외환거래 뉴스 타임라인
23:27 Australian Dollar rebounds toward 0.6150 as US Dollar fades post-Fed Mminutes, tariff pivot
The Australian Dollar strengthened during Wednesday’s American session, climbing toward the mid-0.6100s as the US Dollar continued to retreat amid a risk-on rally in global markets.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD rallies toward the 0.6150 zone in Wednesday’s US session, buoyed by risk-on flows and broad Greenback weakness.Trump’s surprise 90-day pause on key tariffs lifts sentiment, but Fed officials warn about long-term inflation risks.Despite the bounce, AUD/USD retains a bearish technical tone with key moving averages and oscillators flashing mixed signals.
The Australian Dollar strengthened during Wednesday’s American session, climbing toward the mid-0.6100s as the US Dollar continued to retreat amid a risk-on rally in global markets. The pair rebounded sharply after US President Donald Trump abruptly paused most tariffs for 90 days, sparking a surge in equities and helping risk-sensitive currencies. The Fed’s March Mmeeting Mminutes, released during the session, revealed policymakers are grappling with “difficult tradeoffs” due to persistent inflation pressures and a weakening growth outlook. From a technical standpoint, AUD/USD remains biased to the downside despite Wednesdaytoday’s bounce, as momentum indicators and moving averages continue to favor sellers.
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar clings to recovery after Fed signals caution
The US Dollar Index (DXY) held near the 103.00 area on Wednesday after recent heavy losses, finding some stability following the release of the Federal Reserve’s March Mmeeting Mminutes. The Mminutes acknowledged an economic crossroads, highlighting that inflation risks may endure even as growth softens.President Trump’s unexpected move to pause most “reciprocal” and 10% tariffs for 90 days boosted market sentiment, lifting the Dow Jones above the 40,000 level in a historic surge. Despite this, tariffs on China remain intact and were raised to 125% in response to Beijing’s 84% countermeasure.Fed officials struck a cautious tone, noting that uncertainty surrounding trade and inflation dynamics limits their ability to move swiftly on interest rates. Richmond Fed’s Barkin and St. Louis Fed’s Musalem emphasized that tariffs complicate the policy landscape and could delay future rate adjustments.Risk appetite returned broadly as global investors welcomed the temporary tariff relief. However, markets remain wary of lingering trade tensions, especially given China’s exclusion from the pause.AUD benefited from the softer USD backdrop, but its upside may be capped as trade disruptions weigh heavily on Australia’s China-dependent export economy and support RBA dovish expectations.
Technical analysisAUD/USD surged toward the top half of its intraday range but remains below major technical hurdles, with its broader trend still skewed to the downside. While price action turned higher, technical indicators paint a mixed picture.The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to print red bars, reinforcing a bearish trend despite today’s rally. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below 50, reflecting a flat yet slightly negative tone. Interestingly, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) shows a buy signal, while the Stochastic oscillator sits in neutral territory, highlighting a lack of any strong conviction.Moving averages remain clearly bearish. The 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages all slope downward, offering resistance ahead. The 10-day Exponential Moving Average and 10-day SMA — around the 0.6130–0.6170 area — also suggest headwinds for bulls.
US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
The Australian Dollar strengthened during Wednesday’s American session, climbing toward the mid-0.6100s as the US Dollar continued to retreat amid a risk-on rally in global markets. The pair rebounded sharply after US President Donald Trump abruptly paused most tariffs for 90 days, sparking a surge in equities and helping risk-sensitive currencies. The Fed’s March Mmeeting Mminutes, released during the session, revealed policymakers are grappling with “difficult tradeoffs” due to persistent inflation pressures and a weakening growth outlook. From a technical standpoint, AUD/USD remains biased to the downside despite Wednesdaytoday’s bounce, as momentum indicators and moving averages continue to favor sellers.
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar clings to recovery after Fed signals caution
The US Dollar Index (DXY) held near the 103.00 area on Wednesday after recent heavy losses, finding some stability following the release of the Federal Reserve’s March Mmeeting Mminutes. The Mminutes acknowledged an economic crossroads, highlighting that inflation risks may endure even as growth softens.President Trump’s unexpected move to pause most “reciprocal” and 10% tariffs for 90 days boosted market sentiment, lifting the Dow Jones above the 40,000 level in a historic surge. Despite this, tariffs on China remain intact and were raised to 125% in response to Beijing’s 84% countermeasure.Fed officials struck a cautious tone, noting that uncertainty surrounding trade and inflation dynamics limits their ability to move swiftly on interest rates. Richmond Fed’s Barkin and St. Louis Fed’s Musalem emphasized that tariffs complicate the policy landscape and could delay future rate adjustments.Risk appetite returned broadly as global investors welcomed the temporary tariff relief. However, markets remain wary of lingering trade tensions, especially given China’s exclusion from the pause.AUD benefited from the softer USD backdrop, but its upside may be capped as trade disruptions weigh heavily on Australia’s China-dependent export economy and support RBA dovish expectations.
Technical analysisAUD/USD surged toward the top half of its intraday range but remains below major technical hurdles, with its broader trend still skewed to the downside. While price action turned higher, technical indicators paint a mixed picture.The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to print red bars, reinforcing a bearish trend despite today’s rally. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below 50, reflecting a flat yet slightly negative tone. Interestingly, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) shows a buy signal, while the Stochastic oscillator sits in neutral territory, highlighting a lack of any strong conviction.Moving averages remain clearly bearish. The 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages all slope downward, offering resistance ahead. The 10-day Exponential Moving Average and 10-day SMA — around the 0.6130–0.6170 area — also suggest headwinds for bulls.
US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
22:40 Forex Today: The release of US CPI grabs all the attention
The Greenback reversed its initial loses to three-day lows and ended the session virtually unchanged in response to a late recovery fuelled by President Trump’s announcement of a 90-day delay on reciprocal tariffs.
The Greenback reversed its initial loses to three-day lows and ended the session virtually unchanged in response to a late recovery fuelled by President Trump’s announcement of a 90-day delay on reciprocal tariffs.Here is what you need to know on Thursday, April 10: The US Dollar Index (DXY) sold off to the sub-102.00 region, just to reverse that move towards the end of the NA session, helped by a decent bounce in US yields. The Inflation Rate will take centre stage on April 10, followed by the usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims. In addition, the Fed’s Logan and Goolsbee are due to speak.EUR/USD added to Tuesday’s uptick and approached the 1.1100 region on the back of the intense pullback in the Greenback. The final Inflation Rate in Germany and the Current Account results are due on April 11.GBP/USD managed to regain the smile and advance past the 1.2800 hurdle, or two-day highs. On April 11, the UK docket will feature GDP readings, Goods Trade Balance results, Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Construction Output, and the NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker.USD/JPY retested the area beyond the 148.00 mark, hitting at the same time four-day highs. Producer Prices and the weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures will be published on the domestic calendar.AUD/USD advanced markedly and regain the 0.6100 region soon after bottoming out in fresh lows near 0.5900 the figure. Consumer Inflation Expectations gauged by the Melbourne Institue are due.WTI prices jumped to the vicinity of the $63.00 mark per barrel, reversing an initial pullback to the $55.00 zone, levels last traded in February 2021, all against the backdrop of rising optimism following Trump’s news on tariffs.Gold prices added to Tuesday’s slight uptick, rising strongly to the vicinity of the $3,100 mark per troy ounce on the back of trade jitters and safe-haven demand. Silver prices reversed Tuesday’s pullback and traded just above the $31.00 mark per ounce, flirting with their 200-day SMA.
22:16 Dow Jones Industrial Average rockets higher on tariff suspension
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) skyrocketed on Wednesday, climbing over 2,200 points and reclaiming the 40,000 major price handle after the Trump administration announced it would once again pivot away from most of its recent tariff threats.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Dow Jones soared 7% on Wednesday after the Trump administration delayed its lopsided “reciprocal” tariffs.A flat 10% across-the-board tariff is still in effect, and China tariffs are still going to 125%.Market sentiment has entirely reversed course, and rate cut bets are plummeting.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) skyrocketed on Wednesday, climbing over 2,200 points and reclaiming the 40,000 major price handle after the Trump administration announced it would once again pivot away from most of its recent tariff threats. According to social media posts by US President Donald Trump, lopsided “reciprocal” tariffs are being reduced to just 10% across the board for the next 90 daysUS tariffs on China are still in effect, however, and are set to rise to 125% after China slapped a counter-retaliatory tariff of 84% on all goods imported from the US in a move that almost exclusively targets US agriculture. The US’s last-minute tariff pivot comes just after the European Union (EU) also approved its own retaliatory tariff package that would have seen a 25% import duty imposed on US goods.Trump announces a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffsThe Dow Jones soared over 10% bottom-to-top on Wednesday, rising 3,740 at its peak before settling to a more reasonable 6.2% single-day rebound. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P) index rallied 375 points to climb 7.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1,400 points, netting 9.4% on Wednesday.Read more stock news: NASDAQ spikes 10% after Trump pauses tariffs for 90 daysRate cut bets are getting pummeled by the tariff delay news, and rate traders now expect far fewer rate cuts through the rest of 2025. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, interest rate swap traders now expect a total of 75 bps in interest rate cuts through the remainder of the year. A first Fed rate cut is still expected at the Fed’s June rate call meeting, but a first rate cut in July remains a firmer bet.Dow Jones price forecastIntraday price action has been decimated by more late-stage tariff policy pivots from the Trump administration, and the Dow Jones has gone from 37,000 to 40,000 within a single trading session. Significant technical resistance remains at the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 41,900, however bidders will first need to crack through a soft resistance zone from March’s swing low into 41,000.Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
22:00 Argentina Industrial Output n.s.a (YoY): 5.6% (February) vs previous 7.1%
Argentina Industrial Output n.s.a (YoY): 5.6% (February) vs previous 7.1%
21:29 US Dollar recovers modestly after Fed minutes hint at tough road ahead
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades around the 103 area during Wednesday’s session, stabilizing slightly after recent selling pressure, which took it below 102.00.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The DXY hovers near the 103 zone during Wednesday’s session after briefly dipping on dovish Fed commentary.The release of the Fed minutes and Trump’s surprise tariff pause lifted short-term sentiment but underscored long-term inflation concerns.Price action remains below key moving averages; resistance builds near 103.20 while immediate support lies around 101.80.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades around the 103 area during Wednesday’s session, stabilizing slightly after recent selling pressure, which took it below 102.00. The minor bounce follows the release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) March meeting minutes, where policymakers flagged “difficult tradeoffs” ahead, citing risks of higher inflation paired with slower growth. President Donald Trump’s abrupt announcement of a 90-day suspension on most tariffs added fuel to the market rally, sending the Dow Jones sharply higher. However, the DXY’s bearish technical profile suggests the recovery may face headwinds, with multiple indicators still flashing warning signs.Daily digest market movers: US Dollar clings to recovery after Fed signals cautionThe FOMC minutes revealed a broad consensus to hold rates steady due to persistent inflation risks and mounting uncertainty over trade and growth dynamics.Participants noted inflation could be stickier than anticipated, with downside risks emerging for the labor market and broader economic activity.Fed officials warned that navigating between inflation control and supporting employment may prove increasingly complex if tariffs continue to distort the outlook.President Trump announced an immediate suspension of reciprocal and 10% tariffs for 90 days—excluding China—boosting risk appetite across equities.Despite optimism, policymakers flagged weakening GDP projections for 2025 and 2026, with the Fed’s baseline outlook still pointing to eventual rate cuts.
Technical analysisThe US Dollar Index remains under pressure even as it attempts to build a floor near the 102 zone. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a sell signal, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 40, reflecting a neutral tone. Supporting the bearish case, key moving averages such as the 20-day (103.63), 100-day (106.53), and 200-day (104.81) Simple Moving Averages continue to trend lower. The 10-day Exponential Moving Average and 10-day SMA, both around 103.20–103.38, also reinforce downward pressure. Resistance is found at 102.62, 103.21, and 103.38, while initial support is seen around 101.83. Should this floor break, a deeper retracement toward the psychological 100.00 level could unfold.
US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades around the 103 area during Wednesday’s session, stabilizing slightly after recent selling pressure, which took it below 102.00. The minor bounce follows the release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) March meeting minutes, where policymakers flagged “difficult tradeoffs” ahead, citing risks of higher inflation paired with slower growth. President Donald Trump’s abrupt announcement of a 90-day suspension on most tariffs added fuel to the market rally, sending the Dow Jones sharply higher. However, the DXY’s bearish technical profile suggests the recovery may face headwinds, with multiple indicators still flashing warning signs.Daily digest market movers: US Dollar clings to recovery after Fed signals cautionThe FOMC minutes revealed a broad consensus to hold rates steady due to persistent inflation risks and mounting uncertainty over trade and growth dynamics.Participants noted inflation could be stickier than anticipated, with downside risks emerging for the labor market and broader economic activity.Fed officials warned that navigating between inflation control and supporting employment may prove increasingly complex if tariffs continue to distort the outlook.President Trump announced an immediate suspension of reciprocal and 10% tariffs for 90 days—excluding China—boosting risk appetite across equities.Despite optimism, policymakers flagged weakening GDP projections for 2025 and 2026, with the Fed’s baseline outlook still pointing to eventual rate cuts.
Technical analysisThe US Dollar Index remains under pressure even as it attempts to build a floor near the 102 zone. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a sell signal, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 40, reflecting a neutral tone. Supporting the bearish case, key moving averages such as the 20-day (103.63), 100-day (106.53), and 200-day (104.81) Simple Moving Averages continue to trend lower. The 10-day Exponential Moving Average and 10-day SMA, both around 103.20–103.38, also reinforce downward pressure. Resistance is found at 102.62, 103.21, and 103.38, while initial support is seen around 101.83. Should this floor break, a deeper retracement toward the psychological 100.00 level could unfold.
US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
21:29 US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Reciprocal tariffs temporarily reduced to 10%
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added further details to Trump's sudden pullback from widespread reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday, noting that the US will be dropping tariffs across the board to 10% after US President Donald Trump delayed his own "reciprocal" tariff package by 90 days as the Trum
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added further details to Trump's sudden pullback from widespread reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday, noting that the US will be dropping tariffs across the board to 10% after US President Donald Trump delayed his own "reciprocal" tariff package by 90 days as the Trump administration scrambles to get bond markets back under control. Tariffs against countries that have already "retaliated" against the US's own self-styled retaliatory tariffs will be exempt from the delay, which means tariffs on Chinese goods will remain in the triple digits.Key highlightsRaising duties on China to 125%, countries who did not retaliate will be rewarded.
Mexico and Canada included in 10% tariff.
Raising tariffs on China due to escalation.
China the biggest source of US trade problems.
I am not calling it a trade war, but China has escalated.
We will work on a solution with our trading partners.
The pause is not because of the market reaction.
It was the President's decision.
The market didn't understand Trump's maximum level tariffs.
We will see what China does.
We had quite a good 10-year treasury auction today.
This was Trump’s intention all along.
Mexico and Canada included in 10% tariff.
Raising tariffs on China due to escalation.
China the biggest source of US trade problems.
I am not calling it a trade war, but China has escalated.
We will work on a solution with our trading partners.
The pause is not because of the market reaction.
It was the President's decision.
The market didn't understand Trump's maximum level tariffs.
We will see what China does.
We had quite a good 10-year treasury auction today.
This was Trump’s intention all along.
20:37 Dow Jones Industrial Average rockets 6% higher on tariff suspension
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) skyrocketed on Wednesday, surging over 6% on the day and returning to the 40,000 handle after the Trump administration announced yet another pivot on its own tariff policies.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) skyrocketed on Wednesday, surging over 6% on the day and returning to the 40,000 handle after the Trump administration announced yet another pivot on its own tariff policies.According to US President Donald Trump, all "non-retaliating" countries will see an immediate 90-day suspension on "reciprocal" and 10% tariffs, although China does not get to enjoy any such tariff relief. Tariffs on Chinese goods have been raised even further to 125% in retaliation for China's own retaliatory 84% tariff on all goods from the US.More to come... Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
20:34 Breaking: Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs
U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he had authorized a 90-day pause on reciprocal and 10% tariffs, noting that the measure was effective immediately.
U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he had authorized a 90-day pause on reciprocal and 10% tariffs, noting that the measure was effective immediately.Key QuotesRaising china tariff to 125%. Effective immediately. 90-day pause applies to reciprocal and 10% tariffs.
20:02 United States 10-Year Note Auction rose from previous 4.31% to 4.435%
United States 10-Year Note Auction rose from previous 4.31% to 4.435%
19:20 Fed's Barkin: Tariff price hikes could start in June
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin pummeled market hopes for rate cuts on Wednesday, noting that the Fed is broadly anticipating negative effects from both ends of the US's self-styled trade war.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin pummeled market hopes for rate cuts on Wednesday, noting that the Fed is broadly anticipating negative effects from both ends of the US's self-styled trade war.Key highlightsTariff price hikes could begin by June.
Businesses struggling with confidence.
Price surges requires the Fed to be cautious.
Tariffs are to hit both inflation and employment.
Businesses struggling with confidence.
Price surges requires the Fed to be cautious.
Tariffs are to hit both inflation and employment.
19:14 Fed's Musalem: It is risky to assume the Fed can look through higher prices from tariffs
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem noted on Wednesday that tariffs will make it increasingly difficult for the Fed to make short-term changes to policy rates.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem noted on Wednesday that tariffs will make it increasingly difficult for the Fed to make short-term changes to policy rates.Key highlightsI expect US economic growth this year materially below estimated 2% trend.
Inflation expectations remain anchored, it is necessary for the Fed to keep them that way.
Financial conditions have tightened, but I do not see market dysfunction in recent volatility.
Tension between the Fed's dual mandate goals as risks of slower growth and higher inflation begin to materialize.
Markets are responding to reassessments of global growth.
Business contacts say they are not turning to layoffs, but are taking a wait-and-see approach to hiring and capital spending plans.
We will take a balanced approach to monetary policy as long as inflation expectations remain anchored.
It is risky to assume the Fed can look through higher prices from tariffs, there is a chance some effects could persist.
Baseline outlook is not for recession, but slipping confidence, higher prices and a blow to household wealth point to slowing growth.
Inflation expectations remain anchored, it is necessary for the Fed to keep them that way.
Financial conditions have tightened, but I do not see market dysfunction in recent volatility.
Tension between the Fed's dual mandate goals as risks of slower growth and higher inflation begin to materialize.
Markets are responding to reassessments of global growth.
Business contacts say they are not turning to layoffs, but are taking a wait-and-see approach to hiring and capital spending plans.
We will take a balanced approach to monetary policy as long as inflation expectations remain anchored.
It is risky to assume the Fed can look through higher prices from tariffs, there is a chance some effects could persist.
Baseline outlook is not for recession, but slipping confidence, higher prices and a blow to household wealth point to slowing growth.
18:40 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Euro climbs toward 1.1100 as bullish bias strengthens
The EUR/USD pair extended its gains on Wednesday, moving higher after the European session and climbing toward the 1.1100 area. The pair sits above the midpoint of its daily range, buoyed by renewed bullish momentum, despite some neutral short-term indicators.
EUR/USD trades near the 1.1000 zone after rising sharply during Wednesday’s session.Technical indicators lean bullish overall, although short-term momentum remains balanced.Support seen near the 1.0920–1.1000 range, with key moving averages reinforcing the uptrend.
The EUR/USD pair extended its gains on Wednesday, moving higher after the European session and climbing toward the 1.1100 area. The pair sits above the midpoint of its daily range, buoyed by renewed bullish momentum, despite some neutral short-term indicators. Today’s rise further supports the broader bullish outlook, which has been reinforced by strong moving average signals and a MACD buy trigger.
Daily chart
Momentum indicators are showing mixed but improving dynamics. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 65.40, indicating the pair is approaching overbought territory but not yet signaling exhaustion. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is producing a buy signal, supporting continued upward momentum. However, both the Williams Percent Range (−25.08) and Bull Bear Power (0.02349) remain neutral, hinting that buyers are in control but not yet dominant.The bullish outlook is clearly reflected in the trend-based indicators. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.08745, 100-day SMA at 1.05425, and 200-day SMA at 1.07381 all point upward, aligning with the current direction. The 10-day EMA and 10-day SMA, at 1.09225 and 1.08995 respectively, also support a continuation of the bullish momentum.On the downside, support is located at 1.10025, followed by a key zone around 1.09225–1.09223. No major resistance levels have been confirmed yet above the recent highs, leaving room for potential continuation should buying pressure persist.
The EUR/USD pair extended its gains on Wednesday, moving higher after the European session and climbing toward the 1.1100 area. The pair sits above the midpoint of its daily range, buoyed by renewed bullish momentum, despite some neutral short-term indicators. Today’s rise further supports the broader bullish outlook, which has been reinforced by strong moving average signals and a MACD buy trigger.
Daily chart
Momentum indicators are showing mixed but improving dynamics. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 65.40, indicating the pair is approaching overbought territory but not yet signaling exhaustion. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is producing a buy signal, supporting continued upward momentum. However, both the Williams Percent Range (−25.08) and Bull Bear Power (0.02349) remain neutral, hinting that buyers are in control but not yet dominant.The bullish outlook is clearly reflected in the trend-based indicators. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.08745, 100-day SMA at 1.05425, and 200-day SMA at 1.07381 all point upward, aligning with the current direction. The 10-day EMA and 10-day SMA, at 1.09225 and 1.08995 respectively, also support a continuation of the bullish momentum.On the downside, support is located at 1.10025, followed by a key zone around 1.09225–1.09223. No major resistance levels have been confirmed yet above the recent highs, leaving room for potential continuation should buying pressure persist.
18:26 Mexican Peso plunges, hits 9-week low amid escalation of US-China trade war
The Mexican Peso (MXN) extended its losses against the US Dollar (USD) as US-China tensions escalated after the US imposed further tariffs on Chinese imports, while the latter retaliated reciprocally. Volatility remains high and usually undermines risk appetite, sending the Peso lower.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Mexican Peso is under pressure as China retaliates with 50% tariffs, lifting total duties to 84% on US goods.US 10-year yield spikes to 4.513%; traders speculate Fed may act on bond market dislocation.Mexico’s March inflation aligns with Banxico’s target, keeping the door open for a 50 bps rate cut in May.The Mexican Peso (MXN) extended its losses against the US Dollar (USD) as US-China tensions escalated after the US imposed further tariffs on Chinese imports, while the latter retaliated reciprocally. Volatility remains high and usually undermines risk appetite, sending the Peso lower. USD/MXN trades at 20.96 after hitting a 9-week high of 21.07, registering gains of 0.64%.The financial markets' narrative remains around the “trade war.” As tariffs of 104% were enacted at midnight EST on China’s products, the latter response was of the same size, adding 50% duties on US goods exports to China, for a total of 84%.The headline pressured US Treasuries, with the US 10-year T-note yield soaring to a daily high of 4.513%. Fears of a dislocation in the US financial markets have investors speculating about a “Fed put” if the yield of the US 10-year note rises past 4.50%, which could trigger an intervention by the US central bank.Aside from this, back to economic data, Mexico’s headline inflation in March rose in line with expectations, though it stood within Banco de Mexico’s (Banxico) 3% plus or minus 1% goal. Core inflation was also aligned with estimates, revealed the Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática (INEGI).Despite the slight price jump, market participants are eying a Banxico rate cut at the May meeting.The US economic docket features some Fed speakers, with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Minneapolis Fed Neel Kashkari. Traders also await the latest Fed meeting minutes and US inflation data, which will be announced on Thursday.Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso plunges as CPI justifies Banxico’s further easingINEGI revealed that Mexico’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.80% YoY in March, which aligned with estimates but was up from 3.77% in the previous month. Excluding volatile items, the so-called Core CPI rose by 3.64%, as projected.Citi Mexico Expectations Survey revealed that Banxico will likely cut rates to 8% towards year-end. Regarding the USD/MXN pair exchange rate, it is expected to hit 20.90, and inflation will remain within Banxico’s 2% to 4% range at 3.7%.Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by 0.3% in 2025, less than the previous survey of 0.6%Banxico’s Governor, Victoria Rodríguez Ceja, stated that the central bank will remain attentive to US trade policies and their impact on the country, with a primary focus on inflation.USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso treads water as USD/MXN looms near 21.00USD/MXN is expected to remain within the year's heights as volatility exerts downward pressure on the Emerging Market (EM) currency. Price action suggests the uptrend is intact, and if buyers push spot prices past the current daily peak of 21.07, a challenge of the year-to-date (YTD) high of 21.28 is on the cards. On further strength, 21.50 is up next, with a chance of seeing the USD/MXN pair close to 22.00.On the downside, if USD/MXN drops below 20.50, the next support would be the confluence of the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) near 20.34/36. If surpassed, the next floor level is the psychological 20.00 figure. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
17:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at 2.553M, above forecasts (2.2M) in April 4
United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at 2.553M, above forecasts (2.2M) in April 4
17:15 AUD/USD soars to near 0.6050 amid significant weakness in US Dollar
The AUD/USD rallies to near 0.6050 during North American trading hours on Wednesday. The Aussie pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) slides sharply amid fears that deteriorating trade relations between the United States (US) and China could push the economy into a recession.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD surges almost 1.4% to near 0.6050 as the US Dollar faces an intense sell-off.US-China trade war could send lead to shockwaves to the Australian economy.Fed Kashkari expects Trump's tariffs to increase inflation and weigh on GDP growth.The AUD/USD rallies to near 0.6050 during North American trading hours on Wednesday. The Aussie pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) slides sharply amid fears that deteriorating trade relations between the United States (US) and China could push the economy into a recession.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, tumbles to near 102.00. The S&P 500 opens on a slightly positive note, exhibiting an increase in the risk-appetite of investors.The tariff war between the US and China has escalated as the latter has increased counter-tariffs to 84%, matching reciprocal levies imposed on Beijing by President Donald Trump on Tuesday. Such a scenario will force US importers to look for other nations to buy substitutes for Chinese goods. Market participants expect the event to be inflationary as the purchase of similar goods from other nations won’t be cost-effective, given the competitive advantage of China in manufacturing due to lower labor costs.Market experts also believe that the inflationary impact of the US-China trade war could also lead to a recession in the US. During North American hours, Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President Neel Kashkari said, “Near-term inflation will climb, purchasing power will go down, investment will likely be lower, and GDP will be smaller due to tariffs.”Going forward, investors will focus on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the March meeting, which will be published at 18:00 GMT.Though investors have underpinned the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the US Dollar, its outlook remains weak as potential economic shocks due to the US-China trade war. The Australian economy is expected to be one of the major victims of the trade war, given its significant reliance on exports to China. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
17:00 United States Wholesale Inventories meets expectations (0.3%) in February
United States Wholesale Inventories meets expectations (0.3%) in February
16:24 GBP recovers recent losses – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is up a modest 0.5% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and retracing a portion of its recent losses, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes on Wednesday.
Pound Sterling (GBP) is up a modest 0.5% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and retracing a portion of its recent losses, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes on Wednesday. GBP remains stuck in a range"There have been no major domestic data releases though markets have focused on comments from the Bank of England and specifically the use of leverage among investment firms in amplifying risks during periods of market dislocation. Domestic trade and industrial production data are set for release on Friday.""GBP/USD’s sharp reversal of last week’s delivered a break of its one-month range and a push to fresh local lows in the mid/lower-1.28s. The RSI has drifted below 50, in bearish territory, and there doesn’t appear to be any clear support ahead of the lower 1.27s."
16:23 EUR cheers German political developments – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) is up an impressive 0.8% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and outperforming most of the G10 currencies with the exception of AUD and CHF, recovering its recent losses and pushing back toward last week’s highs, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
The Euro (EUR) is up an impressive 0.8% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and outperforming most of the G10 currencies with the exception of AUD and CHF, recovering its recent losses and pushing back toward last week’s highs, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Near-term risk in EUR is being tilted to the downside"Markets appear to be cheering news of an agreement to form a coalition government in Germany, however the price action in bonds has been somewhat muted by the broader tone with German bond yields down over 10pts at the short end. We still see near-term risk in EUR as being tilted to the downside, given the yawning gap between yield spreads (lower) and EUR (higher).""EUR’s latest gains appear to have faltered around the upper end of the recent range roughly bound between support just below 1.09 and resistance above 1.11. The RSI is leaning bullish, but only modestly so. We’d anticipate a break of 1.09 to find additional support in the 1.0750-1.0800 area."
16:15 Fed Minutes to offer clues on rate cut outlook amid tariff uncertainty
The eagerly awaited minutes from the United States (US) Federal Reserve’s (Fed) March 18-19 monetary policy meeting are set for release on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. During the gathering, policymakers agreed to keep the Fed Funds Target Range (FFTR) unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%.
.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Minutes of the Fed’s March 18-19 gathering are due on Wednesday.The Federal Reserve delivered a cautious hold at its March event.Investors contemplate a potential rate cut at the May 7 meeting. The eagerly awaited minutes from the United States (US) Federal Reserve’s (Fed) March 18-19 monetary policy meeting are set for release on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. During the gathering, policymakers agreed to keep the Fed Funds Target Range (FFTR) unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%.The latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) update highlighted a palpable sense of uncertainty within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).Indeed, their revised outlook for 2025 and 2026 was notably pared back, signaling caution among policymakers. Yet, despite the more conservative expectations, the Fed’s forecast still anticipated two cuts to the federal funds rate in 2025, underscoring a continued commitment to monetary easing.The Fed delivered a hawkish hold, and Powell confirmed itIn a decisive move, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to hold the policy rate steady this March. Yet, two issues dominated the discussions: a cloud of uncertainty and the looming impact of US tariffs.In his routine press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell characterized the uncertainty as "unusually elevated." He explained that central bank officials were wrestling with major challenges in updating economic projections amid a flurry of new policy moves from the Trump administration. Powell warned that the Fed could face delays in pushing forward its inflation targets, as inflation had begun to climb—an effect he attributed, at least in part, to the tariffs.Speaking to business journalists in Virginia on April 4, Powell remarked that President Donald Trump's new tariffs proved to be “larger than expected.” He painted a picture of an economic landscape where rising tariffs could trigger higher inflation and slower growth, potentially pushing the central bank into a series of tough decisions.Adding to the conversation, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler observed that the recent surge in goods and market-services inflation might be a prelude to the full impact of the tariffs. She stressed that despite the shifting economic tides, the Fed’s paramount priority must remain keeping inflation in check.When will FOMC Minutes be released and how could it affect the US Dollar?The FOMC is set to release the Minutes from its March 18-19 policy meeting at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday, and market watchers are bracing for key insights.Participants will be particularly alert for any hints regarding a slowdown in the pace of quantitative tightening (QT) and for discussions that led rate setters to project “stagflationary” scenarios on their updated “dots plot”.Chair Powell reassured that the economy remains well positioned, although growing uncertainty and a potential slowdown in economic activity could put pressure on the US Dollar (USD). The debate over the probable impacts of US tariffs is also expected to feature prominently.At a recent briefing, Senior Analyst Pablo Piovano of FXStreet offered an outlook on the US Dollar Index (DXY).He argued, “In case sellers regain the upper hand, the index should meet its immediate contention at its 2025 bottom of 101.26 (April 3) and further down at the 2024 trough of 100.15 (September 27), just shy of the crucial 100.00 level.”“Occasional bouts of strength, on the other hand, should initially find resistance at the weekly peak of 104.68 (March 26), an area just below the critical 200-day Simple Moving Average at 104.83. While below that level, extra losses in DXY should remain well on the cards,” he added. Piovano also noted that momentum indicators hint at further near-term retracements—with the daily Relative Strength Index hovering around the 42 region and the Average Directional Index near 37, suggesting that the current trend might be gathering additional force. Economic Indicator FOMC Minutes FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.
Read more. Next release: Wed Apr 09, 2025 18:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: - Previous: - Source: Federal Reserve Why it matters to traders? Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Read more. Next release: Wed Apr 09, 2025 18:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: - Previous: - Source: Federal Reserve Why it matters to traders? Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
16:12 Fed’s Kashkari: No monetary policy response should be off the table
Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, warned on Wednesday that last week’s wide-ranging tariffs could unsettle people’s expectations about inflation.
Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, warned on Wednesday that last week’s wide-ranging tariffs could unsettle people’s expectations about inflation.Key QuotesNo monetary policy response, up or down, should be off the table.Hurdle to changing policy rate has increased due to tariffs. Bar is higher for cutting rates even if economy, labour market weakens. Falling neutral rate due to tariffs reduces immediate need for rate hike. Risk of unanchoring inflation expectations seems to have increased notably. "Too risky" to look through inflation effects of tariffs. First priority must be keeping long-run inflation expectations anchored. Announced tariffs much higher, broader than expected, resulting in larger economic effect and shock to confidence. Near-term inflation will climb, purchasing power will go down, investment will likely be lower, and GDP will be smaller due to tariffs. Once confident on inflation expectations, could then focus on trade-offs between goals.
16:08 CAD holds range despite headwinds from risk, commodities – Scotiabank
Canada’s 25% counter tariffs on non-USMCA compliant vehicles came into force just after midnight, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Canada’s 25% counter tariffs on non-USMCA compliant vehicles came into force just after midnight, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD continues to meet resistance above the mid-1.42 zone "The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is taking the heightened market volatility and increased uncertainty in its stride, at least for now and remains essentially range-bound against a weaker USD." "Our fair value model suggests the CAD is trading right about where it should be against an equilibrium estimate of 1.4189—little changed from yesterday. That is a 'win' for the CAD in an environment of weak equities, soft commodities and rising US yields but it does rather highlight what an unusual environment we are in right now.""Spot is holding within this week’s trading range this morning. USD gains continue to meet resistance above the mid-1.42 zone but yesterday’s rebound from the intraday low at 1.4145/50 suggests a firm-ish low in place for now ahead of 1.4025/30."
16:05 USD: US markets wilt under tariff pressure – Scotiabank
Yesterday’s hopes for some moderation in US tariff policy met the reality of 104% tariffs on China and President Trump’s other levies being imposed as of midnight last night, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Yesterday’s hopes for some moderation in US tariff policy met the reality of 104% tariffs on China and President Trump’s other levies being imposed as of midnight last night, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD weaker along with Treasuries and US equities"This morning, markets reflect heightened anxiety across the board and—unusually—a weaker USD, weaker US Treasuries along with weaker US equity futures amid another round of hefty losses in European stocks. Crude oil prices continue to slide (WTI down 4.5%) but gold prices appear to be recovering after dipping below $3000/oz this week. Tariffs and there anticipated consequences are driving investors out of US assets, either as a consequence of liquidating winning positions to offset losses elsewhere or as a result of concerns that the primacy of US asset markets is eroding amid poor policy decisions." "Market moves may raise concerns that markets are facing some serious dislocations as investors redeploy capital away from US assets. The lack of haven demand for US Treasuries amid sliding US stocks suggests pressure on the USD is likely to extend in the short run at least. DXY losses have steadied around the 102 area intraday but the trend remains geared towards more losses and a push towards 99/100 in the near term. Major resistance sits at 103.50/75 now." "The Fed releases the minutes of the March FOMC meeting later. It’s old news essentially but expect a lot of references to 'uncertainty' to reflect the tone of the of Chair Powell’s post-meeting press conference and caution on the outlook, echoing last Friday’s remarks. A May rate cut is a 50/50 bet, according to swaps—but perhaps only because investors hope the 'Fed put' strike is nearing. It isn’t."
15:06 US Treasury Sec. Bessent: US has a strong Dollar policy
In an interview with Fox Business Network on Wednesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China's decision to raise tariffs on US imports to 84% is "unfortunate," per Reuters.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
In an interview with Fox Business Network on Wednesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China's decision to raise tariffs on US imports to 84% is "unfortunate," per Reuters.Key takeaways"China's escalation is a loser for them.""They can raise their tariffs but so what.""A very good step with the Chinese is to acknowledge fentanyl precursors.""China needs to punish people exporting fentanyl precursors to US.""Allies coming to talk to US should think about how to rebalance China.""China should not try to devalue their way out of this.""China should come to the table.""I think nothing systemic about deleveraging in bond market.""Expecting bond market to calm down.""Deregulation should let banks buy more treasuries.""The US has a strong Dollar policy." Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
15:00 Mexico 12-Month Inflation in line with forecasts (3.8%) in March
Mexico 12-Month Inflation in line with forecasts (3.8%) in March
15:00 Mexico Headline Inflation in line with forecasts (0.31%) in March
Mexico Headline Inflation in line with forecasts (0.31%) in March
15:00 Mexico Core Inflation meets forecasts (0.43%) in March
Mexico Core Inflation meets forecasts (0.43%) in March
15:00 Brazil Retail Sales (MoM) meets forecasts (0.5%) in February
Brazil Retail Sales (MoM) meets forecasts (0.5%) in February
14:43 EUR/USD edges higher amid flat momentum – OCBC
Euro (EUR) ticked higher vs US Dollar (USD) and was last seen at 1.1044 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Euro (EUR) ticked higher vs US Dollar (USD) and was last seen at 1.1044 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. EU plans retaliation over US tariffs"Daily momentum is flat while RSI shows signs of rising. Consolidation likely. Resistance here at 1.1050. Support at 1.0910 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 low to high), 1.0880 (21 DMA)." "Today, EU members is expected to vote on the retaliatory package, which targets a watered-down list of EUR21bn US goods (instead of the original EUR26bn). Bourbon and wine have been dropped out of the list. This set of European tariff proposal is in response to Trump's steel and aluminium tariffs rather than the broader tariffs." "EU is expected to produce a larger package of countermeasures by the end of April, as a response to the tariff on cars and broader tariffs. EU trade chief Sefcovic said the EU was ready to consider all retaliatory options. One is the EU's Anti-Coercion Instrument, which allows it to target US services or to limit US companies' access to EU public procurement tenders. But as of now, EU is prioritising negotiations to avert a full-fledged trade war."
14:34 USD/JPY: Short squeeze soon? – OCBC
USD/JPY dipped this morning. Safe-haven demand was the main catalyst while UST-JGB yield differentials also narrowed. Pair was last at 144.74 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
USD/JPY dipped this morning. Safe-haven demand was the main catalyst while UST-JGB yield differentials also narrowed. Pair was last at 144.74 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Risk of short squeeze in USD/JPY is not ruled out"Daily momentum is mild bearish while RSI fell. Risks skewed to the downside. Support at 144.10 levels. Resistance at 147, 148.75 (21 DMA) and 150.30 (50 DMA). But as UST yields rise, we are also cautious that USD/JPY may revert to trading higher. Risk of short squeeze in USD/JPY is not ruled out." "But beyond this, we still look for USD/JPY to trend lower, premised on safe-haven flow and Fed- BoJ policy divergence (Fed rate cut cycle while the BoJ has room to further pursue policy normalisation)." "Wage growth, broadening services inflation and upbeat economic activities in Japan should continue to support BoJ policy normalisation although tariff uncertainty may complicate BoJ outlook to some extent. Fed-BoJ policy divergence should bring about further narrowing of UST-JGB yield differentials, in turn underpinning the broader direction of travel for USDJPY to the downside."
14:32 USD/CAD tumbles below 1.4200 as US Dollar dives amid US recession fears
The USD/CAD pair falls sharply to near 1.4180 during European trading hours on Wednesday. The Loonie pair faces an intense sell-off as the US Dollar (USD) takes bullet for United States (US) President Donald Trump raising import duty on China to 104%.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD has been hit hard by the escalating tariff war between the US and China.China imposes additional 34% on import duty on products from the US.Canada’s 25% counter-tariffs on autos from the US have come into effect on April 9.The USD/CAD pair falls sharply to near 1.4180 during European trading hours on Wednesday. The Loonie pair faces an intense sell-off as the US Dollar (USD) takes bullet for United States (US) President Donald Trump raising import duty on China to 104%. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, tumbles to near 102.00.On Tuesday, US President Trump increased reciprocal tariffs on China to 84%, following Beijing’s retaliation. Last week, China imposed a 34% levy on imports from the US as a retaliation against Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Trump has also blamed China for manipulating their currency to offset the impact of higher duties.During European trading hours, China has imposed additional 84% tariffs on the US, which will come into effect on April 10.Financial market participants brace for a significant increase in inflation and a slowdown in the US economic growth as the brewing trade war between the US and China. This could lead to a sharp decline in US business activity, given the meaningful dependence of US importers on cost-effective products from China.Fears of a US economic slowdown have led traders to raise bets supporting the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates in the May meeting. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability for the central bank to cut interest rates in May has increased to 52.5% from 10.6% recorded a week ago.Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is expected to remain volatile as 25% counter-tariffs announced by the Canadian government last week have become effective from April 9. A spokesperson from Canada’s ministry said on Tuesday that these countermeasures will remain in place “until the US eliminates its tariffs against the Canadian auto sector". Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
14:17 US Dollar dives as US tariffs trigger market reaction
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, extends the previous day’s correction and hovers around 102.30 at the time of writing on Wednesday after testing the 102.00 level in the early Asian session.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Greenback edges lower against most major currencies as US tariffs impact markets. Asian and European Equities edge lower amid fears of global economic slowdown due to tariffs. The US Dollar Index is on the backfoot, though it starts to recover during the European session. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, extends the previous day’s correction and hovers around 102.30 at the time of writing on Wednesday after testing the 102.00 level in the early Asian session. The tariffs that United States (US) President Donald Trump introduced on Liberation Day are going to take effect this Wednesday. Meanwhile, China and Canada have already vowed to retaliate against these tariffs with countermeasures, increasing fears of a global economic slowdown. On the economic calendar front, some light data is set to be published on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes for the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting in March. However, not much is expected from the Minutes, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that the central bank will be in a “wait-and-see” mode. Meanwhile, markets are piling in for more interest rate cut bets by the Fed in 2025. Daily digest market movers: Fed Minutes to leave markets cluelessChina has issued comments that it is set to impose a near 84% tariffs on all US goods starting 10th of April, Bloomberg reports. At 11:00 GMT, the Mortgage Bankers Association released its weekly mortgage application numbers. The actual number was a firm jump of 20% in comparison to the previous number of -1.6%.At 14:00 GMT, the February Wholesale Inventory data is due. Expectations are for a steady 0.3% growth.AT 16:30 GMT, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will speak at the economic club in Washington. At 18:00 GMT, the FOMC Minutes from their last meeting in March will be released. Equities are sinking lower again after China retaliated on US tariffs. The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in May’s meeting surging to 53.5%, compared with only 10.6% a week ago. For June, the chances of lower borrowing costs are 100%, with 55.2% anticipating a 50 basis point (bp) rate cut. The US 10-year yields trade around 4.35%, and keep rallying higher while the Fedwatch tool is seeing more rate cut bets being priced in. US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: More to comeThe US Dollar Index (DXY) dipped lower earlier this Wednesday and looks to be bouncing off a pivotal support at 101.90 for now. The question remains, though, that with these tariffs and once US economic data start to turn, the DXY might see more selling pressure come in. That could mean a further weakening of the Greenback in the coming weeks or months, even as the impact of these tariffs will only start to be priced in now.Looking up, the first level to watch out for is 103.18, which supported the DXY in March and has now become a strong resistance. Above there, the 104.00 round level and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 104.85 come into play. On the downside, 101.90 is the first line of defense, and it should be able to trigger a bounce as it has been able to hold the recent bearish momentum last week and did its duty again earlier this Wednesday. Maybe not on Wednesday, but in the coming days, a break below 101.90 could see a leg lower towards 100.00. US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
14:16 Brent falls below key 2024 support – Societe Generale
Brent crude has extended its decline after breaching key support levels from earlier in 2024. While momentum indicators suggest the move is stretched, signs of a significant rebound remain elusive, Societe Generale's FX analysts report.
Brent crude has extended its decline after breaching key support levels from earlier in 2024. While momentum indicators suggest the move is stretched, signs of a significant rebound remain elusive, Societe Generale's FX analysts report. Rebound hurdles lie near $68 zone"Brent has experienced an extended down move after break below crucial levels of $68.10/68.70 representing troughs of 2024 and March. Daily MACD is registering multi-month lows denoting a stretched decline, however signals of a meaningful bounce are not yet visible." "Next projections are located at $57.80 and $54. If a short-term rebound develops, graphical levels of $68.10/68.70 could be an important hurdle."
14:13 Euro shows unexpected safe haven strength – Rabobank
Following President Trump's tariff announcement, the euro has shown surprising resilience, acting more like a safe haven currency alongside the Swiss franc and Japanese yen.
Following President Trump's tariff announcement, the euro has shown surprising resilience, acting more like a safe haven currency alongside the Swiss franc and Japanese yen. Amid rising global uncertainty and shifts in investor sentiment, current account dynamics and political developments in Europe have helped support the euro's performance, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley reports. Pound struggles as euro gains ground"Since US President Trump detailed his tariff policy on April 2, the EUR has been doing a very good impression of a safe haven currency. In the period since the Rose Garden address it has been the third best performing G10 currency after the CHF and the JPY, both of which are long established safe havens. There is one key fundamental that all three of these currencies share, that of being associated with current account surpluses in each of their respective countries." "The consensus view is that the EUR lacks the fundamentals that would make it a real safe haven. The single currency is only 25 years old, and its brief history has a strong association with a major debt crisis. The latter can be taken back to the question that has dogged the EUR since before its inception - whether monetary union can be permanent situation without closer fiscal and debt ties between member countries. ""There have been short pockets of time in the past twenty years or so when the pound has adopted some safe haven behaviours. These, however, are likely better described as periods when investors have been looking to diversify their European exposures. While it would not be surprising for the EUR to give back some of the gains made in the past few days, we have adjusted our EUR/GBP forecasts higher and now see the currency pair at 0.85 on a 6 month vs. compared with a previous forecast of 0.83."
14:08 Breaking: China announces additional 84% tariffs on US goods from April 10
China's Finance Ministry announced on Wednesday that they will impose additional 84% tariffs on US imports from April 10.
China's Finance Ministry announced on Wednesday that they will impose additional 84% tariffs on US imports from April 10.Developing story, please refresh the page for updates.
14:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications increased to 20% in April 4 from previous -1.6%
United States MBA Mortgage Applications increased to 20% in April 4 from previous -1.6%
13:49 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rallies above $30 as US Dollar tumbles on US-China tariff war
Silver price (XAG/USD) surges almost 2% to near $30.40 during European trading hours on Wednesday. The white metal strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) tumbles amid fears that the escalating trade war between Washington and Beijing could lead the United States (US) economy into a recession.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver price gains sharply to near $30.40 as worsening trade relations between the US and China have weighed on the US Dollar.Lack of near substitutes of Chinese products will be inflationary for the US.Fed dovish bets have swelled amid fears of a US recession.Silver price (XAG/USD) surges almost 2% to near $30.40 during European trading hours on Wednesday. The white metal strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) tumbles amid fears that the escalating trade war between Washington and Beijing could lead the United States (US) economy into a recession.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, plummets to near 102.00.Financial market participants are concerned that the imposition of 104% duty on imports from China by President Donald Trump for pouring drugs into the US and its retaliation against reciprocal tariffs would restrict the purchase of Chinese goods by US firms. Such a scenario will be inflationary and slow down the US economic growth as domestic firms lack near substitutes of Chinese imports.Meanwhile, traders have raised Federal Reserve (Fed) dovish bets in the face of potential US economic shocks. The probability for the Fed to cut interest rates in the May meeting has increased significantly to 52.5% from 10.6% seen a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Lower interest rates by the Fed bodes well for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.In Wednesday’s session, investors will focus on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the March policy meeting, which will be published at 18:00 GMT.Silver technical analysisSilver price recovers to test the breakdown region of the Ascending Triangle chart formation near its upward-sloping border around the August 8 low of $26.45. The horizontal resistance of the above-mentioned chart pattern is plotted from the October 22 high of $34.87.Technically, the breakdown of the Ascending Triangle pattern indicates results in a volatility expansion, which leads to higher volume and formation of wide ticks.The overall trend of the Silver price is bearish as it trades below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $30.70.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) bounces after turning oversold below 30.00. However, the overall momentum is on the bearish side.Looking down, the August 8 low of $26.45 will act as key support for the Silver price. While, the April 4 high of $32.00 will be the major barrier.Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
13:42 MXN: Inflation figures are unlikely to provide new information – Commerzbank
This afternoon the Mexican statistics office will release the March inflation figures. However, they are unlikely to tell us much new, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.
This afternoon the Mexican statistics office will release the March inflation figures. However, they are unlikely to tell us much new, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.Banxico is likely to continue cutting in the coming months"Firstly, inflation figures are released every two weeks in Mexico, which means that we already know half of March's price increases. Second, economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the figures to be little changed - still well below 4% year-on-year. Although this means that inflation remains above the 3% target, the deviation is not exceptionally high for an emerging market." "In view of these figures, Banxico is likely to continue cutting the still rather high real interest rate in the coming months. However, as the market already anticipates this, the simmering trade war is likely to remain more relevant to the peso than domestic inflation figures for the time being."
13:39 USD/CNH: Any advance is likely part of a higher range of 7.3600/7.4420 – UOB Group
Further US Dollar (USD) strength is not ruled out vs Chinese Yuan (CNH), but any advance is likely part of a higher range of 7.3600/7.4420.
Further US Dollar (USD) strength is not ruled out vs Chinese Yuan (CNH), but any advance is likely part of a higher range of 7.3600/7.4420. In the longer run, surge in momentum indicates USD is likely to continue to rise; the level to monitor is 7.4500, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.USD is likely to continue to rise24-HOUR VIEW: "While we expected USD to 'rise further' yesterday, we indicated that 'given the overbought conditions, any advance is unlikely to reach 7.3800.' We did not expect the surge that sent USD soaring above 7.4000 (high of 7.4288). USD closed at 7.4265, higher by 1.08%. While further USD strength is not ruled out, deeply overbought conditions suggest any advance is likely part of a higher 7.3600/7.4420 range. In other words, USD is unlikely to break clearly above 7.4420 or below 7.3600."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We indicated yesterday (08 Apr, spot at 7.3480) that while USD 'could continue to rise, it is unclear whether it can break above 7.3800.' However, USD easily broke above 7.3800 and soared above 7.4000 for the first time. The surge in momentum indicates USD is likely to continue to rise. The level to monitor is 7.4500. The upside risk will remain intact provided that the ‘strong support’ at 7.3100 (level was at 7.2750 yesterday) is not breached."
13:36 EUR/USD strengthens on fresh escalation in US-China trade war
EUR/USD advances to near 1.1050 in Wednesday’s European session. The major currency pair remains firm as the US Dollar (USD) stays under pressure on the brewing trade war between the United States (US) and China.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD jumps above 1.1050 as the US Dollar faces pressures on the brewing trade war between the US and China.China warns of countermeasures against Trump’s hefty reciprocal tariffs.ECB Šimkus supports an interest rate cut in April.EUR/USD advances to near 1.1050 in Wednesday’s European session. The major currency pair remains firm as the US Dollar (USD) stays under pressure on the brewing trade war between the United States (US) and China.Through the so-called White Paper, Beijing said that China will take countermeasures to “safeguard its rights and interests”. The nation believes in the essence of “US-China trade ties” but firmly opposes “unilateral and bullying restrictive measures”. China has cleared through the White Paper that it will “resolutely counteract and fight to the end”.These comments from Beijing have come in the face of an increase in reciprocal tariffs by US President Donald Trump on China. On Tuesday, Trump raised import duty to 104% on China following Beijing’s countermeasure of 34% levy on imports from the US.Market participants worry that the escalating trade war between the world’s biggest powerhouses could push the US economy into a recession. This has led to a sharp increase in traders’ bets supporting the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume the monetary policy easing cycle, which it paused in January. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability for the central bank to cut interest rates in May has increased to 52.5% from 10.6% recorded a week ago. The tool also shows that traders are confident that the central bank will cut interest rates in the June meeting.Meanwhile, investors await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the March policy meeting for fresh cues on the monetary policy outlook. In March, Fed officials guided that interest rates should remain in their current range of 4.25%-4.50% until they get clarity on how the President's policies will shape the monetary policy and the economic outlook.On the economic front, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be released on Thursday. The inflation report is expected to show that the headline and core CPI rose moderately by 2.6% and 3%, respectively.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD gains after German leaders agree on a coalition The strength in the EUR/USD pair is also driven by the Euro’s (EUR) outperformance. The major currency gains after German political parties agreed to form a coalition. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Frederich Merz, reached a deal with centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) to form a government, Reuters report. A positive development in stabilization in Germany’s government would advance debt-restructuring plans and the creation of the infrastructure fund.However, investors brace for volatility in the Euro in the face of Trump-led tariffs. Market participants expect that Trump's imposition of 20% reciprocal tariffs on the Eurozone will dampen the already vulnerable Eurozone economic growth, especially in Germany, the largest exporting nation of the bloc to the US.In response to Trump’s higher import duties, finance ministers of all Euro area countries are scheduled to meet in Warsaw on Friday to discuss measures to contain the likely consequences of tariffs imposed by the US. Ahead of the meeting, Poland Finance Minister Andrzej Domański said, "Disrupted supply chains and rising costs for companies will affect European growth ratios and currencies."Additionally, the deepening expectation of more interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB) is also expected to exert some pressure on the Euro. On Tuesday, ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus said that a “25 basis points (bps) rate cut is needed in April.” Šimkus added that the US tariff announcement warrants a “more accommodative” monetary policy, therefore, we need to move to a “less restrictive policy stance”.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD climbs above 1.1050EUR/USD jumps above 1.1050 on Wednesday and aims to revisit the six-month high of 1.1147. The near-term trend of the major currency pair is bullish as it holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.0856.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds higher after cooling down to near 60.00, suggesting that a bullish momentum has resumed.Looking down, the March 31 high of 1.0850 will act as the major support zone for the pair. Conversely, the September 25 high of 1.1214 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
13:34 How fast is too fast for the SNB? – Commerzbank
The Swiss franc has emerged as a clear winner amidst the recent market turbulence following Donald Trump's tariff announcement, appreciating significantly against major currencies.
The Swiss franc has emerged as a clear winner amidst the recent market turbulence following Donald Trump's tariff announcement, appreciating significantly against major currencies. However, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) faces challenges as the strong franc could weaken inflation and harm the economy, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.Swiss franc surges amid tariff uncertainty"Amid the huge market moves following Donald Trump's tariff announcement, one clear winner has emerged: the Swiss franc. Since last week, the franc has gained more than 5% against the US dollar (and thus also appreciated against the other G10 currencies), and in EUR/CHF we are now trading almost 3 cents lower than a week ago. We have to pat ourselves on the back a little at this point - our forecast of a stronger franc no longer seems so far-fetched.""However, we should not pat ourselves on the back just yet. There is a big problem: the SNB is unlikely to be happy that the franc has appreciated so much in such a short time. For almost a year now, it has repeatedly stressed the risk of inflation weakening too much and even falling into deflationary territory. And in this context, a strong franc is particularly unwelcome as it further reduces inflationary pressures, especially for a small open economy like Switzerland.""However, it probably cannot stand by and watch the CHF appreciate forever. If it goes much further - or the tempo accelerates - the SNB is likely to take countermeasures. And since the scope for rate cuts is limited, (more pronounced) interventions are likely again, in contrast to last year. However, given the current situation in the White House, the warning shots are likely to be fewer than usual. I would therefore not exaggerate the strength of the franc."
13:18 USD/JPY: Oversold weakness has not stabilized – UOB Group
UD Dollar (USD) has gathered downward momentum vs Japanese Yen (JPY), but it might not be able to break below 145.00.
UD Dollar (USD) has gathered downward momentum vs Japanese Yen (JPY), but it might not be able to break below 145.00. In the longer run, oversold weakness has not stabilized; there is a chance for USD to drop below 145.00 again before the risk of another rebound increases, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.USD can drop below 145.00 again24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, we were of the view that USD 'is likely to trade in a range between 146.00 and 149.00.' USD traded in a 145.95/148.12 range and closed at 146.28. While the decline in the early Asian trade today has gathered momentum, USD might not be able to break below 145.00 (there is another support level at 144.40). Resistance levels are at 146.10 and 146.65."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "When USD was at 147.50 yesterday (08 Apr), we pointed out that 'the oversold weakness in USD has not stabilized.' We indicated that 'there is a chance for USD to drop below 145.00 again before the risk of another rebound increases.' We will continue to hold the same view provided that 148.50 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 149.00 yesterday) is not breached. Looking ahead, if USD closes below 145.00, it will increase the likelihood of a drop to the significant support at 143.50."
13:05 Portugal Global Trade Balance rose from previous €-7.211B to €-6.653B in February
Portugal Global Trade Balance rose from previous €-7.211B to €-6.653B in February
12:53 RBNZ cuts rates as expected – Commerzbank
As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.5% this morning. After the RBNZ had recently cut interest rates in large steps of 50 basis points each, the pace has been slowed down, as expected.
As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.5% this morning. After the RBNZ had recently cut interest rates in large steps of 50 basis points each, the pace has been slowed down, as expected. However, further rate cuts were still on the cards, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. NZD under pressure amid trade turmoil"Inflation based on the monthly indicator, which reflects only a bit less than half of the actual CPI basket, has recently picked up slightly. However, the central bank rightly continues to view inflation as comfortably within its target corridor of 1-3%, giving it sufficient flexibility to react to further (international) surprises.""New Zealand is less exposed to US tariffs than other countries. After all, New Zealand's exports to the US have 'only' been subject to the 10% base tariff since the weekend, and the US accounts for only about 11% of New Zealand's exports. However, 50% of all New Zealand exports go to Asia, where there is currently a lot of uncertainty due to the very high US tariffs in some areas." "The NZD's weakness in recent days is therefore best explained by these indirect effects of US tariffs on New Zealand. As a small, open economy, New Zealand is of course particularly dependent on international trade. Continued turbulence in international trade will therefore continue to weigh on the NZD."
12:50 CNY: 7.35 and on it goes – Commerzbank
So far, the Chinese currency has not responded to the US tariffs with a major devaluation. But many small devaluations can add up to a big effect. USD/CNY rose as high as 7.35 this morning, the weakest level for the CNY since 2007.
So far, the Chinese currency has not responded to the US tariffs with a major devaluation. But many small devaluations can add up to a big effect. USD/CNY rose as high as 7.35 this morning, the weakest level for the CNY since 2007. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) has been steadily raising its USD-CNY fixing in recent days, signalling to the market that it is comfortable with a gradual depreciation of the CNY, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. USD/CNH continues to trade above USD/CNY"The PBoC sets a daily reference value for the USD/CNY exchange rate around which the market-traded rate is allowed to fluctuate by 2% before the central bank itself intervenes or instructs the state banks to do so. In purely mathematical terms, the rate could have risen to 7.3507 in today's trading, so the market used almost all of its room for manoeuvre today.""In contrast, the more freely traded USD/CNH continues to trade above USD/CNY, suggesting that the market is speculating that the PBoC will raise its fixing rate further in the coming days and allow the CNY to depreciate further.""With the additional 84% tariffs that came into effect a few minutes ago, on top of the 20% tariffs already imposed in February and March and the tariffs from Trump's first term, bringing the tariff rate on Chinese exports to the US to over 100%, the CNY is expected to depreciate further against the US Dollar."
12:46 BoE: Major shift in global trading arrangements could harm financial stability by depressing growth
"A major shift in global trading arrangements could harm financial stability by depressing growth," the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee said in a statement following its two-day meeting.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
"A major shift in global trading arrangements could harm financial stability by depressing growth," the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee said in a statement following its two-day meeting.Key takeaways"Risks linked to debt sustainability concerns, including sharp yield rises, could crystalise quickly particularly if accompanied by rapid capital outflows.""Probability of adverse events and potential severity of impact has risen after fall in risky asset prices.""Will monitor leverage and concentration in core markets and trading strategies that could amplify stress.""Global risks are particularly relevant to UK financial stability.""Global developments pose additional risks especially for some highly leveraged corporate borrowers.""Robust regulation standards support economic growth.""A further reduction in global co-operation could reduce resilience.""UK banks can support economy if conditions worsen substantially more than expected.""Countercyclical capital buffer rate maintained at 2%." BoE FAQs What does the Bank of England do and how does it impact the Pound? The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP). How does the Bank of England’s monetary policy influence Sterling? When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Pound? In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Pound Sterling? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
12:31 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $30.39 per troy ounce, up 1.88% from the $29.83 it cost on Tuesday.
Silver prices have increased by 5.17% since the beginning of the year. Unit measure Silver Price Today in USD Troy Ounce 30.39 1 Gram 0.98
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 100.17 on Wednesday, up from 100.02 on Tuesday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 100.17 on Wednesday, up from 100.02 on Tuesday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
12:24 Gold jumps to $3,050 as US tariffs go into effect
Gold price (XAU/USD) bounces higher and recovers to $3,050 at the time of writing on Wednesday as United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariffs come into effect.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price edges higher and jumps over 2% on Wednesday. Risk-off mood and rising bets of Fed rate cuts amid recession fears also benefit Gold. Gold bounces from the sub-$3,000 region to $3,050 at the time of writing. Gold price (XAU/USD) bounces higher and recovers to $3,050 at the time of writing on Wednesday as United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariffs come into effect. At one point this week, markets were hoping for a last-minute solution as several news outlets informed on Monday that President Trump was considering a 90-day pause in tariffs for all countries except China. However, the White House stated that any suggestion that President Trump was considering a 90-day pause in tariffs was “fake news.” “Gold’s rebound reflects growing investor anxiety over tariff threats and the potential reshaping of global trade norms,” says Christopher Wong, a foreign currency strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. Bullion remains a good hedge against a more disorderly global economy, Wong said, Bloomberg reports. The market also speculates that heightened volatility may prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to speed up interest rate cuts to prevent a recession. Lower rates typically benefit Gold, which doesn’t pay interest. Daily digest market movers: China tops Gold buyingShares of Muthoot Finance, an Indian financial corporation and the largest Gold loan non-bank financial company in the country, declined as much as 6.3% after the Indian central bank said it would undertake a comprehensive review of gold loan regulations, which could potentially increase competition in the sector.The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in May’s meeting surging to 53.5%, compared with only 10.6% a week ago. For June, the chances of lower borrowing costs are 100%, with 55.2% anticipating a 50 basis point (bp) rate cut. Chinese investors funneled a record amount of cash into Gold-backed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) last week, drawn by the asset's safety as combative trade war rhetoric from the world’s biggest economies shakes global markets. Inflows to four major onshore Gold ETFs, including Huaan Yifu Gold ETF, hit a record of 7.6 billion yuan ($1 billion) last week, according to Bloomberg’s calculations, with strong inflows continuing this week, Bloomberg reports. Gold Price Technical Analysis: Unable to avoidWith the US tariffs taking effect this Wednesday, the markets' reaction is one still with some surprise. It seems that markets were positioned for some last-minute solution or delay, which would soften the actual blow and impact of the tariffs. Nonetheless, duties are taking effect immediately, and that is enough for last-minute investors to head back into Gold. Looking up, resistances are a bit spread out, with the first cap of the R1 resistance at $3,041 being tested when writing, followed by $3,057, a pivotal level since March 20. Further up, the R2 resistance at $3,089 precedes the current all-time high of $3,167.On the downside, the pivotal level of the March 14 high at $3,004 roughly coincides with the $3,000 round number. If this area does not hold as support, bears can target the S1 support at $2,964 and the $2,955 level, where clearly many buyers were interested in scooping up Gold on Monday. Further down, the S2 support at $2,945 is the last line of defense before the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,935.XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
12:20 ECB's Rehn: Downside risks have materialised since March rate meeting
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn said on Wednesday that the case for continuing rate cuts at the April meeting is supported by downside risks materializing, per Reuters.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn said on Wednesday that the case for continuing rate cuts at the April meeting is supported by downside risks materializing, per Reuters.Key takeaways"Tariff increases and increased uncertainty are already having adverse effects on economic growth in the Euro area and Finland in the short term.""Inflation appears to be stabilizing at target and growth outlook has further weakened as a result of trade war.""Large tariff increases will boost inflation in the United States, but in the Eurozone the effects on inflation can be two-way: tariff increases increase price pressures; slower growth dampens them.""Overall, however, the effects on Eurozone inflation are apparently modest."Market reactionThese comments failed to trigger a noticeable reaction in EUR/USD. At the time of press, EUR/USD was up 0.67% on the day at 1.1030. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region.
The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro.
QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
12:15 ECB’s Villeroy: Trump administration actions offer opportunity to boost Euro's international role
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bank of France head Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Wednesday that they estimate the trade conflict to reduce Eurozone growth by 0.25 percentage points this year, per Reuters.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bank of France head Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Wednesday that they estimate the trade conflict to reduce Eurozone growth by 0.25 percentage points this year, per Reuters.Key takeaways"The shock will not be negligible but it won't be a recession.""US President Donald Trump administration's actions harm the Dollar's supremacy, offers opportunity to boost Euro's international role.""ECB is fully mobilized to ensure financing of the economy and financial stability.""ECB monitors the financial system to make sure there is enough liquidity, including in times of market stress.""Certain market actors, like leveraged hedge funds, could face big liquidity needs."Market reactionEUR/USD holds its ground following these comments and was last seen rising 0.68% on the day at 1.1033. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region.
The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro.
QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
12:09 NZD/USD rises above 0.5550 on rising hope of de-escalation in global trade tensions
The NZD/USD pair is stabilizing near 0.5560 during Wednesday’s European session after three consecutive days of losses.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD ticks up as Trump’s comments fuel hopes of easing trade tensions.The NZD could encounter pressure as new US tariffs come into force, including a hefty 104% duty on Chinese imports.The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that markets are fully pricing in a Fed’s 25-basis-point rate cut as early as May.The NZD/USD pair is stabilizing near 0.5560 during Wednesday’s European session after three consecutive days of losses. The recovery was supported by comments from US President Donald Trump, who expressed openness to trade negotiations, fueling optimism for a potential de-escalation in global trade tensions.However, further upside may be limited as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains under pressure amid heightened market volatility. New US tariffs, including a significant 104% duty on Chinese imports, New Zealand’s close trading partner, took effect on Wednesday. Although the White House has signaled a willingness to engage in talks, China’s strong response—vowing to “fight to the end”—suggests that the trade conflict could persist.Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps), aligning with expectations. The move reflects growing concerns over weakening inflation, slowing economic growth, and early signs of labor market softness. Speculation is building that prolonged trade tensions could push the RBNZ toward a deeper 50 bps cut, with markets factoring in the possibility of up to 100 bps in further easing by 2025.In the United States (US), Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reiterated the central bank's commitment to a data-dependent policy approach. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are increasingly pricing in a 25 bps rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) as soon as May, though July remains the base case. By year-end, traders expect more than 100 bps in cumulative cuts. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
11:46 NZD/USD: Downward momentum is building – UOB Group
Downward momentum is building; New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to decline vs US Dollar (USD), but it is unclear whether it can break the major support at 0.5450.
Downward momentum is building; New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to decline vs US Dollar (USD), but it is unclear whether it can break the major support at 0.5450. In the longer run, it is too early to expect the weakness to stabilise, but it remains to be seen if NZD can decline to the next support at 0.5450, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. NZD is likely to decline24-HOUR VIEW: "We noted yesterday that 'downward momentum seems to have slowed slightly.' We added, 'This, combined with oversold conditions, suggests NZD is more likely to trade in a 0.5500/0.5600 range today instead of declining further.' NZD then traded in a higher range of 0.5521/0.5625, closing at 0.5535. NZD fell sharply in early Asian trade today, and downward momentum is building. Today, provided that NZD remain below 0.5570 (minor resistance is at 0.5540), it is likely to decline. However, it is unclear whether there is enough momentum for NZD to break the major support at 0.5450." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Following two straight days of decline in NZD, we highlighted yesterday (08 Apr, spot at 0.5545) that 'Although it is too early to expect the weakness to stabilise, it remains to be seen how much more can NZD decline.' We added, 'The next support is at 0.5450.' There is no change in our view. Looking ahead, should NZD break below 0.5450, it could drop further to 0.5405. On the upside, the ‘strong resistance’ level has moved lower to 0.5650 from 0.5690."
11:46 Eurozone growth to take a bigger hit from Trump’s tariffs than the ECB earlier estimated – Reuters
Citing sources with direct knowledge of the European Central Bank (ECB) thinking, Reuters reported on Wednesday that the “Eurozone growth is expected to take a bigger hit from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs than the ECB earlier estimated.”
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
Citing sources with direct knowledge of the European Central Bank (ECB) thinking, Reuters reported on Wednesday that the “Eurozone growth is expected to take a bigger hit from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs than the ECB earlier estimated.”Additional takeaways“Initial ECB estimate of 50 bps hit to growth in first year under revision.”“One source estimates growth hit in excess of 100 bps in first year.”Market reactionAt the time of writing, EUR/USD is sustaning the pullback from near 1.1100 levels, still up 0.66% so far. GDP FAQs What is GDP and how is it recorded? A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022.
Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted. How does GDP influence currencies? A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency.
When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate. How does higher GDP impact the price of Gold? When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.
11:43 RBNZ cuts rates, signals more easing ahead – ING
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a widely expected rate cut and opened the door to further easing as trade tensions weigh on the outlook. With AUD and NZD under pressure, any sign of de-escalation between China and the US could offer much-needed relief.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a widely expected rate cut and opened the door to further easing as trade tensions weigh on the outlook. With AUD and NZD under pressure, any sign of de-escalation between China and the US could offer much-needed relief.AUD and NZD struggle amid trade war pressures"The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut rates by 25bp to 3.5% this morning, matching expectations. Guidance remained dovish, with policymakers signalling more room to cut rates as trade war effects unfold. We now think the RBNZ will take rates below 3.0%, probably to a 2.75% terminal rate, which is still above market pricing for 2.5%." "The FX implications are very much secondary compared to the direction of trade news. AUD and NZD remain key laggards in G10 due to their proxy role for China. The People's Bank of China's (PBoC's) greater appetite for a lower yuan could take some pressure off the proxies, but it is not enough to trigger any strong rebound." "AUD/USD has broken below the key 0.60 mark and NZD may follow by breaching the 0.55 support in the coming sessions. Given how far Antipodeans have fallen, they will be the biggest beneficiaries from any sign of de-escalation between China and the US."
11:38 EUR/GBP climbs toward 0.8600 amid growing hopes of easing trade tensions
EUR/GBP continues its upward momentum for a fifth consecutive session, trading near 0.8600 during Wednesday’s European hours.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/GBP edges higher as Trump’s remarks boost optimism over easing trade tensions.The European Commission is readying retaliatory tariffs of up to 25% on €22.1 billion worth of US exports.Expectations for monetary easing have strengthened, with markets now fully pricing in a rate cut in May.EUR/GBP continues its upward momentum for a fifth consecutive session, trading near 0.8600 during Wednesday’s European hours. The currency cross is buoyed by improving global trade sentiment after US President Donald Trump signaled a willingness to negotiate with international partners, raising hopes of de-escalating trade tensions. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added to the optimism, revealing that nearly 70 countries have reached out to discuss tariff measures.Despite the upbeat tone, the European Commission (EU) is preparing retaliatory tariffs of up to 25% on US exports worth about €22.1 billion. In a recent discussion with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, Commission EU President Ursula von der Leyen proposed a "negotiated resolution" to the "widespread disruption" caused by US tariffs.Moreover, dovish expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) may weigh on the Euro. Policymakers, including Italy’s Piero Cipollone, France’s François Villeroy de Galhau, and Greece’s Yannis Stournaras, have signaled support for further monetary easing. Ahead of a key meeting of Eurozone finance ministers in Warsaw on Friday, Stournaras emphasized that new tariffs wouldn’t derail an expected April rate cut, estimating a potential 0.3%–0.4% drag on Eurozone GDP in the first year.The upside of the EUR/GBP cross could be limited as the Pound Sterling (GBP) is finding support from rising UK gilt yields, with the 10-year yield hovering around 4.66%. While US tariffs pose risks, the UK’s limited 10% exposure and potential to replace disrupted suppliers could cushion the blow. The UK government expects the direct GDP impact to be less than 0.1%.Meanwhile, expectations for Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts have firmed. Markets are now fully pricing in a rate cut in May—up from 50% earlier—and anticipate three cuts by the end of 2025. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
11:38 AUD/USD: Downward momentum has increase slightly – UOB Group
Downward momentum has increase slightly; Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to edge lower but is unlikely to reach 0.5870 vs US Dollar (USD).
Downward momentum has increase slightly; Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to edge lower but is unlikely to reach 0.5870 vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, further declines are not ruled out; given the deeply oversold conditions, it is unclear if AUD can reach the next support at 0.5870, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Further declines are not ruled out for AUD/USD24-HOUR VIEW: "After AUD plunged last Friday and on Monday, we indicated yesterday, Tuesday, that 'the sharp drop appears to be overdone.' We added, 'this, combined with early signs of slowing momentum, indicates that instead of continuing to drop, AUD is more likely to trade in a range of 0.5945/0.6110 today.' Our view of range trading was not wrong, even though AUD traded in a narrower range than expected (0.5947/0.6085), closing near the low at 0.5956, down by 0.55%. Downward momentum has increased slightly, and this is likely to lead to AUD edging lower. As momentum is not strong for now, any decline is unlikely to reach the major support at 0.5870 (there is another support at 0.5900). To keep sustain the momentum, AUD must not break above 0.6025 (minor resistance is at 0.5980)." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "AUD fell precipitously last Friday and fell further on Monday. Yesterday, Tuesday (08 Apr, spot at 0.6005), we indicated that 'although further declines are not ruled out, given the deeply oversold conditions, it is unclear if AUD can reach the next support at 0.5870.' We continue to hold the same view. Overall, only a breach of 0.6155 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 0.6185 yesterday) would suggest that the current downward pressure has eased."
11:33 Japan’s Top FX Diplomat Mimura: Closely watching market moves with high sense of urgency
Following the meeting between the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Japanese Financial Services Agency (FSA) and Ministry of Finance (MoF) on Wednesday, Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister For International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, said on Wednesday, they are “closely watching market
Following the meeting between the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Japanese Financial Services Agency (FSA) and Ministry of Finance (MoF) on Wednesday, Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister For International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, said on Wednesday, they are “closely watching market moves with high sense of urgency.”Additional quotesDiscussed unstable moves in financial markets.Talks were held in response to US tariffs.Agreed to do utmost to maintain global financial market stability.Market reactionUSD/JPY extends the rebound from near 144.60 levels to now trade at 145.61, still down 0.44% on the day.
11:30 USD: Sell America? – ING
Just when the dollar seemed to be regaining some confidence, the US decision to go ahead with a tariff hike of 104% on China led to a rotation away from the greenback.
Just when the dollar seemed to be regaining some confidence, the US decision to go ahead with a tariff hike of 104% on China led to a rotation away from the greenback. Interestingly, dollar deleveraging favoured European currencies yesterday, perhaps on the view that the measured EU response to US tariffs makes a trade deal more likely, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.Balance of risks is tilted to the downside today in DXY"One of the reasons why the dollar is suffering the most from additional tariffs on China is that markets feel the lack of immediate substitutes for some Chinese products means even greater inflationary/recessionary risks for the US. At the same time, there is a diminishing negative effect on Chinese exporters from additional tariffs.""While it’s true that Trump is starting to negotiate with other key partners (like Korea yesterday), the technical times for trade deals aren’t short, especially considering the large number of parts involved at the same time. We’ll watch closely whether European equities outperform US ones again today." "Should that happen in unison with a further widening in the 10-year Atlantic spread (which has moved from 154 to 175bp in the past 24 hours), it would signal the additional loss of confidence in USD-denominated assets that can add pressure on the greenback as markets lose confidence in its safe haven value. We think the balance of risks is tilted to the downside today in DXY, which can break below 102.0."
11:29 ECB's Knot: Impact of trade war on long term is likely inflationary
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Klaas Knot said on Wednesday that a trade was in the long term is a negative supply shock, per Reuters.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Klaas Knot said on Wednesday that a trade was in the long term is a negative supply shock, per Reuters.Key takeaways"The impact of a trade war on the long term is likely inflationary.""Risk is that we move to a supply/demand situation like in 2022, which means we have to be vigilant on inflation.""Market functioning so far has been preserved.""Reversal of bond markets needs to be monitored.""Reality on markets can of course change quickly.""Europe can only build resilience by strengthening internal cohesion.""EU needs to strengthen internal market.""As Europeans, there is no choice but to come together and realize our own strength."Market reactionEUR/USD holds its ground following these comments and was last seen trading at 1.1020, where it was up 0.55% on the day. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region.
The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro.
QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
11:22 GBP/USD: Likely to trade between 1.2740 and 1.2860 – UOB Group
Current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase, probably between 1.2740 and 1.2860.
Current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase, probably between 1.2740 and 1.2860. In the longer run, Pound Sterling (GBP) could decline further vs US Dollar (USD); it is unclear if it can reach the next major support at 1.2580, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. GBP to decline further against USD24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, we indicated that GBP 'could edge lower to 1.2675 before stabilisation is likely.' We also indicated that 'any further decline is unlikely to reach 1.2580.' Our expectations did not materialise as GBP traded between 1.2725 and 1.2812 before closing higher by 0.33% at 1.2766. The current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase, probably between 1.2740 and 1.2860." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "There is not much to add to our update from yesterday, 08 Apr, when GBP was at 1.2760. As highlighted, the dramatic plunge in GBP late last week and early this week appears excessive. As there is no sign of stabilisation just yet, GBP 'could decline further, but it is unclear if it can reach the next major support at 1.2580.' On the upside, a breach of 1.2950 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 1.3000 yesterday) would suggest that GBP is not declining further."
11:21 Palladium price today: Rare metals advance at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $914.75 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair advancing from its previous close at $909.75. In the meantime, Platinum (XPT) trades at $924.55 against the United States Dollar (USD) early in the European session, also up after the XPT/USD pair settled at $922.10 at the previous close.
Palladium FAQs Why do people buy Palladium?
Palladium is a rare and valuable precious metal with strong industrial demand, particularly in the automotive sector. It is widely used in catalytic converters to reduce vehicle emissions, making it essential for global environmental regulations. Investors also see palladium as a store of value, similar to gold and silver, and a potential hedge against inflation. Given its supply constraints and high demand, palladium often attracts traders looking for price volatility and profit opportunities. What is Palladium in trading?
In trading, palladium (XPD/USD) is considered both an industrial and a precious metal. It is traded on major commodity exchanges like the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the London Platinum and Palladium Market (LPPM). Traders speculate on palladium prices through futures contracts, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and spot markets. Since palladium supply is concentrated in a few countries, particularly Russia and South Africa, geopolitical and mining disruptions can lead to significant price swings, making it an attractive asset for short-term traders and long-term investors alike. Is Palladium more expensive than Gold?
Palladium has historically been less expensive than gold, but in recent years, it has traded at a premium due to rising demand and tight supply. Prices fluctuate based on market conditions, but palladium has, at times, outperformed gold due to its critical role in the automotive industry. However, as markets shift and industrial demand changes, the price relationship between the two metals can vary. What does the price of Palladium depend on?
Palladium prices are influenced by several factors, including industrial demand, supply constraints, and macroeconomic conditions. The automotive industry is the biggest driver of demand, as stricter emissions regulations increase the need for palladium-based catalytic converters. Supply is heavily dependent on mining output from Russia and South Africa, making the metal vulnerable to geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions. Additionally, broader market trends, such as the strength of the US dollar, interest rates, and economic growth, can impact palladium prices, as they do with other precious metals. Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) prices mentioned above are based on the FXStreet data feed for Contracts for Differences (CFDs). (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
11:19 CNY: Depreciation remains a key policy response – ING
In China, the PBoC set the USD/CNY fixing at 7.2066 this morning. This marks the fifth consecutive adjustment higher, reinforcing the view that a controlled weakening of the yuan (albeit not a devaluation) is part of China’s policy response to tariffs, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes
In China, the PBoC set the USD/CNY fixing at 7.2066 this morning. This marks the fifth consecutive adjustment higher, reinforcing the view that a controlled weakening of the yuan (albeit not a devaluation) is part of China’s policy response to tariffs, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notesBeijing is loosening its grip on the yuan"USD/CNH spiked above 7.400 yesterday, with the CNH-CNY gap exceeding 1%. Chinese state banks reportedly stepped in by selling dollars against CNY, which prompted a rebound in the offshore yuan. CNH is now trading at 7.38 per $, 0.5% weaker than the onshore CNY.""Despite the interventions by state banks overnight, it appears that the PBoC is still not overly concerned about the USD/CNH rally. Officials have the possibility of draining liquidity from CNH should they feel particularly uneasy about CNH volatility: that would show through a spike in short-term CNH-implied yield." "The one-week yield is currently at 2%, well below the 5% peaks seen in recent instances. That again confirms that Beijing is loosening its grip on the yuan to absorb part of the tariff shock. A return above 7.40 in USD/CNH would be entirely in line with that approach."
11:15 EUR/USD: Any advance might not reach 1.1050 – UOB Group
Bias for Euro (EUR) is on the upside, but any advance might not reach 1.1050.
Bias for Euro (EUR) is on the upside, but any advance might not reach 1.1050. In the longer run, decrease in momentum indicates the chance for EUR to rise has diminished; a breach of 1.0850 would suggest EUR has entered a range-trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Chance for EUR to rise has diminished24-HOUR VIEW: "Following EUR’s choppy price movements on Monday, we indicated yesterday 'the price action provides no fresh clues.' We expected EUR to 'trade between 1.0860 and 1.1030.' EUR, however, traded in a narrower range than expected (1.0886/1.0991). Despite the relatively quiet price movements, there has been a slight increase in upward momentum. The bias for today is on the upside, but any advance might not reach 1.1050. The next resistance at 1.1090 is unlikely to come into view. Support levels are at 1.0950 and 1.0920." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We continue to hold the same view as yesterday (08 Apr, spot at 1.0925). As highlighted, the pullback in EUR to 1.0881 on Monday 'has resulted in a decrease in upward momentum, and the chance for EUR to rise has diminished.' A breach of 1.0850 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that instead of advancing further, EUR 'has entered a range-trading phase.' Looking ahead, if EUR closes above 1.1050, it will increase the likelihood of it retesting the month-to-date high, near 1.1145."
11:12 EUR: Benefitting from USD losses – ING
EUR/USD has rallied back above 1.10, banking on idiosyncratic USD weakness. The Atlantic spreads can have inverse correlations with FX if there are signs that markets are losing confidence in a broader spectrum of USD-denominated assets, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
EUR/USD has rallied back above 1.10, banking on idiosyncratic USD weakness. The Atlantic spreads can have inverse correlations with FX if there are signs that markets are losing confidence in a broader spectrum of USD-denominated assets, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.USD stands to face asymmetrical downside impact from recession risk"The euro remains in a good position to benefit from any USD confidence crisis, being the second most liquid currency in the world and a preferred alternative to the dollar for FX reserves. Incidentally, domestic soft growth is the normality for the euro but an abnormality for the dollar, and the greenback stands to face asymmetrical downside impact from recession risk.""So far, the vicinity to an increasingly likely ECB cut is not harming the euro. If indeed the focus remains on the 'sell America' narrative into next week’s ECB meeting, a signal that the ECB is ready to ease policy while the Fed is stuck with inflationary fears might even have an abnormal positive effect on EUR/USD.""Tariff headlines will dominate again today, and expect FX volatility to remain elevated across G10 and EM. EUR/USD may find some extra support for now should it clear the 1.100 level."
11:06 RBNZ: Staying measured – Standard Chartered
RBNZ cuts 25bps to 3.50%, in line with February guidance and our expectations. Statement strikes a steady tone: downside risks noted, but no rush to reprice the cycle.
RBNZ cuts 25bps to 3.50%, in line with February guidance and our expectations. Statement strikes a steady tone: downside risks noted, but no rush to reprice the cycle. We still expect another 25bps cut in May, barring a sharp deterioration in data or global demand, Standard Chartered's economists Bader Al Sarraf and Nicholas Chia note. Sticking to the script"The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered a 25bps cut to 3.50% at its 9 April Monetary Policy Review, in line with prior guidance and our expectations. The tone of the statement was noticeably more cautious, with recent increases in global trade barriers now cited as a clear downside risk to both global and domestic activity. That said, the Committee kept its options open, noting it has scope to ease further “as appropriate,” but refrained from pre-committing to the pace. We believe this reflects a preference to calibrate the cycle – not rush it.""The RBNZ emphasized that the full effects of the prior easing cycle are still feeding through, offering room to proceed cautiously. Importantly, there was no change in the RBNZ’s language around the exchange rate, suggesting no immediate discomfort with NZD levels – even after the recent depreciation brought the currency to its lowest since March 2020 ahead of the decision. NZD-USD initially rose c.25 pips post-decision on the absence of dovish surprises but retraced its gains as broader risk sentiment and trade-related uncertainty remained dominant market drivers.""We expect a follow-up 25bps cut in May. While global trade tensions pose downside risks, we think the RBNZ will be watching how quickly they feed into domestic data. Put simply, while the risk of a larger move exists, we think the Committee remains more inclined to ease steadily unless the external backdrop deteriorates more sharply."
11:03 New Zealand: RBNZ reduces OCR by 25 bps, with scope for deeper cuts ahead – UOB Group
As widely expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bps to 3.50%.
As widely expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bps to 3.50%. This is the RBNZ’s fifth straight cut since it kicked off an easing cycle in 2024, bringing rates lower by a total of 200bps since August 2024, UOB Group's economist Lee Sue Ann notes. RBNZ is going to cut even more "In a widely expected move, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut interest rates by 25 bps from 3.75% to 3.50%. The cut is the RBNZ’s fifth rate reduction since it began an easing cycle in mid-2024." "The RBNZ noted that inflation remained near the midpoint of its 1% to 3%, and while economic growth was resilient, the RBNZ has scope to cut interest rates further, as the full extent and effect of Trump’s tariff policies becomes clearer." "We think that we could see more rate cuts being needed as compared to our base case scenario for two more 25 bps cuts for the rest of the year. The next monetary policy meeting is on 28 May, and the Monetary Policy Statement update then could be an opportunity for the RBNZ to signal more cuts in order to support the economy. We will review our forecasts accordingly then, as we continue to monitor ongoing developments."
10:52 Pound Sterling extends gains against US Dollar on fears of potential US recession
The Pound Sterling (GBP) extends the previous day’s recovery to near 1.2850 against the US Dollar (USD) in Wednesday’s European session.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling rises to near 1.2850 against the US Dollar as investors expect the US-China trade war to lead the US to a recession.US President Trump increased reciprocal tariffs on China to 104% against Beijing’s retaliation.Deutsche Bank expects the BoE to cut interest rates by 50 bps in May.The Pound Sterling (GBP) extends the previous day’s recovery to near 1.2850 against the US Dollar (USD) in Wednesday’s European session. The GBP/USD pair advances as the US Dollar continues to face selling pressure amid firming expectations that the United States (US) could enter a recession this year. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, plummets to near 102.00.A fresh escalation in the trade war between the US and China has prompted risks of a recession in the US. On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump signed an order to increase tariffs on China to 104%, following Beijing’s retaliation on his reciprocal tariffs. Trump also blamed China for currency manipulation to offset the impact of higher duties.Last week, China increased the levy on imports from the US by 34% in retaliation to similar reciprocal tariffs imposed by Trump on the Liberation Day.Additionally, accelerating Federal Reserve (Fed) dovish bets due to increasing risks of a US recession have also weighed on the US Dollar. According to a CME FedWatch tool, the central bank's probability of cutting interest rates in May has increased to 52.5% from 10.6% recorded a week ago.For more cues on the monetary policy outlook, investors will focus on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the March policy meeting, which will be published at 19:00 GMT. In the policy meeting, the Fed left interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, and officials collectively maintained their guidance for two interest rate cuts this year.This week, investors will also focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be released on Thursday. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling remains on tenterhooksThe Pound Sterling shows a volatile performance against its major peers on Wednesday. Investors brace for more volatility ahead as protectionist policies by US President Trump have stemmed the risks of a global recession. Analysts at JPMorgan believe the rapid escalation with US tariffs on China is disruptive enough to push the global economy into a recession.China is known as the world’s manufacturing hub, given its competitive advantage in labor cost and supportive government policies. Financial market participants worry that Chinese firms will look for other markets to sell their products if its trade war with the US brews further. Such a scenario will be unfavorable for Europe as it seems incapable of battling a price war against China.Additionally, traders have raised Bank of England (BoE) dovish bets amid fears that Trump’s tariff policy could send shockwaves through the United Kingdom (UK) economy. Analysts at Deutsche Bank expect that the BoE may consider a more "forceful" response to current economic conditions and deliver a larger-than-usual interest rate cut of 50 basis points (bps) in the May policy meeting. The central bank identified a substantial decline in survey activity indicators, unwarranted tightening of financial conditions, and fears of labor market slowdown as key reasons behind the BoE’s ultra-dovish decision.This week, investors will focus on the monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the factory data for February, which will be released on Friday. The UK economy is expected to have grown by 0.1% after contracting at a similar pace in January.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling climbs above 1.2800The Pound Sterling rises above 1.2800 against the US Dollar on Wednesday but struggles to reclaim the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.2877.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds after falling to near 40.00. A fresh bearish momentum could be triggered if the RSI fails to hold the 40.00 level.Looking down, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement plotted from late September high to mid-January low near 1.2610 will act as a key support zone for the pair. On the upside, the psychological figure of 1.3000 will act as a key resistance zone. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
,
10:51 Forex Today: US Dollar under pressure on trade war escalation, eyes on FOMC Minutes
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, April 9:
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, April 9:The US Dollar (USD) continues to weaken against its rivals on Wednesday, pressured by growing fears over a further escalation in the global trade conflict. Later in the American session, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will publish the minutes of its March policy meeting.Following a bullish opening on Tuesday, Wall Street's main indexes turned south and closed the day deep in negative territory as investors refrained from committing to a steady risk rally. Early Wednesday, US stock index futures trade marginally lower on the day, while the USD Index loses about 0.7% at 102.20. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.73% 0.57% -0.12% -0.38% 0.45% 0.48% -1.28% EUR 0.73% 1.60% 1.25% 0.97% 1.15% 1.86% 0.06% GBP -0.57% -1.60% -1.66% -0.61% -0.46% 0.25% -1.51% JPY 0.12% -1.25% 1.66% -0.23% 1.52% 1.80% -0.84% CAD 0.38% -0.97% 0.61% 0.23% 0.50% 0.85% -1.17% AUD -0.45% -1.15% 0.46% -1.52% -0.50% 0.69% -1.05% NZD -0.48% -1.86% -0.25% -1.80% -0.85% -0.69% -1.74% CHF 1.28% -0.06% 1.51% 0.84% 1.17% 1.05% 1.74% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
US President Donald Trump said late Tuesday that China is manipulating the Chinese Yuan to offset against tariffs after the USD/CNH pair hit a new record high. Trump added that he expects to reach an agreement with China eventually. In the meantime, citing people with knowledge of the matter, Reuters reported early Wednesday that senior officials from China’s State Council, several government and regulatory bodies plan to hold a meeting as early as Wednesday in response to Trump’s 104% tariffs on Chinese goods.During the Asian trading hours, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced that it lowered the policy rate, the Official Cash Rate (OCR), by 25 basis points to 3.5%. In the policy statement, the RBNZ noted that a further reduction in the OCR is appropriate. After dropping to a multi-year low below 0.5500 in the Asian session, NZD/USD reversed its direction and was last seen trading in positive territory at around 0.5550.EUR/USD registered modest gains on Tuesday and continued to stretch higher in the Asian session on Wednesday, supported by the broad-based selling pressure surrounding the USD. The pair was last seen rising about 0.8% on the day near 1.1050.Following a sharp two-day decline, GBP/USD staged a rebound on Tuesday. The pair holds its ground early Wednesday and trades above 1.2800.Gold failed to make a decisive move in either direction on Tuesday and closed the day flat below $3,000. XAU/USD benefits from risk-aversion early Wednesday and gains more than 2% on the day above $3,040.USD/JPY lost more than 1% on Tuesday and extended its slide in the Asian session on Wednesday. At the time of press, the pair was down 0.6% on the day at 145.40. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said earlier in the day that they will continue to raise rates if the economy keeps improving in line with the outlook. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
10:51 WTI drops to near $57.70 as fears of weakening global demand intensify
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil continues to decline for the second consecutive day, trading near $57.70 during early European hours on Wednesday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}WTI remains under pressure amid growing concerns about weakening global demand. New US tariffs came into effect today—most notably a sharp 104% duty on imports from China. The OPEC+ alliance is set to boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in May.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil continues to decline for the second consecutive day, trading near $57.70 during early European hours on Wednesday. The drop in Oil prices is driven by mounting concerns over weakening global demand, exacerbated by escalating tensions in the ongoing US-China trade war.New tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump took effect today, including a steep 104% duty on imports from China—the world’s largest Oil consumer. While the White House has signaled a willingness to engage in trade negotiations, Beijing has responded firmly, vowing to "fight to the end," suggesting that the dispute could be drawn out.According to Reuters, Ye Lin, Vice President of Oil Commodity Markets at Rystad Energy, commented: “China’s 50,000 to 100,000 barrels per day of Oil demand growth is at risk if the trade war persists. However, a robust domestic stimulus could help offset some of the losses.”Despite the tension, President Trump has expressed openness to resolving trade issues through dialogue, raising hopes for a potential de-escalation. Supporting this sentiment, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that nearly 70 countries have contacted the administration to discuss tariff measures.Adding to the downward pressure on Oil, the OPEC+ alliance—which includes OPEC members and partners like Russia—plans to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day in May. The production boost raises concerns that the market could shift into surplus.Meanwhile, data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 1.057 million barrels last week, partially reversing the previous week’s build of 6.037 million barrels. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
10:48 Crude oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Wednesday, early in the European session.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Wednesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $57.71 per barrel, down from Tuesday’s close at $57.89. Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also shedding ground, trading at $61.17 after its previous daily close at $61.37.
WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil?
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia. Disclaimer: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent oil prices mentioned above are based on FXStreet data feed for Contracts for Differences (CFDs). (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
10:40 EUR/INR today: Indian Rupee cross rates edge higher at the start of the European session
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade on the front foot at the beginning of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade on the front foot at the beginning of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 95.79, with the EUR/INR pair rising from its previous close at 94.51 Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling (GBP) trades at 111.10 against the INR in the early European trading hours, also advancing after the GBP/INR pair settled at 110.32 at the previous close.
Indian economy FAQs How does the Indian economy impact the Indian Rupee?
The Indian economy has averaged a growth rate of 6.13% between 2006 and 2023, which makes it one of the fastest growing in the world. India’s high growth has attracted a lot of foreign investment. This includes Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into physical projects and Foreign Indirect Investment (FII) by foreign funds into Indian financial markets. The greater the level of investment, the higher the demand for the Rupee (INR). Fluctuations in Dollar-demand from Indian importers also impact INR. What is the impact of Oil prices on the Rupee?
India has to import a great deal of its Oil and gasoline so the price of Oil can have a direct impact on the Rupee. Oil is mostly traded in US Dollars (USD) on international markets so if the price of Oil rises, aggregate demand for USD increases and Indian importers have to sell more Rupees to meet that demand, which is depreciative for the Rupee. How does inflation in India impact the Rupee?
Inflation has a complex effect on the Rupee. Ultimately it indicates an increase in money supply which reduces the Rupee’s overall value. Yet if it rises above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% target, the RBI will raise interest rates to bring it down by reducing credit. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (the difference between interest rates and inflation) strengthen the Rupee. They make India a more profitable place for international investors to park their money. A fall in inflation can be supportive of the Rupee. At the same time lower interest rates can have a depreciatory effect on the Rupee. How does seasonal US Dollar demand from importers and banks impact the Rupee?
India has run a trade deficit for most of its recent history, indicating its imports outweigh its exports. Since the majority of international trade takes place in US Dollars, there are times – due to seasonal demand or order glut – where the high volume of imports leads to significant US Dollar- demand. During these periods the Rupee can weaken as it is heavily sold to meet the demand for Dollars. When markets experience increased volatility, the demand for US Dollars can also shoot up with a similarly negative effect on the Rupee. Rates for Indian Rupee crosses mentioned above are based on the FXStreet data feed for Contracts for Differences (CFDs). (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
10:20 China’s white paper: Willing to communicate with US on important issues in economy, trade
China released a white paper on US trade and economic relations on Wednesday.
China released a white paper on US trade and economic relations on Wednesday.Key takeawaysChina will take countermeasures to safeguard rights, interests.Firmly opposes unilateral, bullying restrictive measures.Has always believed the essence of China, US economic, trade ties is mutually beneficial and win-win.It is normal for China and the US to have differences and frictions in economic and trade cooperation.The US will not solve its own problems by raising tariffs.China is unwilling to fight a trade war, but the Chinese government will never sit idly by and watch the legitimate rights and interests of the Chinese people be damaged and deprived.China has a firm will and abundant means, will resolutely counteract and fight to the end.Market reactionAs of writing, AUD/USD is up 0.62% on the day, trading at 0.6000.
09:45 USD/CHF tumbles below 0.8450 amid risk-off mood, eyes on FOMC Minutes
The USD/CHF pair extends its downside to near 0.8435 during the early European session. The Swiss Franc (CHF) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) as traders seek refuge from the intensifying market turmoil caused by US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs and fears of a global recession.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CHF trades in negative territory for the third consecutive day around 0.8435 in Wednesday’s early European session. Rising risk aversion amid tariff turmoil boosts the Swiss Franc, a safe haven currency. US trade tariffs potentially push the SNB closer to negative interest rates with inflation near zero.The USD/CHF pair extends its downside to near 0.8435 during the early European session. The Swiss Franc (CHF) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) as traders seek refuge from the intensifying market turmoil caused by US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs and fears of a global recession.Worries about the economic slowdown and potential recession in the United States exert some selling pressure on the Greenback as markets return to pricing in more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. The markets have priced in a nearly 65% chance of a Fed cut in May, and futures now point to about 100 basis points (bps) worth of rate reductions by December, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Late Tuesday, US Customs and Border Protection said that it is prepared to begin collecting country-specific tariffs from 86 US trade partners. Trump noted that he wasn’t considering a pause on his plan to implement sweeping additional tariffs on dozens of countries despite contact from trade partners seeking to avoid the levies but hinted he would be open to some negotiations. The uncertainty surrounding trade policy and fears of global recession by Trump’s policy could boost the CHF, a safe-haven currency. Trump shocked world markets by announcing reciprocal tariffs for most of the global economy and imposed heavier tariffs for Switzerland than its neighbors in the European Union or Britain. This prompted economists to trim forecasts for Swiss economic growth and expect that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will again cut the interest rates. Markets are currently leaning towards another 25 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Swiss central bank, according to LSEG data. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
09:44 China to convene a high-level meeting in response to US tariffs
Citing people with knowledge of the matter, Reuters reported on Wednesday that senior officials from China’s State Council, several government and regulatory bodies plan to hold a meeting as early as Wednesday in response to US President Donald Trump’s 104% tariffs on Chinese goods.
Citing people with knowledge of the matter, Reuters reported on Wednesday that senior officials from China’s State Council, several government and regulatory bodies plan to hold a meeting as early as Wednesday in response to US President Donald Trump’s 104% tariffs on Chinese goods.The policymakers were set to discuss measures to boost domestic consumption and support capital markets, according to sources.One of the sources added that initiatives such as export tax rebates were also likely to be discussed.
09:30 BoJ’s Ueda: Will continue to raise rates if economy keeps improving in line with outlook
Ahead of his meeting with the Japanese Financial Services Agency (FSA) and Ministry of Finance (MoF) on Wednesday, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the central bank “will continue to raise rates if the economy keeps improving in line with the outlook.”
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
Ahead of his meeting with the Japanese Financial Services Agency (FSA) and Ministry of Finance (MoF) on Wednesday, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the central bank “will continue to raise rates if the economy keeps improving in line with the outlook.”Additional quotesWill take appropriate policy decision by examining domestic, overseas risks.That includes economic, price developments and markets including US trade policy impact.Japan's economy is recovery moderately albeit with some weak signs.Must be vigilant to fact uncertainty over each country's trade policy outlook heightening.Underlying inflation below 2% now but gradually accelerating.Market reactionUSD/JPY has staged a decent comeback from near 144.60 levels to now trade at 145.40, still down 0.56% on the day. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
08:49 French Minister Haddad: Hopes for talks with US over tariffs
France's European Affairs Minister Benjamin Haddad reaffirmed on Wednesday, he has hopes for talks with United States (US) over tariffs.
France's European Affairs Minister Benjamin Haddad reaffirmed on Wednesday, he has hopes for talks with United States (US) over tariffs.Additional commentsThe European Union (EU) must show a united front on this. Europe must show it can react and inflict damage on the american economy, regardthe tariffiffs situation.
08:45 USD/CAD finds some support near 1.4200 mark as Oil prices plunge to fresh multi-year low
The USD/CAD pair continues with its struggle to move back above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Wednesday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD meets with a fresh supply on Wednesday, though it lacks follow-through.Bet for multiple Fed rate cuts in 2025 weigh on the USD and drag spot prices lower.Tumbling Crude Oil prices and domestic political uncertainty weigh on the Loonie.The USD/CAD pair continues with its struggle to move back above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices, however, rebound a few pips from the 1.4200 neighborhood and remain confined in a broader trading range held since the beginning of this week amid mixed cues.Crude Oil prices sink to a fresh multi-year low on the back of worries that US President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs and the escalating US-China trade war would push the global economy into recession, which, in turn, could weaken fuel demand. Apart from this, the risk of a further escalation of US-Canada trade tensions, along with political uncertainty ahead of the Canadian snap election on April 28, undermines the commodity-linked Loonie and acts as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, investors ramped up their bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates multiple times this year amid persistent worries about a tariffs-driven US economic slowdown. This prompts some follow-through US Dollar (USD) selling for the second straight day and should keep a lid on any meaningful upside for the USD/CAD pair. Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bets and opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting minutes later today.Furthermore, investors this week will confront the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday and Friday, respectively. The crucial data should provide cues about the pace of future interest rate cuts by the Fed, which, in turn, will drive the USD and provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/CAD pair. In the meantime, trade-related developments and Oil price dynamics might produce short-term trading opportunities around the currency pair. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
08:35 India Gold price today: Gold jumps as Trump's 104% tariffs on China kick in
US President Donald Trump's global reciprocal kick in on Wednesday, fuelling a fresh risk-aversion wave across the financial markets, spiking up the demand for the traditional safe haven Gold.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
US President Donald Trump's global reciprocal kick in on Wednesday, fuelling a fresh risk-aversion wave across the financial markets, spiking up the demand for the traditional safe haven Gold. China is hit hardest with 104% tariffs by the US, heighening US-Sino trade tensions.
Against this backdtop, Gold price in India tracked its Comex peer higher on Wednesday.
At the press time, Gold price is advancing to 8,397.62 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, following Tuesday's close of INR 8,301.88, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
Gold price is trading at INR 97,944.14 per tola versus INR 96,831.53 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,397.62 10 Grams 83,972.23 Tola 97,944.14 Troy Ounce 261,194.40
Global Market Movers: Gold price is underpinned by US tariffs-inspired global flight to safety The White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that the US will proceed with a sweeping 104% tariff on Chinese imports starting this Wednesday. This continues to fuel worries that an all-out trade war would push the global economy into recession, which triggers a fresh wave of the risk-aversion trade and revives demand for the safe-haven Gold price. Investors ramped up their bets that a tariffs-driven US economic slowdown could force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume its rate-cutting cycle soon. In fact, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool suggests that traders are pricing in over a 60% chance that the Fed will lower borrowing costs in May. Moreover, the US central bank is expected to deliver five rate cuts in 2025. This, in turn, drags the US Dollar lower for the second straight day despite the overnight hawkish comments from Fed officials. In fact, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Tuesday that the policy is in a very good place and modestly restrictive. Daly further noted that inflation pressure from widespread tariffs is an increasing concern. Separately, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that US tariffs are way bigger than anticipated and pose a real risk to US importers who have very few fallback options. The relationship of sentiment to spending isn't as strong as before and It's not obvious how the Fed would react to negative supply shock, Goolsbee added further. Investors now look forward to the release of minutes from the Fed's last policy meeting. Apart from this, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday and Friday, respectively, will be scrutinized for cues about the Fed's policy path. This, in turn, will drive the USD in the near term and influence the XAU/USD pair. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold?
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold?
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets?
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on?
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
08:30 EUR/JPY trades near 160.40 after recovering daily losses, eyes on MOF, FSA, BoJ’s meeting
EUR/JPY recovers its daily losses, trading near the 160.50 during Asian trading hours on Wednesday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/JPY recovers losses ahead of a meeting between Japan’s MOF, FSA, and the BoJ to discuss global financial market developments.The JPY finds support from rising safe-haven demand, driven by escalating fears of a global recession amid intensifying tariff tensions.The euro remains under pressure as markets increasingly price in a more dovish stance from the European Central Bank.EUR/JPY recovers its daily losses, trading near the 160.50 during Asian trading hours on Wednesday. However, the currency cross faced challenges as the Japanese Yen strengthened ahead of a key meeting between Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MOF), Financial Services Agency (FSA), and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to discuss international financial markets. A joint statement is expected following the meeting, though it’s likely to be light on actionable insights.The JPY also found support amid increased safe-haven demand, fueled by growing fears of a global recession triggered by tariff tensions. Adding to the Yen’s appeal, US President Donald Trump has agreed to meet with Japanese officials to initiate trade negotiations, bolstering hopes for a potential US-Japan trade agreement. This optimism further supports the JPY. Additionally, expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates in 2025—driven by persistent domestic inflation—provide further upward pressure on the Yen.The Euro (EUR) faced headwinds amid rising risk sentiment following the implementation of US retaliatory tariffs on Wednesday. The EUR also remains under pressure as market participants ramp up dovish expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB).Several ECB policymakers—including Bank of Italy Governor Piero Cipollone, Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau, and Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras—have expressed support for further monetary easing.Finance ministers from Eurozone countries are set to convene in Warsaw on Friday to discuss strategies to mitigate the impact of US-imposed tariffs. Governor Stournaras recently stated that the new tariffs would not hinder an April rate cut, asserting that inflation projections remain unchanged. Stournaras estimated that the tariffs could reduce Eurozone GDP growth by 0.3%–0.4% in the first year.Poland’s Finance Minister Andrzej Domański warned of broader implications, noting that disrupted supply chains and rising corporate costs could weaken European growth and pressure regional currencies. Domański emphasized the potential for “adverse social consequences” and higher consumer prices, citing a Reuters report. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
08:19 EUR/USD attracts some buyers above 1.1050, FOMC Minutes in focus
The EUR/USD pair rises to near 1.1065 during the early European session on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Euro (EUR) after US President Donald Trump's tariff policy takes effect.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD gains traction to around 1.1065 in Wednesday’s early European session. Trump’s new reciprocal tariffs took effect on Wednesday. ECB is expected to cut rates in April and June as tariffs threaten recession. The EUR/USD pair rises to near 1.1065 during the early European session on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Euro (EUR) after US President Donald Trump's tariff policy takes effect. Later on Wednesday, traders will take more cues from the release of the FOMC Minutes. Also, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Thomas Barkin is set to speak on the same day. A new round of steep tariffs imposed by Trump took effect on Wednesday morning on products imported from scores of countries around the world. Overall, imports from 86 nations face tariff increases ranging from 11% to 84%. The escalating global trade tensions and fears of a recession triggered by Trump’s tariff policy drag the USD lower and create a tailwind for EUR/USD. Across the pond, the rising bets that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut borrowing costs next week and again in June as Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs risk pushing the bloc into recession might cap the upside for the shared currency. Investors are now pricing in a nearly 90% odds of a quarter-point cut in interest rates at the next ECB rate-setting meeting on April 17, according to Bloomberg data, up from 70% before. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
08:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index below forecasts (34.7) in March: Actual (34.1)
Japan Consumer Confidence Index below forecasts (34.7) in March: Actual (34.1)
07:45 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Rebounds from sub-0.5500 levels/multi-year low; not out of the woods yet
The NZD/USD pair stages a modest recovery from levels below the 0.5500 psychological mark, or the lowest since March 2020 touched earlier this Thursday after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced its policy decision.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD reverses an intraday slide to a multi-year low after the RBNZ’s rate decision.Bets for multiple Fed rate cuts undermine the USD and offer some support to the pair. The setup favors bears and warrants some caution before positioning for further gains.The NZD/USD pair stages a modest recovery from levels below the 0.5500 psychological mark, or the lowest since March 2020 touched earlier this Thursday after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced its policy decision. The intraday move up, however, lacks follow-through, with spot prices currently trading around the 0.5535-0.5540 region or nearly unchanged for the day. The escalating US-China trade war, along with worries about the potential global economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, continues to weigh on investors; sentiment. This, in turn, keeps a lid on the perceived riskier New Zealand Dollar (NZD). The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, attracts sellers for the second straight day amid bets for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and offers some support to the NZD/USD pair. From a technical perspective, the recent breakdown below the 0.5575-0.5580 horizontal support was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in negative territory and are still away from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the NZD/USD pair is to the downside and that any subsequent move up might still be seen as a selling opportunity near the said support breakpoint.However, some follow-through buying, leading to a subsequent move beyond the 0.5600 mark, might prompt a short-covering rally. The momentum might then lift spot prices beyond the 0.5640-0.5645 intermediate hurdle and allow bulls to reclaim the 0.5700 mark. The subsequent move up would shift the bias in favor of bullish traders and pave the way for a further near-term appreciating move.On the flip side, the 0.5500 mark, followed by the 0.5485 region, or the multi-year low, now seems to protect the immediate downside. A sustained break below would set the stage for an extension of the recent sharp downfall from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) barrier, around the 0.5850-0.5855 region, or the year-to-date touched earlier this month. The NZD/USD pair might then accelerate the fall further towards the 0.5400 round-figure mark. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
07:35 India Reverse Repo Rate: 3.35%
India Reverse Repo Rate: 3.35%
07:34 India RBI Interest Rate Decision (Repo Rate) meets expectations (6%)
India RBI Interest Rate Decision (Repo Rate) meets expectations (6%)
07:05 Gold price jumps back above $3,000 amid trade war threat to global growth
Gold price (XAU/USD) regains positive traction following the previous day's failed attempt to surpass the $3,022-3,023 hurdle and retakes the $3,000 psychological mark during the Asian session on Wednesday.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}Gold price catches fresh bids on rising global trade tensions and recession fears.Bets for multiple Fed rate cuts weigh on the USD and support the precious metal.Rising US bond yields could act as a headwind ahead of FOMC meeting minutes. Gold price (XAU/USD) regains positive traction following the previous day's failed attempt to surpass the $3,022-3,023 hurdle and retakes the $3,000 psychological mark during the Asian session on Wednesday. Persistent worries about escalating trade tensions and fears of a recession continue to prompt investors to take refuge in the traditional safe-haven bullion. Apart from this, bets for multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year and some follow-through US Dollar (USD) selling for the second straight day turn out to be key factors that underpin the non-yielding yellow metal. Meanwhile, speculation that China is dumping US Treasuries in retaliation to the sweeping US tariffs led to an extended selloff in US government bonds. This might hold back traders from placing fresh bullish bets around the Gold price and cap any further gains ahead of the release of FOMC meeting minutes later this Wednesday. Investors this week will further take cues from the US inflation figures for cues about the Fed's rate-cut path, which would influence the XAU/USD. This warrants caution before confirming that the commodity's recent pullback from the all-time peak has run its course. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price attracts fresh buyers as trade jitters underpin safe-haven demandThe White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that the US will proceed with a sweeping 104% tariff on Chinese imports starting this Wednesday. This continues to fuel worries that an all-out trade war would push the global economy into recession, which triggers a fresh wave of the risk-aversion trade and revives demand for the safe-haven Gold price. Investors ramped up their bets that a tariffs-driven US economic slowdown could force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume its rate-cutting cycle soon. In fact, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool suggests that traders are pricing in over a 60% chance that the Fed will lower borrowing costs in May. Moreover, the US central bank is expected to deliver five rate cuts in 2025.This, in turn, drags the US Dollar lower for the second straight day despite the overnight hawkish comments from Fed officials. In fact, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Tuesday that the policy is in a very good place and modestly restrictive. Daly further noted that inflation pressure from widespread tariffs is an increasing concern. Separately, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that US tariffs are way bigger than anticipated and pose a real risk to US importers who have very few fallback options. The relationship of sentiment to spending isn't as strong as before and It's not obvious how the Fed would react to negative supply shock, Goolsbee added further. Investors now look forward to the release of minutes from the Fed's last policy meeting. Apart from this, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday and Friday, respectively, will be scrutinized for cues about the Fed's policy path. This, in turn, will drive the USD in the near term and influence the XAU/USD pair. Gold price needs to surpass the $3,022-3,023 immediate hurdle to back prospects for any further gainsFrom a technical perspective, the recent sharp decline from the record high stalled near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the February-April move-up. The said support is pegged near the $2,957-2,956 area, or a multi-week low touched on Monday and is closely followed by the 50-day SMA, currently around the $2,952 region. A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and drag the Gold price to the next relevant support near the $2,920 horizontal zone en route to the $2,900 round figure. On the flip side, momentum beyond the overnight swing high, around the $3,023 area, could push the Gold price to the $3,055-3,056 barrier. Some follow-through buying should pave the way for a move towards reclaiming the $3,100 mark, with some intermediate hurdle near the $3,075-3.080 region. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.66% -0.47% -0.77% -0.15% -0.14% 0.20% -0.52% EUR 0.66% 0.18% -0.16% 0.48% 0.58% 0.85% 0.12% GBP 0.47% -0.18% -0.32% 0.31% 0.40% 0.67% -0.05% JPY 0.77% 0.16% 0.32% 0.61% 0.73% 0.99% 0.26% CAD 0.15% -0.48% -0.31% -0.61% 0.19% 0.36% -0.36% AUD 0.14% -0.58% -0.40% -0.73% -0.19% 0.27% -0.45% NZD -0.20% -0.85% -0.67% -0.99% -0.36% -0.27% -0.72% CHF 0.52% -0.12% 0.05% -0.26% 0.36% 0.45% 0.72% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
06:53 GBP/USD appreciates to near 1.2850 due to easing trade tensions after Trump's comments
The GBP/USD pair advances for a second straight session, trading near 1.2820 during Asian hours on Wednesday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD edged higher after US President Donald Trump signaled a willingness to engage in trade negotiations.US Customs and Border Protection confirmed plans to start collecting country-specific tariffs from 86 trade partners.The British Pound found support from stronger as the 10-year gilt yield rose to around 4.61%.The GBP/USD pair advances for a second straight session, trading near 1.2820 during Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair’s uptick is supported by easing trade tensions after US President Donald Trump signaled openness to negotiations with global partners, fueling hopes of a potential de-escalation in trade conflicts.US Customs and Border Protection confirmed on Tuesday that it is prepared to begin collecting country-specific tariffs from 86 trade partners. While President Trump maintained his broader tariff plans despite requests for exemptions, he indicated a willingness to engage in discussions.Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasized a data-driven approach to monetary policy decisions. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are increasingly pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut as early as May, though a July cut remains the base case. Traders anticipate over 100 basis points in rate reductions by year-end.The Pound Sterling (GBP) also drew support from rising UK gilt yields, with the 10-year yield climbing to around 4.61% at the time of writing. Investors grew cautiously optimistic that some US tariffs may be negotiated, following comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that around 70 countries—including Japan—have approached Washington for talks.The UK economy may weather the impact better than others, given its relatively modest 10% tariff exposure. UK firms could benefit if US buyers seek alternative suppliers to avoid elevated costs. The UK government estimates the direct GDP impact will be under 0.1%.Meanwhile, expectations for Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts are rising. Following the tariff developments, markets are fully pricing in a May rate cut—up from 50% prior—and foresee three cuts by the end of 2025. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
05:48 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds above $29.50 amid tariff uncertainty
The Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers some lost ground to around $29.85 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. Analysts believe the recent correction could be a setup for a strong rebound amid rising trade tensions and recession fears.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver price drifts higher to near $29.85 in Wednesday’s Asian session.Trump’s tariff uncertainty and fears of global recession boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Silver price. The FOMC Meeting Minutes Will take center stage later on Wednesday.The Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers some lost ground to around $29.85 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. Analysts believe the recent correction could be a setup for a strong rebound amid rising trade tensions and recession fears. Traders brace for the FOMC Minutes, which are due later on Wednesday. US President Donald Trump said late Tuesday that he wasn’t considering a pause on his plan to impose sweeping additional tariffs on dozens of countries despite contact from trade partners seeking to avoid the levies. However, he hinted that he could be open to some negotiations.Trump's remarks came after his top officials sent signals about the administration's willingness to engage with trade partners, with a 10% tariff already in place and targeted retaliatory import tariffs scheduled for Wednesday. This uncertainty has spurred global market volatility and boosted the safe-haven demand, supporting the Silver price. Additionally, industrial demand, especially from new-age industries like EVs and solar energy, provides some support to the white metal. Gains are also expected in the consumer electronics market, as the development of artificial intelligence systems will continue to boost product offerings. Traders will keep an eye on the FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday. This report could offer insight into the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) stance on monetary policy. Any hawkish remarks from the Fed officials could lift the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.
Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Traders will keep an eye on the FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday. This report could offer insight into the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) stance on monetary policy. Any hawkish remarks from the Fed officials could lift the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.
Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Traders will keep an eye on the FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday. This report could offer insight into the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) stance on monetary policy. Any hawkish remarks from the Fed officials could lift the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.
05:46 Japanese Yen strengthens further as recession fears boost safe-haven demand
The Japanese Yen (JPY) buying remains unabated for the second straight day on Wednesday as investors continue to take refuge in the traditional safe-haven currency amid concerns about a tariffs-driven global recession.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Japanese Yen continues to benefit from US tariffs-inspired global flight to safety.Hopes for a US-Japan trade deal further underpin the JPY amid sustained USD selling.The divergent BoJ-Fed expectations support prospects for deeper USD/JPY losses.The Japanese Yen (JPY) buying remains unabated for the second straight day on Wednesday as investors continue to take refuge in the traditional safe-haven currency amid concerns about a tariffs-driven global recession. Moreover, reports that US President Donald Trump has agreed to meet Japanese officials to initiate trade discussions following a phone call with Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba fuel optimism about a possible US-Japan trade deal. This, along with expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates on the back of broadening domestic inflation, also underpins the JPY. Meanwhile, hawkish BoJ expectations mark a big divergence in comparison to rising bets for more aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This, in turn, would result in the further narrowing of the rate differential between Japan and the US, which, in turn, is seen as another factor driving flows towards the lower-yielding JPY. Apart from this, the prevalent US Dollar (USD) selling bias drags the USD/JPY pair closer to the 145.00 psychological mark during the Asian session. Traders now look to FOMC meeting minutes for some impetus ahead of US consumer inflation figures on Thursday. Japanese Yen bulls retain control amid rising global trade tensions, BoJ rate hike betsMounting worries that US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs would push the US, and possibly the global economy, into recession this year have led to an extended sell-off in equity markets worldwide. In fact, the S&P 500 registered its steepest four days of losses since the 1950s after Trump unveiled sweeping reciprocal tariffs late last Wednesday.Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Trump agreed to keep dialogue open to address the pressing levy issues. Moreover, Trump told reporters that we have a great relationship with Japan and we're going to keep it that way. This fuels optimism about a possible US-Japan trade deal, which lends additional support to the safe-haven Japanese Yen. Investors have pared their bets that the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates at a faster pace amid concerns about the potential economic fallout from Trump's trade tariffs. However, BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said last Friday the central bank will keep raising interest rates if the chance of underlying inflation achieving its 2% target heightens.Meanwhile, investors now seem convinced that a tariffs-driven US economic slowdown would put pressure on the Federal Reserve to resume its rate-cutting cycle. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the markets are currently pricing in over a 60% chance that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs at the next policy meeting in May.Moreover, the Fed is expected to deliver five interest rate cuts by the end of this year despite expectations that Trump's tariffs will boost inflation. This, in turn, weighs on the US Dollar for the second straight day and keeps the USD/JPY pair within striking distance of its lowest level since October 2024 touched last Friday.Traders now look forward to the release of FOMC meeting minutes, due later during the US session this Wednesday. Apart from this, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday and Friday, respectively, might provide cues about the Fed’s rate-cut path. This, in turn, will drive the buck and USD/JPY. USD/JPY seems vulnerable to retesting a multi-month low, around the 144.55 regionFrom a technical perspective, this week's failure to find acceptance above the 148.00 mark and the subsequent fall favors bearish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in negative territory and are still away from being in the oversold zone, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair is to the downside. Some follow-through selling below the 145.00 psychological mark will reaffirm the negative outlook and expose the year-to-date low, around the 144.55 region touched on Monday, before spot prices eventually drop to the 144.00 round figure.On the flip side, the 146.00 mark now seems to keep a lid on any attempted recovery. This is followed by the Asian session high, around the 146.35 region, above which a bout of a short-covering could lift the USD/JPY pair to the 147.00 round figure en route to the 147.40-147.45 area. The subsequent move-up should allow bulls to reclaim the 148.00 mark and test the weekly top, around the 148.15 zone. A sustained strength beyond the latter might shift the near-term bias in favor of bullish traders and pave the way for some meaningful appreciating move. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
05:27 NZD/USD rises to near 0.5550 following RBNZ interest rate decision
The NZD/USD pair edges higher after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps), in line with market expectations.
.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD edges higher after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, as widely expected.The rate cut reflects the RBNZ’s response to easing inflation, slowing growth, and emerging signs of labor market strain.The US Dollar faced challenges after Trump signaled a willingness to engage in trade negotiations.The NZD/USD pair edges higher after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps), in line with market expectations. The pair is trading around 0.5540 during Wednesday’s Asian session. The central bank’s decision comes amid softening inflation, slowing economic growth, and early signs of labor market weakness. There is growing speculation that intensifying global trade tensions could prompt a deeper 50 bps cut, with markets pricing in the potential for up to 100 bps of additional easing in 2025.
The NZD/USD pair also found support following comments from US President Donald Trump, who expressed openness to negotiations with trade partners—sparking hopes for a potential de-escalation in global trade disputes. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that nearly 70 countries have reached out to the White House to discuss tariffs.
However, persistent US- China trade tensions continue to weigh on sentiment, particularly given New Zealand’s strong trade ties with China. Trump recently threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports unless Beijing lowers its duties on US goods. In response, China condemned the move as "blackmail" and pledged to defend its economic interests.
Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to around 4.37%, signaling stronger investor demand for returns amid the uncertainty surrounding global trade dynamics.
Looking ahead, traders will closely monitor this week’s US inflation data, which could significantly shape the outlook for future rate cuts. Additionally, attention will turn to the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes later on Wednesday for further insight into the Federal Reserve's policy stance.
Economic Indicator
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD. Read more. Last release: Wed Apr 09, 2025 02:00 Frequency: IrregularActual: 3.5%Consensus: 3.5%Previous: 3.75%Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Why it matters to traders?
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by Governor Adrian Orr’s press conference.
05:15 AUD/NZD sticks to intraday gains around 1.0800 after RBNZ’s expected 25 bps rate cut
The AUD/NZD cross regains positive traction during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it struggles to capitalize on the move and remains confined in the previous day's broader range.
.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/NZD attracts fresh buyers following the previous day’s two-way price swings.The intraday uptick lacks follow-through amid the escalating US-China trade war.The RBNZ cuts its key policy rates by 25 bps, though it does little to provide impetus.The AUD/NZD cross regains positive traction during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it struggles to capitalize on the move and remains confined in the previous day's broader range. Spot prices retreat a few pips after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced its policy decision and currently trade around the 1.0800 mark. As was widely expected, the RBNZ delivered a 25 basis point (bps) cut to the Official Cash Rate (OCR), bringing it down to 3.50% following the April monetary policy meeting. The market reaction, however, seems muted as the decision to lower the key policy rate for the fifth consecutive time was fully priced in. Hence, investors will closely scrutinize the language in the RBNZ’s policy statement for fresh insights on future rate cuts, which could significantly impact the performance of the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and the AUD/NZD cross. Meanwhile, a further escalation of the US-China trade war holds back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the Australian Dollar (AUD) and caps the upside for spot prices. In fact, the White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed on Tuesday that the US will proceed with a sweeping 104% tariff on Chinese imports starting today. This warrants some caution before confirming that the AUD/NZD cross has bottomed out and positioning for any recovery from over a one-year low, around the 1.0700 mark touched on Monday. Economic Indicator RBNZ Interest Rate Decision The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD. Read more. Last release: Wed Apr 09, 2025 02:00 Frequency: Irregular Actual: 3.5% Consensus: 3.5% Previous: 3.75% Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Why it matters to traders? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by Governor Adrian Orr’s press conference.
05:12 USD/INR holds steady ahead of RBI rate decision
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades flat on Wednesday after reaching the largest single-day loss in nearly three months in the previous session. The local currency remains under pressure amid a looming global trade war stoking fears of economic meltdown.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Indian Rupee flatlines in Wednesday’s Asian session. An escalating global trade war and potential US recession undermine the INR. The RBI interest rate decision and FOMC Minutes will take center stage later on Wednesday. The Indian Rupee (INR) trades flat on Wednesday after reaching the largest single-day loss in nearly three months in the previous session. The local currency remains under pressure amid a looming global trade war stoking fears of economic meltdown. Furthermore, continued foreign capital outflows and US Dollar (USD) buying from importers, foreign investors and oil companies weigh on the Indian currency.Nonetheless, a fall in crude oil prices might help limit the INR’s losses. It’s worth noting that India is the world's third-largest oil consumer, and lower crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the Indian currency value.Traders will closely monitor the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) interest rate decision later on Wednesday. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 6.0%. On the US docket, the FOMC Minutes will be in the highlight later on the same day. Also, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Thomas Barkin is scheduled to speak. Indian Rupee seems vulnerable amid Trump tariff turmoil“The rupee experienced a decline in value against the US dollar, primarily driven by strong demand for dollars from importers and ongoing outflows of foreign funds from Indian equity markets,” forex traders said.Pranjul Bhandari, HSBC’s Chief India Economist, expects consecutive interest rate cuts from the RBI at the central bank’s April, June and August meetings.US Customs and Border Protection said on Tuesday that it is prepared to begin collecting country-specific tariffs from 86 US trade partners. Trump noted that he wasn’t considering a pause on his plan to implement sweeping additional tariffs on dozens of countries despite contact from trade partners seeking to avoid the levies, but hinted he would be open to some negotiations.San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Tuesday that there's no rush to cut interest rates as the economy and the labor market are still solid and a lot is still unclear about the size and scope of Trump's tariffs. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that Trump's tariffs are "way bigger" than had been modeled, and it's unclear how quickly or fully those higher costs will be passed on to consumers. USD/INR resumes recovery above the 100-day EMAThe Indian Rupee trades on a flat note on the day. The USD/INR pair resumes its uptrend on the daily chart, with the price crossing above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, further consolidation cannot be ruled out in the near term as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the midline. The immediate resistance level for USD/INR is located at the pullback of 86.48. Sustained upside momentum could take the pair to the next bullish target at the 87.00 psychological level. The next hurdle is seen at 87.53, the high of February 28. On the downside, the first downside target to watch is 85.42, the low of March 31. Further south, the next contention level emerges at 85.20, the low of April 3, followed by 85.00, the round mark. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
05:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (3.5%)
New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (3.5%)
04:52 Australian Dollar appreciates amid potential easing of global trade tensions
The Australian Dollar (AUD) halts its three-day losing streak against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, supported by comments from US President Donald Trump suggesting a willingness to negotiate with trade partners.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar edges higher following comments from US President Donald Trump, signaling openness to trade negotiations.The AUD remains vulnerable as Trump threatened a further 50% tariff on Chinese imports, raising concerns over trade tensions.The US Dollar may find support as a higher 10-year Treasury yield reflects stronger investor demand for higher returns.The Australian Dollar (AUD) halts its three-day losing streak against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, supported by comments from US President Donald Trump suggesting a willingness to negotiate with trade partners. Trump’s remarks boosted optimism for a potential easing of global trade tensions.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revealed that nearly 70 countries have reached out to the White House seeking to negotiate tariffs. Despite this, market volatility is expected to remain elevated after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports if Beijing does not reduce its duties on US goods.
The AUD remained under pressure amid persistent US-China trade tensions, particularly as Australia maintains strong economic ties with China. Beijing denounced Trump’s latest threat as “blackmail” and vowed to safeguard its interests.
Australia’s economic outlook remains fragile, with both business and consumer confidence subdued. The soft data has reinforced expectations of a more dovish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), with markets now pricing in up to 100 basis points in rate cuts this year—starting in May, with further reductions likely in July and August.
Australian Dollar could struggle as escalating trade tensions fuel rising uncertainty The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against a basket of six major currencies, depreciates below 102.50. However, the downside appears limited as the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.36% at the time of writing. The rise in yields reflects heightened investor demand for returns amid growing uncertainty fueled by escalating global trade tensions. Traders will likely watch this week’s inflation data, which is expected to heavily influence the outlook for interest rate cuts in the coming months. Additionally, investors await the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes later on Wednesday for further policy clues. On Tuesday, US Customs and Border Protection announced readiness to begin collecting country-specific tariffs from 86 trade partners. President Trump stated he was not considering pausing his broad tariff plans despite outreach from several countries seeking exemptions, although he signaled some openness to negotiations. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stressed the importance of thoroughly evaluating economic data before deciding on future monetary policy steps. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are increasingly betting on a 25-basis-point rate cut as early as May. Nonetheless, the broader market continues to view a July cut as more likely, with expectations for total rate reductions exceeding 100 basis points by year-end. In Australia, consumer sentiment weakened notably, with the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index falling 6% in April after a 4% gain in March—the first decline since January. Australia’s business sentiment also softened as the NAB Business Confidence Index slipped to -3 in March from a revised -2, its lowest reading since November. Business conditions remained relatively steady but slightly below average, improving modestly from 3 to 4.
Australian Dollar rebounds from lowest level since March 2020 near 0.5900 region
The AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.5980 on Wednesday, with technical indicators on the daily chart pointing to a sustained bearish bias, as the pair remains below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits below 30, suggesting the potential for a short-term corrective rebound.
Immediate support is seen at the descending trendline near 0.5914—marking the lowest level since March 2020.
On the upside, initial resistance lies at the nine-day EMA around 0.6113, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6259. A stronger recovery could be seen in the pair testing the four-month high at 0.6408.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
Australian Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.62% -0.53% -0.51% -0.33% -0.62% -0.02% -0.41% EUR 0.62% 0.09% 0.11% 0.26% 0.04% 0.59% 0.20% GBP 0.53% -0.09% 0.04% 0.18% -0.05% 0.50% 0.12% JPY 0.51% -0.11% -0.04% 0.13% -0.07% 0.46% 0.07% CAD 0.33% -0.26% -0.18% -0.13% -0.13% 0.32% -0.07% AUD 0.62% -0.04% 0.05% 0.07% 0.13% 0.56% 0.16% NZD 0.02% -0.59% -0.50% -0.46% -0.32% -0.56% -0.39% CHF 0.41% -0.20% -0.12% -0.07% 0.07% -0.16% 0.39%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar?
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar?
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar?
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar?
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar?
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2066 vs. 7.2038 previous
On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.2066 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.2038 and 7.3348 Reuters estimate.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.2066 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.2038 and 7.3348 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
04:02 US President Donald Trump says China is manipulating Yuan to offset against tariffs
US President Donald Trump said late Tuesday that China is manipulating the Chinese Yuan to offset against tariffs.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
US President Donald Trump said late Tuesday that China is manipulating the Chinese Yuan to offset against tariffs. Key quotesSays we're going to tariff pharmaceuticals
China pays a 104% tariff.
Always had a very good relationship with China's Xi
More tariffs on China will be in place tonight.
Expects China to reach an agreement eventually.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading 0.04% higher on the day to trade at 0.5960. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
China pays a 104% tariff.
Always had a very good relationship with China's Xi
More tariffs on China will be in place tonight.
Expects China to reach an agreement eventually.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading 0.04% higher on the day to trade at 0.5960. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
03:51 Japan's Kato says will not sell US Treasury holdings just from standpoint of US-Japan relations
Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said early Wednesday that there is no preset standard on what is the appropriate size of Japan’s foreign reserves, adding that Japan will not sell US Treasury holdings just from the standpoint of US-Japan relations.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said early Wednesday that there is no preset standard on what is the appropriate size of Japan’s foreign reserves, adding that Japan will not sell US Treasury holdings just from the standpoint of US-Japan relations.Key quotesThere is no preset standard on what is the appropriate size of Japan’s foreign reserves.
Don’t think the size of Japan’s foreign reserves is too big.
We hold foreign reserves in case we need to conduct FX intervention.
Won’t sell US Treasury holdings just from the standpoint of US-Japan relations. Market reactionAt the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 0.75% lower on the day to trade at 145.18. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Don’t think the size of Japan’s foreign reserves is too big.
We hold foreign reserves in case we need to conduct FX intervention.
Won’t sell US Treasury holdings just from the standpoint of US-Japan relations. Market reactionAt the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 0.75% lower on the day to trade at 145.18. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
03:39 BoJ’s Ueda: Uncertainties have increased domestically and internationally
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said early Wednesday that the uncertainty surrounding both domestic and overseas economies is increasing due to US tariffs. Ueda further stated that the Japanese central bank will closely monitor developments.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said early Wednesday that the uncertainty surrounding both domestic and overseas economies is increasing due to US tariffs. Ueda further stated that the Japanese central bank will closely monitor developments.Key quotesLow rates persist as inflation strengthens, too accommodative.
Uncertainties have increased domestically and internationally.
Uncertainties regarding the forecast of tariffs.
Will carefully monitor the effects of tariffs.
To conduct policy appropriately by monitoring tariffs.
To make appropriate judgments in line with outlook,
To continue coordinating closely with government.
To monitor prices, economy, financial markets.
Market reactionAt the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 0.56% lower on the day to trade at 145.45. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
Uncertainties have increased domestically and internationally.
Uncertainties regarding the forecast of tariffs.
Will carefully monitor the effects of tariffs.
To conduct policy appropriately by monitoring tariffs.
To make appropriate judgments in line with outlook,
To continue coordinating closely with government.
To monitor prices, economy, financial markets.
Market reactionAt the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 0.56% lower on the day to trade at 145.45. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
02:56 WTI slumps below $57.25 as escalating US-China trade tensions spark demand fears
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $57.25 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The WTI price extends the decline near a four-year low due to US President Donald Trump’s trade war rhetoric, growing recession fears in the US and weak global demand.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}WTI price tumbles to near $57.25 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.Fears of a potential US recession and an escalating trade war between the US and China weigh on the WTI price. Crude oil stockpiles in the US fell by 1.057 million barrels last week, noted API. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $57.25 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The WTI price extends the decline near a four-year low due to US President Donald Trump’s trade war rhetoric, growing recession fears in the US and weak global demand.The Trump administration will impose a 104% tariff on China beginning at 04.01 GMT on Wednesday, adding 50% more to tariffs after Beijing failed to lift its retaliatory tariffs on US goods by a noon deadline on Tuesday set by Trump. Beijing vowed not to bow to what it called US blackmail after Trump threatened the additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods if the country did not lift its 34% retaliatory tariff.China's Commerce Ministry said the country would fight to the end, raising concerns about a global economic downturn. This, in turn, exerts some selling pressure on the WTI price. A surprise output increase by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) contributes to the WTI’s downside. OPEC+ announced plans to increase output, aiming to return 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) to the market in May, up from the previously planned 135,000 bpd. The decline in crude oil inventories might provide some support to the crude oil prices. The American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly report showed crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending April 4 fell by 1.057 million barrels, compared to an increase of 6.037 million barrels in the previous week. So far this year, crude oil inventories have climbed nearly 22 million barrels. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
02:54 EUR/USD fights off bearish flows, but tariffs and cautionary Fed remain
EUR/USD caught a mild bullish recovery on Tuesday, snapping a two-day losing streak and chalking in some last-minute gains before the Trump administration’s widespread “reciprocal” tariffs come into effect on April 9.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD clawed back ground on Tuesday, but remains below 1.1000.European data takes a backseat as markets focus on rate cut bets and trade policy fallout.Key data coming up later this week includes US inflation and consumer sentiment figures.EUR/USD caught a mild bullish recovery on Tuesday, snapping a two-day losing streak and chalking in some last-minute gains before the Trump administration’s widespread “reciprocal” tariffs come into effect on April 9. Fedspeak from key policymakers is beginning to clash with rising market expectations of Fed rate cuts through the rest of 2025, putting markets on a collision course with the negative impacts of far-reaching tariffs.Forex Today: Markets’ attention shifts to the Fed MinutesOverall, the European economic data calendar is light this week, and Tuesday provided a refreshing break from the usual barrage of geopolitical and trade news typical of recent weeks under the Trump administration. However, several important Federal Reserve (Fed) officials seized the moment to remind us that uncertainty and the adverse inflationary effects of US tariffs will complicate, not facilitate, the Fed's process of cutting rates. Fed rate cut hopes continue to riseUnfazed by this, rate traders are increasingly betting that the Fed will feel compelled to initiate a rate-cutting cycle before the year ends, as the negative economic fallout from those same tariffs could nudge the US toward recession. Data from the CME’s FedWatch Tool indicates that rate swap traders are starting to speculate that a quarter-point rate trim might come as soon as May. Nevertheless, most participants in the rate market still deem a 25 basis point cut in July as more probable, anticipating a total reduction of 100 basis points or more by year-end. Fed's Goolsbee: Tariffs are way bigger than anticipated
Fed's Daly: I'm a little concerned inflation may pick back upConsumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data is due out on Thursday, while Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation and the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index results will be released on Friday. This will represent the final set of significant US inflation and sentiment figures from the ‘pre-tariff’ period of 2025, serving as critical benchmarks for the remainder of the year.EUR/USD price forecastEUR/USD cut off a two-day losing streak on Tuesday, marking in a near-term technical support level near 1.0900. However, bidding pressure remains thin, and a mild push from the short side could easily push Fiber back to the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) just south of 1.0700.Despite a sharp recovery by the Euro through March, a stiff resistance zone remains priced in between 1.1100 and 1.1000.EUR/USD daily chart
Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Fed's Daly: I'm a little concerned inflation may pick back upConsumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data is due out on Thursday, while Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation and the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index results will be released on Friday. This will represent the final set of significant US inflation and sentiment figures from the ‘pre-tariff’ period of 2025, serving as critical benchmarks for the remainder of the year.EUR/USD price forecastEUR/USD cut off a two-day losing streak on Tuesday, marking in a near-term technical support level near 1.0900. However, bidding pressure remains thin, and a mild push from the short side could easily push Fiber back to the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) just south of 1.0700.Despite a sharp recovery by the Euro through March, a stiff resistance zone remains priced in between 1.1100 and 1.1000.EUR/USD daily chart
Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
02:08 USD/CAD weakens to near 1.4250, FOMC Minutes in focus
The USD/CAD pair edges lower to around 1.4255 during the late American session on Tuesday. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthens against the Greenback as investors weigh the prospect of negotiations globally over US trade tariffs. The FOMC Minutes will be in the spotlight later on Wednesday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD softens to near 1.4255 in Tuesday’s late American session. Trump said there is no pause on tariffs but is open to negotiations. Investors await the release of the FOMC Minutes later on Wednesday.The USD/CAD pair edges lower to around 1.4255 during the late American session on Tuesday. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthens against the Greenback as investors weigh the prospect of negotiations globally over US trade tariffs. The FOMC Minutes will be in the spotlight later on Wednesday. Also, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Thomas Barkin is set to speak. US Customs and Border Protection said on Tuesday that it is prepared to begin collecting country-specific tariffs from 86 US trade partners. Trump noted that he wasn’t considering a pause on his plan to implement sweeping additional tariffs on dozens of countries despite contact from trade partners seeking to avoid the levies, but yet hinting he would be open to some negotiationsTrump's minimum 10% tariff on all imports to the US was introduced last week. He had also previously imposed 25% duties on goods from Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports. However, he then announced some exemptions and delays. The easing fears of trade tension between the US and Canada provide some support to the CAD. Meanwhile, a decline in Crude Oil prices could exert some selling pressure on the commodity-linked Loonie. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and lower crude oil prices tend to have a negative impact on the CAD value. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
02:00 South Korea Unemployment Rate climbed from previous 2.7% to 2.9% in March
South Korea Unemployment Rate climbed from previous 2.7% to 2.9% in March
01:56 GBP/USD catches much-needed bounce from key moving average as tariffs loom
GBP/USD snapped a harsh two-day losing streak on Tuesday, finding a technical bounce from the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) just north of the 1.2700 handle.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD caught a thin rebound from the 200-day EMA near 1.2700 on Tuesday.Markets are coiling ahead of the US’s planned tariff implementation.Risk appetite is slowly recovering, but overarching fears remain.GBP/USD snapped a harsh two-day losing streak on Tuesday, finding a technical bounce from the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) just north of the 1.2700 handle. Price action remains strung out in no man’s land ahead of the US’s planned tariff implementation, and investors are hunkering down with key US inflation and sentiment figures due later this week.Forex Today: Markets’ attention shifts to the Fed MinutesIt remains a thin week overall on the UK side of the economic data docket, and Tuesday was a welcome reprieve from the usual deluge of geopolitical and trade headlines that have become the norm from the Trump administration in recent weeks. Still, several key policymakers from the Federal Reserve (Fed) took the opportunity to come out of the woodwork, cautioning that uncertainty and unwelcome inflationary impacts from US tariffs will make it harder, not easier, for the Fed to begin cutting rates. Utterly undeterred, rate traders continue to pile into bets that the Fed will be squeezed into a rate-cutting cycle through the remainder of the year, as negative economic impacts from those exact same tariffs may push the US into a recession. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate swap traders are beginning to price in hopeful bets that a first quarter-point cut may come as early as May. However, the majority of the rate market still sees a 25 bps in July as more likely, with a total of 100 bps or more on the cards by the end of the year.Fed's Goolsbee: Tariffs are way bigger than anticipated
Fed's Daly: I'm a little concerned inflation may pick back upUS Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures are slated for Thursday, with US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation and University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index survey results are both set to publish on Friday. This will be the last blast of key US inflation and sentiment figures from the ‘pre-tariff’ phase of 2025, marking a key measurement metric for the remainder of the calendar year.GBP/USD price forecastGBP/USD caught a bullish break on Tuesday, finding a thin bounce from the 200-day EMA just above 1.2700. Bullish momentum remains borderline anemic, but bidding pressure was just enough to clip a two-day losing streak that saw Cable shed over 3% top-to-bottom.Bidders will still need to extend from the 200-day EMA before confirming a bullish recovery, but short momentum appears to have evaporated too quickly to allow fresh selling positions.GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Fed's Daly: I'm a little concerned inflation may pick back upUS Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures are slated for Thursday, with US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation and University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index survey results are both set to publish on Friday. This will be the last blast of key US inflation and sentiment figures from the ‘pre-tariff’ phase of 2025, marking a key measurement metric for the remainder of the calendar year.GBP/USD price forecastGBP/USD caught a bullish break on Tuesday, finding a thin bounce from the 200-day EMA just above 1.2700. Bullish momentum remains borderline anemic, but bidding pressure was just enough to clip a two-day losing streak that saw Cable shed over 3% top-to-bottom.Bidders will still need to extend from the 200-day EMA before confirming a bullish recovery, but short momentum appears to have evaporated too quickly to allow fresh selling positions.GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
01:12 Gold struggles below $3,000 amid rising yields and tariff jitters
Gold price snaps three days of losses, consolidates below the $3,000 figure as US Treasury yields rise, making the non-yielding metal less appealing for investors. Even though there are hopes of trade deals between partners, the “trade war” between the US and China makes investors uneasy.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold ends a three-day losing streak, constrained by rising Treasury yields and low yield appeal.VIX rises amid 104% tariffs on China and renewed recession worries; equities lose early gains.Fed’s Daly, Goolsbee caution tariffs could increase inflation; attention turns to FOMC minutes and upcoming CPI/PPI data.Gold price snaps three days of losses, consolidates below the $3,000 figure as US Treasury yields rise, making the non-yielding metal less appealing for investors. Even though there are hopes of trade deals between partners, the “trade war” between the US and China makes investors uneasy. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $2,980 a troy ounce, virtually unchanged.Sentiment shifted to negative as Wall Street registered substantial losses. Monday’s rally was short-lived as the bear market resumed, with the Volatility Index (VIX) pushing once again toward higher levels, indicating that market participants remain uncertain about the economic outlook.The White House's announcement that the US would keep 104% tariffs on China triggered a spike in the VIX. Consequently, the S&P 500, the Dow Jones, and the Nasdaq erased their earlier gains and plunged on Tuesday.Nevertheless, Gold prices tumbled as US Treasury yields spiked across the whole yield curve. The swaps market had priced in a 40% chance of a Fed rate cut in May. Despite this, elevated US yields continue to pressure XAU/USD.In the meantime, Federal Reserve officials crossed the newswires. San Francisco Fed Mary Daly said that CEOs feel uncertain but optimistic about growth. She is concerned about a pickup in inflation due to tariffs. Earlier, Chicago Fed Austan Goolsbee said that tariffs are much higher than expected, adding there’s anxiety that high inflation will return.Traders are eyeing the release of the Fed’s last meeting minutes, which would be overshadowed by the latest inflation figures on the consumer and producer sides.Daily digest market movers: Gold price remains firm, capped by jump in US real yieldsUS real yields surge six bps to 2.071%, as shown by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yields, a headwind for Gold prices.The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to fall from 2.8% to 2.6% YoY in March. The Core CPI is projected to decline over the next twelve months, from 3.1% to 3%.Recession fears had increased according to Goldman Sachs, which said the chances of a recession rose from 35% to 45% in 12 months, while downward revising growth forecasts, with the bank expecting the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 0.5%, due to “sharp tightening in financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts and a continued spike on policy uncertainty.”XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price hovers below $3,000 a troy ounceGold price stabilized near the $2,980, though price action suggests that traders are not finding acceptance past the $3,000 figure. Failure to achieve a daily close above the latter, could trigger a test of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,947. A breach below that level could drive XAU/USD towards the $2,900 mark ahead of the 100-day SMA at $2,805. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
00:43 AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Aussie drops sharply toward 87.00 as bearish pressure intensifies
The AUD/JPY pair extended its losses on Tuesday, trading near the 87.00 area ahead of the Asian session. The cross has dropped significantly on the day, falling near the bottom of its daily range, reflecting persistent downside pressure.
AUD/JPY trades near the 87.00 zone after falling heavily during Tuesday’s session.Momentum remains bearish as sellers dominate, with price near the lower end of its daily range.Resistance stands around the 87.48 to 91.24 zone, while longer-term moving averages reinforce the downtrend.The AUD/JPY pair extended its losses on Tuesday, trading near the 87.00 area ahead of the Asian session. The cross has dropped significantly on the day, falling near the bottom of its daily range, reflecting persistent downside pressure. The move has come alongside weakening short-term momentum indicators and a broader bearish structure confirmed by long-term trend signals.
Daily chartFrom a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 22.24, entering oversold territory but not yet reversing, which suggests bearish momentum remains in place. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints a sell signal, in line with the broader trend. Meanwhile, both the Bull Bear Power indicator (−6.794) and Stochastic %K (17.85) are showing neutral signals, signaling no immediate shift in direction.Reinforcing the negative sentiment, all key moving averages continue to flash sell signals. The 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 91.24 and 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 92.28 sit far above current price action. Similarly, the 20-day SMA (93.24), 100-day SMA (96.17), and 200-day SMA (98.16) maintain their downward slope, confirming the dominant bearish outlook.
Daily chartFrom a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 22.24, entering oversold territory but not yet reversing, which suggests bearish momentum remains in place. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints a sell signal, in line with the broader trend. Meanwhile, both the Bull Bear Power indicator (−6.794) and Stochastic %K (17.85) are showing neutral signals, signaling no immediate shift in direction.Reinforcing the negative sentiment, all key moving averages continue to flash sell signals. The 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 91.24 and 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 92.28 sit far above current price action. Similarly, the 20-day SMA (93.24), 100-day SMA (96.17), and 200-day SMA (98.16) maintain their downward slope, confirming the dominant bearish outlook.
00:15 RBNZ set for another interest rate cut amid trade tariff uncertainty
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is on track to deliver a 25 basis point (bps) cut to the Official Cash Rate (OCR), bringing down the key policy rate from 3.75% to 3.50% following its April monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.
.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is set to lower the interest rate by 25 bps to 3.5% on Wednesday.In February, the RBNZ left the door open for further cuts, anticipating the negative impact of US tariffs.The New Zealand Dollar could experience intense volatility following the RBNZ's policy announcements.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is on track to deliver a 25 basis point (bps) cut to the Official Cash Rate (OCR), bringing down the key policy rate from 3.75% to 3.50% following its April monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. The decision is fully priced in and will be announced at 02:00 GMT.Therefore, the language in the RBNZ’s policy statement will be closely scrutinized for fresh insights on future rate cuts, which could significantly impact the performance of the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).What to expect from the RBNZ interest rate decision? The RBNZ has already cut by 175 basis points since August last year, with the former Governor Adrian Orr having left the door open for rate cuts in April and May while addressing his post-policy meeting press conference in February.At its February meeting, the central bank said that “there is a risk of increased trade barriers and broader geoeconomic fragmentation,” adding that “an increase in trade restrictions is likely to reduce economic activity in New Zealand.”Earlier this month, United States (US) President Donald Trump announced his long-awaited reciprocal tariffs, with China hit by additional 34% levies while New Zealand faces 10% tariffs. The Pacific Nation said it will not retaliate. China leads the US as New Zealand’s top export market.Although the direct impact of US tariffs on New Zealand’s economy is likely to be limited, the tariffs will probably lower growth in the country's main trading partners, including Australia and China, eventually acting as a headwind to the South Pacific Island nation.The gloomier outlook on global growth could prompt the bank to retain its easing bias, with markets now expecting the OCR to bottom out at 2.75%, compared to 3% a week ago.How will the RBNZ interest rate decision impact the New Zealand Dollar?The NZD/USD pair is recovering from five-year troughs near 0.5500 in the run-up to the RBNZ showdown.The short-covering or profit-booking rally in the pair could gather steam following the RBNZ’s expected 25 bps rate decision.The Kiwi Dollar could built on its recent recovery if the RBNZ warns of higher inflation due to tariffs, sounding cautious on the scope of future rate cuts.However, amidst escalating US-China trade war and the associated risks to New Zealand’s economy, should the RBNZ surprise with a 50 bps rate cut, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) will likely crumble against the US Dollar (USD). “The NZD/USD pair remains exposed to downside risks as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains well below the 50 level, despite the latest uptick. If the downtrend resumes, the initial support is at the five-year low of 0.5506, below which the March 2020 low of 0.5470 will be targeted. If the selling pressure intensifies, the last line of defense for buyers is seen at the 0.5450 psychological level.”Any recovery attempt in the pair will require acceptance above the critical confluence resistance around the 0.5700 region, where the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), the 50-day SMA, and the 100-day SMA converge. Further up, the April 4 high of 0.5803 will be tested en route to the 200-day SMA at 0.5894,” Dhwani adds. Economic Indicator RBNZ Interest Rate Decision The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD. Read more. Next release: Wed Apr 09, 2025 02:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 3.5% Previous: 3.75% Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Why it matters to traders? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by Governor Adrian Orr’s press conference. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
00:03 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Kiwi edges higher but bears keep control below key moving averages
The NZD/USD pair registered neutral movements during Tuesday’s session, with the pair seen moving around the 0.5530 region but cleared gains which took it to highs above 0.5600.
NZD/USD trades near the 0.5530 zone ahead of Asia after modest intraday gains on Tuesday.Despite the uptick, broader signals remain bearish with price capped by multiple moving averages.Key resistance stands around the 0.5567–0.5674 band, with downside pressure building below the 0.5657 zone.The NZD/USD pair registered neutral movements during Tuesday’s session, with the pair seen moving around the 0.5530 region but cleared gains which took it to highs above 0.5600. Daily chart
Technically, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35.28, with subdued momentum but deep in negative terrain. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to flash a sell signal, reinforcing the broader downside outlook. Meanwhile, the Bull Bear Power indicator sits neutral at −0.01859, and 10-period Momentum at −0.01851 leans slightly bullish.The bigger picture remains under pressure. The 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.56571 and 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.56787 continue sloping downward. Additionally, the 20-day SMA (0.57184), 100-day SMA (0.57116), and 200-day SMA (0.58985) all support the bearish case, forming a zone of confluence that reinforces the pair’s inability to sustain rebounds.
Technically, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35.28, with subdued momentum but deep in negative terrain. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to flash a sell signal, reinforcing the broader downside outlook. Meanwhile, the Bull Bear Power indicator sits neutral at −0.01859, and 10-period Momentum at −0.01851 leans slightly bullish.The bigger picture remains under pressure. The 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.56571 and 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.56787 continue sloping downward. Additionally, the 20-day SMA (0.57184), 100-day SMA (0.57116), and 200-day SMA (0.58985) all support the bearish case, forming a zone of confluence that reinforces the pair’s inability to sustain rebounds.
위험 경고: 트레이딩은 투자위험도가 높습니다. 원금 손실 위험이 있습니다. Exinity Limited는 FSC(모리셔스)의 규제를 받습니다.
위험 경고: 트레이딩은 투자위험도가 높습니다. 원금 손실 위험이 있습니다. Exinity Limited는 FSC(모리셔스)의 규제를 받습니다.