maintain ample liquidity
People's Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Pan Gosheng said on Monday that “interest rate and RRR tools will be utilized to maintain ample liquidity.” Additional comments Reaffirms China plans to increase the fiscal deficit.

People's Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Pan Gongsheng said on Monday that “interest rate and RRR tools will be utilized to maintain ample liquidity.” Additional comments Reaffirms China plans to increase the fiscal deficit. China will remain a driving force for the global economy. Policy focus should shift towards investment and consumption. Challenges persist in China's economic development. Emphasis will be placed on boosting residents' consumption demand. China's real estate market is reaching a new equilibrium. Will significantly increase China's national foreign exchange reserve allocation in Hong Kong. Will support Hong Kong monetary authority to use exchange funds to replenish the offshore Renminbi market.

03:50 EUR/USD falls below 1.0250 due to increased likelihood of Fed keeping rates steady
EUR/USD attempts to halt its four-day losing streak, holding its position around 1.0240 during the Asian trading hours.

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The pair faces challenges as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens following stronger-than-expected job growth in the United States (US) for December. Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), released on Friday, reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 256K in December, significantly exceeding market expectations of 160K and surpassing the revised November figure of 212K (previously reported as 227K). Additionally, the Unemployment Rate edged down to 4.1% in December from 4.2% in November. However, annual wage inflation, measured by the change in Average Hourly Earnings, dipped slightly to 3.9% from 4% in the prior reading. The robust US labor market data for December will likely reinforce the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) stance to keep interest rates steady in January, supporting the Greenback against other currencies. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, financial markets anticipate the Fed will maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range during its January 28-29 meeting. Additionally, the Euro (EUR) faces headwinds as traders anticipate four interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB), which are expected to occur at each meeting by summer. ECB policymakers appear comfortable with these dovish expectations, as inflationary pressures in the Eurozone remain largely under control. On Wednesday, ECB policymaker and Bank of France Governor François Villeroy noted that while price pressures were projected to rise slightly in December, interest rates would continue progressing toward the neutral rate “without a slowdown in the pace by summer,” provided upcoming data confirm that the “pullback in price pressures won’t persist.” Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

03:36 USD/CAD extends the rally above 1.4400 on bullish US Dollar
The USD/CAD pair extends its upside to near 1.4430 during the Asian trading hours on Monday.

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The upbeat US employment report supported the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious stance toward rate cuts this year, supporting the USD. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 256K in December versus 212K prior (revised from 227K), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday. This reading came in above the market consensus of 160K. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate edged lower to 4.1% in December from 4.2% in November.

Furthermore, the mounting fears that pledges by President-elect Donald Trump to impose tariffs on imports might could undermine the CAD. ”We are assuming that Trump hits Canada with tariffs this year, which is likely to weigh on the loonie," said Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics.

On Sunday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that the government isn’t looking for a trade war with the new administration but will have to retaliate if the US puts tariffs on Canadian products. Meanwhile, higher crude oil prices could lift the CAD. It's worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the United States (US), and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

03:34 China Foreign Exchange Committee pledges to support the Yuan
China Foreign Exchange Committee (CFXC) vowed to support the Chinese Yuan in a meeting held in Beijing under the guidance of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) on Monday.

China Foreign Exchange Committee (CFXC) vowed to support the Chinese Yuan in a meeting held in Beijing under the guidance of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) on Monday. Key takeaways The meeting discussed resolutely keeping the yuan exchange rate basically stable and at balanced levels To increase forex market resilience, strengthen forex market. Measures announced to correct pro-cyclical market activities, deal with behaviors disrupting market orders, prevent exchange rate overshooting risks.

03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1885 vs. 7.1891 previous
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1885 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.1891 and 7.3442 Reuters estimates.

On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1885 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.1891 and 7.3442 Reuters estimates.

02:58 GBP/USD languishes near its lowest level since November 2023, around 1.2200 mark
The GBP/USD pair enters a bearish consolidation phase at the start of a new week and languishes near its lowest level since November 2023 touched on Friday, around the 1.2200 mark during the Asian session.

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The upbeat US jobs data reinforced hawkish Fed bets and pushed the USD to a two-year top.The GBP/USD pair enters a bearish consolidation phase at the start of a new week and languishes near its lowest level since November 2023 touched on Friday, around the 1.2200 mark during the Asian session. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of bearish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside. The British Pound (GBP) continues with its relative underperformance in the wake of concerns over stagflation in the UK amid stubborn inflation and stalling growth. Furthermore, the recent rise in the UK government bond yields has raised anxiety about the UK’s fiscal health, which is seen as another factor undermining the GBP and validates the negative outlook for the GBP/USD pair amid a bullish US Dollar (USD). In fact, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, shot to over a two-year top on Friday in reaction to the upbeat US jobs data. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed that the US economy added 256K jobs in December, surpassing even the most optimistic estimates, while the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly dipped to 4.1%, reinforcing hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. Investors now seem convinced that the Fed will pause its rate-cutting cycle at its policy meeting later this month and are also pricing in the possibility of an interest rate hike later this year. The outlook remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which, along with the risk-off impulse, supports prospects for a further appreciating move for the safe-haven buck and additional losses for the GBP/USD pair. That said, a slightly oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart makes it prudent to wait for some consolidation or a modest bounce before positioning for the next leg of a downfall. Nevertheless, the GBP/USD pair seems vulnerable to weaken further towards testing sub-1.2100 levels, or the November 2023 swing low, in the absence of any relevant economic data from the UK or the US. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

02:44 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD loses ground below $2,700 amid firmer US Dollar
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild losses near $2,690 on the stronger US Dollar (USD) broadly during the early Asian session on Monday.

02:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements up to 0.3% in December from previous -1.3%
Australia ANZ Job Advertisements up to 0.3% in December from previous -1.3%

02:05 Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (YoY) declined to 2.6% in December from previous 2.9%
Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (YoY) declined to 2.6% in December from previous 2.9%

02:02 Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (MoM): 0.6% (December) vs 0.2%
Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (MoM): 0.6% (December) vs 0.2%

01:42 US and UK tighten sanctions on Russian oil industry
The United States (USD) and the United Kingdom (UK) administration imposed tougher sanctions against Russia's oil industry, targeting nearly 200 vessels of the so-called "shadow fleet," major oil companies, and associated entities, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) said on Friday.

01:21 Canadian PM Trudeau says has counter-tariffs ready If Trump launches a trade war
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Sunday that Canada is ready to respond with counter-tariffs against the United States if President-elect Donald Trump follows through on his threat to start a trade war in North America, per Bloomberg.

01:12 AUD/USD holds below 0.6150 on bullish US Dollar, stronger US NFP report
The AUD/USD pair remains on the defensive around 0.6145 during the early Asian session on Monday.

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Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday showed that the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 256K in December, compared to a 212K increase (revised from 227K) seen in November. This reading surpassed the market expectation of 160K by a wide margin.

Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate ticked lower to 4.1% in December from 4.2% in November. Finally, annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, dropped to 3.9% in December from 4% in the previous reading.

The upbeat US labor market data for December is likely to convince the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates unchanged this month, which underpins the Greenback against the Australian Dollar (AUD). According to the CME FedWatch tool, financial markets expect the US central bank to keep its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range at its January 28-29 meeting. "It would take a very bad set of jobs reports to get the Fed easing again by March, and, so, we now see the next cut in June followed by a final one in September," said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan.

On the other hand, the Aussie remains under selling pressure against the USD, lowest level since April 2020. The slower growth and deflationary risks in China continue to undermine the China-proxy AUD. The Citi economists said that the final quarter of last year was expected to be the seventh in a row in which China’s GDP deflator was negative. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

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16:09 AUD/USD rises to near 0.6150 despite USD’s solid performance The AUD/USD pair moves higher to near 0.6150 in Monday’s North American session.

15:16 USD/CAD ticks lower to near 1.4420 as BoC unlikely to continue reducing rates by 50 bps The USD/CAD pair edges lower to near 1.440 in Monday’s North American session.

15:01 US Dollar higher with concerns on Fed’s policy fueling more upside The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, edges higher for the fifth straight day and trades around 110.00, at levels not seen since November 2022, on Monday.

13:16 USD/JPY declines to near 157.30 despite USD Index refreshes two-year high The USD/JPY pair slumps to near 157.30 in Monday’s European session.

12:16 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slumps to near $30 as traders reassess Fed’s interest rate outlook Silver price (XAG/USD) falls sharply to near $30.00 after failing to extend its upside above the key hurdle of $30.60 in Monday’s European session.

12:05 Greece Consumer Price Index - Harmonized (YoY) fell from previous 3% to 2.9% in December Greece Consumer Price Index - Harmonized (YoY) fell from previous 3% to 2.9% in December

12:01 Greece Consumer Price Index (YoY) increased to 2.6% in December from previous 2.4% Greece Consumer Price Index (YoY) increased to 2.6% in December from previous 2.4%

11:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Monday, according to FXStreet data.

11:29 Pound Sterling extends losing spell as soaring UK yields weigh on economic outlook The Pound Sterling (GBP) extends its losing streak against its major peers at the start of the week.

11:19 WTI trims a part of strong gains to its highest level sine October, still well bid around $77.00 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices build on Friday's strong move up and gain follow-through positive traction for the third straight day on Monday.

11:07 ECB’s Vujčić: Central bank unlikely to accelerate rate cuts European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Boris Vujčić said on Monday that the “ECB is unlikely to accelerate rate cuts.” Additional quotes Cutting faster would need a more significant departure from out projections.

11:05 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Drops to near 0.5550 within the oversold territory The NZD/USD pair continues its losing streak that began on January 7, trading around 0.5550 during the European hours on Monday.

10:36 EUR/GBP climbs above 0.8400 amid growing concerns about stagflation in the United Kingdom EUR/GBP extends its strength for the fourth consecutive day, trading near 0.8410 during Monday’s European session.

10:00 USD/CAD advances to near 1.4450 as US jobs figures bolster hawkish mood surrounding Fed USD/CAD continues to gain ground for the fifth successive day, trading around 1.4440 during the European hours on Monday.

09:50 EUR/USD refreshes two-year low as traders reassess Fed policy outlook EUR/USD slides to a fresh over two-year low to near 1.0200 at the start of the week.

09:34 GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Falls below 191.00 toward ascending channel’s lower boundary The GBP/JPY cross extends its losing streak for the fifth consecutive day, trading around 191.00 during the early European hours on Monday.

09:13 USD/CHF gathers strength above 0.9150 on upbeat US NFP data, firmer US dollar The USD/CHF pair gathers strength to near 0.9170 during the early European session on Monday, bolstered by the firmer US Dollar (USD).

09:01 Turkey Current Account Balance above expectations ($-3.1B) in November: Actual ($-2.871B) Turkey Current Account Balance above expectations ($-3.1B) in November: Actual ($-2.871B)

08:14 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD declines below $30.50 on slower US Fed rate cut buzz, firmer US Dollar The Silver price (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers to near $30.20 during the early European session on Monday.

07:58 FX option expiries for Jan 13 NY cut FX option expiries for Jan 13 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

07:36 US Dollar Index surges to near 110.00 due to rising odds of Fed maintaining rates The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar’s (USD) performance against six major currencies, reached 109.98, the highest level since November 2022, during the Asian hours on Monday.

07:24 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Dives to its lowest level since November 2023 amid relentless USD buying The GBP/USD pair remains under heavy selling pressure for the fifth straight day and dives to its lowest level since November 2023, around the 1.2125 region during the Asian session on Monday.

07:09 EUR/USD tumbles to near 1.0200 on stronger US Dollar The EUR/USD pair trades in negative territory for the fifth consecutive day around 1.0215 during the early Asian session on Monday.

07:01 Gold price retreats from one-month peak amid bullish USD, elevated US bond yields Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Monday and for now, seems to have snapped a four-day winning streak to the $2,700 neighborhood, or a one-month high touched on Friday.

06:50 ECB’s Rehn: EU should not take hits because of tariffs European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn is speaking as part of a "policy dialogue" at the Asian Financial Forum (AFF) 2025, being held in Hong Kong on Monday.

06:45 ECB’s Lane: More easing from the Bank is likely European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Phillip Lane is speaking as part of a "policy dialogue" at the Asian Financial Forum (AFF) 2025, being held in Hong Kong on Monday.

06:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

05:40 Australian Dollar halts its losing streak, draws support from China's stimulus measures The Australian Dollar (AUD) pauses its four-day losing streak against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, stabilizing near its lowest level since April 2020.

05:35 NZD/USD sticks to modest gains above mid-0.5500s after China’s Trade Balance data The NZD/USD pair kicks off the new week on a positive note and for now, seems to have snapped a four-day losing streak to its lowest level since October 2022 touched on Friday.

05:07 China’s Trade Balance: Surplus widens in December as Exports jump China's Trade Balance for December, in Chinese Yuan (CNY) terms, came in at CNY752.91 billion, expanding from the previous figure of CNY692.8 billion.

05:03 China Exports (YoY) CNY up to 10.9% in December from previous 1.5% China Exports (YoY) CNY up to 10.9% in December from previous 1.5%

05:01 China Trade Balance USD registered at $104.84B above expectations ($99.8B) in December China Trade Balance USD registered at $104.84B above expectations ($99.8B) in December

05:01 China Imports (YoY) registered at 1% above expectations (-1.5%) in December China Imports (YoY) registered at 1% above expectations (-1.5%) in December

05:01 USD/INR weakens ahead of Indian CPI inflation release The Indian Rupee (INR) recovers some lost ground on Monday after reaching a record low in the previous session.

05:00 China Trade Balance CNY increased to 752.91B in December from previous 692.8B China Trade Balance CNY increased to 752.91B in December from previous 692.8B

05:00 China Exports (YoY) above forecasts (7.3%) in December: Actual (10.7%) China Exports (YoY) above forecasts (7.3%) in December: Actual (10.7%)

04:55 Japanese Yen remains on the front foot against USD; upside potential seems limited The Japanese Yen (JPY) ticks higher against its American counterpart for the third successive day on Monday and moves away from a multi-month low touched last week.

04:39 China Customs: There is still big room for import growth this year An official at China Customs said on Monday that “there is still big room for China's import growth this year.” Additional headlines China's 2024 imports value at CNY18.39 trillion.

03:50 EUR/USD falls below 1.0250 due to increased likelihood of Fed keeping rates steady EUR/USD attempts to halt its four-day losing streak, holding its position around 1.0240 during the Asian trading hours.

03:36 USD/CAD extends the rally above 1.4400 on bullish US Dollar The USD/CAD pair extends its upside to near 1.4430 during the Asian trading hours on Monday.

03:34 China Foreign Exchange Committee pledges to support the Yuan China Foreign Exchange Committee (CFXC) vowed to support the Chinese Yuan in a meeting held in Beijing under the guidance of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) on Monday.

03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1885 vs. 7.1891 previous On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1885 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.1891 and 7.3442 Reuters estimates.

02:58 GBP/USD languishes near its lowest level since November 2023, around 1.2200 mark The GBP/USD pair enters a bearish consolidation phase at the start of a new week and languishes near its lowest level since November 2023 touched on Friday, around the 1.2200 mark during the Asian session.

02:44 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD loses ground below $2,700 amid firmer US Dollar Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild losses near $2,690 on the stronger US Dollar (USD) broadly during the early Asian session on Monday.

02:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements up to 0.3% in December from previous -1.3% Australia ANZ Job Advertisements up to 0.3% in December from previous -1.3%

02:05 Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (YoY) declined to 2.6% in December from previous 2.9% Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (YoY) declined to 2.6% in December from previous 2.9%

02:02 Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (MoM): 0.6% (December) vs 0.2% Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (MoM): 0.6% (December) vs 0.2%

01:12 AUD/USD holds below 0.6150 on bullish US Dollar, stronger US NFP report The AUD/USD pair remains on the defensive around 0.6145 during the early Asian session on Monday.

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