ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

ศุกร์, มีนาคม 21, 2025

During Friday’s session ahead of the Asian open, NZD/USD declined modestly and was last seen hovering around the 0.5730 area.

NZD/USD was seen around the 0.5730 zone, posting modest daily losses ahead of the Asian session.The pair is testing a key confluence of the 20 and 100-day moving averages, with downside risks emerging below this area.During Friday’s session ahead of the Asian open, NZD/USD declined modestly and was last seen hovering around the 0.5730 area. The pair remains under pressure after sellers stepped in earlier in the day, with price action now centered around the convergence of the 20-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages—a key technical juncture for the short-term outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has sharply dropped but still holds in the positive region, hovering just above the 50 mark, suggesting that bullish momentum is fading. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above zero, but its histogram is printing smaller green bars, reflecting weakening upside pressure. Technically, a clean break below the 0.5730 support area—where the 20-day and 100-day SMAs intersect—could expose the pair to a deeper pullback toward 0.5680 and then the 0.5620 zone. On the flip side, if buyers manage to defend this support cluster, recovery attempts could target resistance around 0.5780 and 0.5820 next. NZD/USD daily chart

On Friday’s session the AUD/JPY edged slightly lower and was seen trading in the 93.70 area.

AUD/JPY was seen trading around the 93.70 zone, recording its third consecutive day of mild losses.Despite the negative streak, the pair continues to hold above the 20-day SMA, suggesting downside may be limited.Momentum indicators remain soft; RSI stays in negative territory while MACD shows flat green bars.On Friday’s session the AUD/JPY edged slightly lower and was seen trading in the 93.70 area. The pair has now posted three straight sessions of mild declines, though it remains above a key support level. Price action shows some hesitation from sellers, as bulls attempt to defend the 20-day Simple Moving Average, hinting at a potential pause in downside pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently positioned in negative territory, mildly declining near the mid-40s, which reflects limited bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, but its histogram shows flat green bars, signaling a lack of strong directional conviction. From a trend perspective, holding above the 20-day SMA, currently near the 93.50 region, keeps the short-term outlook slightly tilted to the upside. A break below this level could shift sentiment and open the door toward 93.00 or even the 92.50 area. On the flip side, resistance lies around 94.20, followed by the psychological 95.00 mark. AUD/JPY daily chart  

The AUD/USD pair remained depressed during the American session below the 0.6300 barrier as a stronger US Dollar (USD) and disappointing employment data from Australia continued to weigh.

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Technical signals have turned increasingly bearish, as indicators deteriorate and price action breaks below important moving averages. Daily digest market movers: Australian Dollar softens as US Dollar stays firm post-Fed The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended losses for a second session on Friday, pressured by both external and domestic drivers. The release of a disappointing Australian jobs report, which showed the economy shed 52.8K positions in February, well below expectations for a 30K increase, sparked fresh concerns about labor market weakness. The US Dollar built on its mid-week rebound, driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates elevated for longer, following higher inflation projections in the latest Summary of Economic Projections. Although the Fed kept its policy rate unchanged, the updated tone leaned more hawkish, providing a lift to the Greenback. Geopolitical tensions and persistent uncertainty over US trade policy also added to safe-haven flows, benefitting the US Dollar. Comments from US President Donald Trump about potential new tariffs and retaliatory trade measures have kept investors cautious, a factor that particularly affects risk-sensitive currencies like the Aussie, given Australia’s heavy trade exposure to China. From a domestic monetary policy perspective, the weak employment data increases the likelihood of further easing from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The RBA had already cut rates by 25 basis points in February, and analysts now speculate up to 75 basis points of additional easing could be warranted if economic data continues to disappoint. AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Negative momentum deepens with key levels breached The AUD/USD pair continued to move lower during Friday’s American session, hovering near the 0.6270 support zone, with bearish pressure dominating the day. The pair remains firmly below the 20-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages, confirming a deteriorating technical structure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator printed a new red bar, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped sharply to 44, staying within negative territory. Both signals point to momentum continuing to favor the downside. In terms of key levels, immediate support is seen around 0.6250, and a break below could trigger a further decline toward 0.6200. On the upside, resistance lies near 0.6310, followed by a more significant barrier at 0.6340, where the pair might face selling pressure.\ Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.  

A rebound above $33.10 could trigger a late recovery toward $33.50, but bearish momentum remains dominant.

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Silver prices plunged late in the North American session, hitting a weekly low beneath $33.00, sustaining its most significant loss since February 25, 2025. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $33.03, down more than 1.6%, blamed on a strong US Dollar (USD) and elevated US yields. XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook Silver price dipped to a fresh weekly low of $32.66 before recovering some ground. XAG/USD is poised to finish the week with losses, though sellers remained unable to clear the $32.50 psychological support level, which could’ve sponsored a test of the $32.00 figure. On the downside, the following key support level is the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $31.91, followed by the 100-day SMA at $31.19. At the same time, if buyers push the grey metal above the March 20-day low of $33.10, expect a late rally toward the $33.50 mark. XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.  

Gold price retreats for the second straight day yet is poised to finish the week in the green amid broad US Dollar (USD) strength and traders booking profits ahead of the weekend.

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The XAU/USD trades at $3,019, down 0.81%. Market mood remains downbeat, yet US equities are trimming some of their previous losses. Bullion remains defensive as the Greenback seems to have found its foot with the US Dollar Index (DXY) standing at 104.05, up 0.24%. The lack of a catalyst keeps traders focused on the main driver of the markets, President Donald Trump's trade policies. Aside from this, even Federal Reserve (Fed) officials crossing the newswires haven’t impacted Gold prices. New York Fed President John Williams commented that the central bank’s 2% target is not for debate or discussion, adding that the current modestly restrictive monetary policy is “entirely appropriate.” Later, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated that when there is a lot of uncertainty, you must wait for things to clear up. Policymakers' comments added to Powell saying that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates. This indicates that officials remain comfortable with the level of rates. Nevertheless, they stated they remain uncertain about the economy’s response to recently applied tariffs on certain products imported to the US. On Wednesday, Fed officials updated their projections about interest rates, foreseeing two rate cuts in 2025 while revising the economy downward. Regarding geopolitics, Israel announced an escalation of hostilities in Gaza to pressure the release of the remaining hostages, effectively abandoning a two-month ceasefire and launching an attack against Hamas. Daily digest market movers: Gold bulls take a breather as rally pauses US Treasury yields are rising, weighing on Bullion prices. The US 10-year T-note yield is up one basis point to 4.246%. US real yields, as measured by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yield that correlates inversely to Gold prices, rises almost 2 bps at 1.918%. The Summary of Economic Projections revealed that Fed officials anticipate two rate cuts in 2025, keeping the fed funds rate forecast at 3.9%, unchanged from December’s projections. The PCE Price Index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — and the Unemployment Rate were revised higher, while GDP growth is now projected to fall below 2%, signaling a slowdown linked to President Donald Trump’s trade policies. The money market has priced in 72 basis points of Fed easing in 2025, which has sent US Treasury yields plunging alongside the American currency. XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price conquers $3,000, set to end week above that level Gold price trends remain upward though. It could be set for a pullback unless buyers push the price above Friday’s open of $3,043. Momentum remains bearish as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falling sharply for the second straight day, clearing the index’s previous through. This hints that bears are in charge. If XAU/USD drops below $3,020, the next support would be the $3,000 mark. Once surpassed, the next area of interest would be the February 20 daily high at $2,954, followed by the $2,900 mark. Conversely, a rally above $3,050 could open the door for a rally toward the $3,100 resistance zone. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.  

United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 166.8K vs 164.1K

United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions increased to £29.4K from previous £29.2K

United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: $257.9K vs $236.1K

Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions dipped from previous $-48.2K to $-70.4K

Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions: ¥123K vs previous ¥133.9K

United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions declined to $68.3K from previous $80.6K

Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions up to €59.4K from previous €13.1K

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) saw an uptick in volatility on Friday, but settled close to where it started near 42,000 as investors grapple with deciding where to go next.

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Despite a relatively thin showing on the economic data docket, market sentiment remains tightly-drawn as traders wrestle with fresh inconsistencies from US President Donald Trump.  Adding further pressure to equities, Friday was a “quadruple witching hour” for markets, with a jumbo proportion of options slated for expiry. According to estimates by Goldman Sachs (CS) and reported by CNBC Sean Conlon, over $4.7 trillion worth of stock, index, and futures options will expire on Friday. After weeks of flip-flopping on recent tariff packages, but still vowing “reciprocal” tariffs on April 2nd, US President Donald Trump has again opened the door to “flexibility” to his previously-declared set in stone tariffs package due in early April. In a social media post on Friday morning, President Trump reiterated that the US will be imposing reciprocal tariffs on any country that has tariffs on US exports, but teased that there could be some “flexibility” in tariffs, opening the door to countries being able to negotiate down or away US import taxes. This is the sixth straight time in less than ten weeks that Donald Trump’s own tariff proposals have been changed by Donald Trump himself, and investors have grown weary under the weight of Trump’s on-again off-again trade war with everybody at the same time. The Federal Reserve (Fed) towed the line this week, brushing off recent jumps in inflation metrics and generally waving off warning signs that have begun to crop up in economic data. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) still see US interest rates declining by another 50 bps through the rest of 2025. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate traders are pricing in a nearly 80% chance that the Fed’s next quarter-point cut will be coming at the US central bank’s rate call on June 18. Stocks news Despite a charged Friday, US equity indexes remain close to the day’s opening bids. Most of the US stock sectors are testing slightly into the red, offsetting gains in key names like Boeing (BA), which is extending a recent recovery and climbing over 4% to regain $180 per share.  Dow Jones price forecast The Dow Jones continues to churn just south of key price levels, marking in several failed attempts to crack back through the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near the 42,000 major price handle. Price action is still tilted in favor of buyers, but a lack of topside momentum is keeping bids hobbled by a new technical ceiling. Dow Jones daily chart Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.  

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of currencies, is ticking higher on Friday, helped by a wave of geopolitical unease.

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Despite a retreat in Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) reaffirmation of its cutting path for 2025, the Greenback gains modest ground. The index attempts to break out of the March low range for the third straight day. Daily digest market movers: US Dollar holds gains despite lower yields, geopolitical jitters Fed rate expectations remain steady, with a strong likelihood that rates will stay unchanged in May and move lower by midyear. US 10-year yields retreat, now around 4.20%, moving closer to levels last seen in early March, as investors lean into bonds. Fed Governor Christopher Waller supports maintaining the current balance sheet reduction pace, reinforcing the central bank’s steady tightening stance. Despite softer yields, the US Dollar gains as investors weigh ongoing global risk events. Market participants eye geopolitical hotspots, including ongoing instability in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, which continue to support the Greenback. Technical analysis: DXY eyes rebound despite bearish signals on moving averages The US Dollar Index is showing early signs of recovery from its March lows, supported by defensive flows and stable Fed guidance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is gradually climbing, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram shows easing downside momentum. Immediate resistance stands near 104.20, followed by 104.80 and 105.20, while 103.40 serves as nearby support, ahead of 102.90. A bearish crossover between the 20-day and 100-day simple moving averages near 105.00 acts as a potential technical sell signal. However, with sentiment stabilizing, the index looks poised to recover further from its March base.   US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.  

The Mexican Peso remained defensive against the US Dollar on Friday, fueled by fears about trade policies the United States (US) implemented amid a busy week in the central bank space.

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Softer data in Mexico suggest the economy is slowing down harder than expected, hence the Peso’s depreciation. The USD/MXN trades at 20.23, up 0.45%. During the week, Mexico’s economic data was mixed following the release of Aggregate Demand and Private Spending figures. The former expanded, but spending plunged in the fourth quarter of last year. A preliminary reading of economic activity estimates that the economy contracted in February, increasing the odds that Banco de Mexico (Banxico) would continue to ease policy even though inflation hadn’t reached the 3% goal. The latest Citi Mexico Expectations survey revealed a unanimous consensus that Banxico would cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) at the March 27 meeting. Most analysts revised Mexico’s primary reference rate for 2025 downward and revised up the headline and core inflation figures. Of note is that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was revised down, while the USD/MXN exchange rate was adjusted slightly lower. Across the border, the US economic docket remained empty on Friday, but traders continued to digest the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision on Wednesday. The statement revealed that policymakers see the policy as appropriate and hinted they would cool the pace of the balance sheet reduction. Fed Chair Powell said they’re not in a rush to cut rates and acknowledged some uncertainty about the future of the economy due to US tariffs. Other officials crossed the newswires on Friday yet failed to trigger a USD/MXN exchange rate reaction. New York Fed President John Williams said the current modestly restrictive monetary policy is “entirely appropriate,” adding that uncertainty makes it hard to know how the economy will perform. The Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee said that when there is a lot of uncertainty, you must wait for things to clear up. Next week, Mexico’s economic docket will feature March’s mid-month inflation figures, Retail Sales, Trade Balance numbers and Banxico’s interest rate decision. In the US, traders would eye the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso slumps as economists eye dovish Banxico The Citi Mexico Expectations Survey showed that most analysts expect interest rates to end at 8% in 2025, down from 8.25% in the previous release. The USD/MXN is expected to end at 20.98, down from 21.00 in the last survey. March’s mid-month inflation is expected to rise from 3.77% in February to 3.80% YoY, as depicted in the poll, and core prices are foreseen edging up from 3.61% to 3.65% YoY. Inflation expectations remained anchored in the high 3% range, while GDP is foreseen expanding by 0.6%, down from 0.8% in the last survey. Mexico’s Global Indicator of Economic Activity fell 0.7% YoY in February. Compared to January, the economy most likely grew 0.2% MoM. The Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development revealed earlier this week that US tariffs on Mexican products could spur a recession in Mexico. Traders had priced the Fed to ease policy by 71 basis points (bps) throughout the year, as revealed by data from the Chicago Board of Trade. USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso retreats as USD/MXN climbs above 20.20 USD/MXN consolidates after bouncing off yearly lows reached on March 14 at 19.84, but it remains capped by the 20.30 figure, defended by sellers, which are also leaning into the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 20.35 and the 50-day SMA at 20.40. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bearish. However, in the short-term, it favors buyers. The index is about to cross above its neutral line, which would pave the way for further upside. In that outcome, USD/MXN needs to clear the 100 and 50-day SMAs. Once surpassed, the next ceiling level would be the March 4 peak at 20.99. Conversely, the first key support is 20.00, followed by the YTD low of 19.84, ahead of the 200-day SMA at 19.68. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.  

United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count fell from previous 487 to 486

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York John Williams noted during an appearance at the Biennial Macroeconometric Caribbean Conference, in Nassau, that the Fed's job of forecasting economic outcomes is becoming increasingly difficult, specifically under the weight of trade war threats from the Trump administration.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York John Williams noted during an appearance at the Biennial Macroeconometric Caribbean Conference, in Nassau, that the Fed's job of forecasting economic outcomes is becoming increasingly difficult, specifically under the weight of trade war threats from the Trump administration. Key highlights The Fed's current forecasted rate path looks reasonable. Downside economic risks and upside inflation risks are both very high. The key issue for monetary policy is managing risks and uncertainties. The US central bank is not in a hurry to make the next monetary policy decision. It has become harder to forecast the outlook right now. It is essential to keep inflation expectations contained. The University of Michigan inflation expectations data is an outlier. I take comfort in the stability of longer-term inflation expectations. I can't say yet what the clear impact of tariffs will be on inflation. The Fed has gotten more clarity on the Trump policy agenda.

EUR/USD declined on Friday’s session after the European close, moving near the 1.0820 zone as the pair tallied a third straight day in the red.

EUR/USD was seen trading around the 1.0820 area after the European session, falling for a third consecutive day.Despite shedding over 1% this week, the recent bullish crossover between the 100- and 200-day SMAs may provide a strong base.Momentum indicators turn bearish, with RSI dropping sharply and MACD printing a fresh red bar.EUR/USD declined on Friday’s session after the European close, moving near the 1.0820 zone as the pair tallied a third straight day in the red. After a strong rally earlier in the month, the pair has lost over 1% this week, with momentum indicators now flashing bearish signals. Still, structural support remains firm as key moving averages align beneath current price levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has sharply retreated within positive territory and now hovers near neutral, hinting at fading bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has shifted direction, printing a fresh red bar, which confirms weakening momentum in the short term. From a broader perspective, a bullish crossover between the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages has taken shape this week, forming a solid technical floor near the 1.0730 region. This development helps cushion the downside, even if sellers continue to weigh on the pair in the near term. Looking ahead, immediate support is seen at the 1.0780-1.0730 zone, where the moving average crossover occurred. A break below could expose further losses toward 1.0660. On the upside, resistance now sits at 1.0900, followed by 1.1000 should buyers regain control. EUR/USD daily chart

The Pound Sterling (GBP) dropped some 0.29% against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, set to end the week unchanged after major central banks featured monetary policy decisions led by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE).

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At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.2931 after hitting a daily peak of 1.2969. Sterling drops 0.29%, set to end the week flat after dovish Fed and BoE tone Market mood remains downbeat, as depicted by US equities posting losses, while the Greenback remains bid. On Thursday, the BoE kept rates unchanged and said there is uncertainty about the future, echoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell's words. Both policymakers mentioned US President Donald Trump’s tariffs against its partners as a cause. Kenneth Broux, the head of corporate research at Societe Generale, said “There's just a general sense of caution. We don't really know what are the implications of the trade war on growth and inflation.” Traders had circled April 2 as a crucial date for the enactment of US reciprocal tariffs. Most analysts estimate that the trade war might spur a slowdown in the global economy. The lack of economic data releases and the beginning of the Fed parade leaves traders leaning on policymakers. New York Fed John Williams said the Fed’s 2% target is not up for debate, adding that the current modestly restrictive monetary policy is “entirely appropriate,” and it is hard to know how the economy will perform. Chicago’s Fed, Austan Goolsbee, said that when there is a lot of uncertainty, you have to wait for things to clear up. Next week, the UK economic docket will feature the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Spring Budget Statement. Across the pond, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, will also be eyed. GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook The GBP/USD is set to finish the week almost flat, yet it has advanced steadily since climbing above the 1.2900 handle. Nevertheless, the pair printed three bearish days, hitting a four-day low of 1.2927. In the short term, momentum favors sellers, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which aims lower despite being in bullish territory. This opens the door for a pullback, and traders could pull the GBP/USD to challenge the March 10 low of 1.2861. If surpassed, the next stop is the 200-day SMA at 1.2797. On the other hand, if buyers drive the exchange rate past 1.3000, the next resistance would be the November 6 peak at 1.3047. British Pound PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.   USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD   0.48% 0.06% 0.03% -0.23% 0.95% 0.14% -0.25% EUR -0.48%   -0.53% -0.85% -0.70% 0.32% -0.35% -0.75% GBP -0.06% 0.53%   0.02% -0.38% 0.85% 0.17% -0.28% JPY -0.03% 0.85% -0.02%   -0.25% 0.71% 0.16% -0.40% CAD 0.23% 0.70% 0.38% 0.25%   0.97% 0.37% -0.56% AUD -0.95% -0.32% -0.85% -0.71% -0.97%   -0.65% -1.06% NZD -0.14% 0.35% -0.17% -0.16% -0.37% 0.65%   -0.40% CHF 0.25% 0.75% 0.28% 0.40% 0.56% 1.06% 0.40%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).  

Eurozone Consumer Confidence below forecasts (-13) in March: Actual (-14.5)

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Friday that he preferred to continue the current pace of balance sheet decline at this week's meeting, per Reuters.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Friday that he preferred to continue the current pace of balance sheet decline at this week's meeting, per Reuters. Key takeaways "Slowing or stopping run off will be appropriate as we get closer to an ample level of reserves." "In my view, we are not there yet because reserve balances stand at over $3 trillion and this level is abundant." "No evidence from money market indicators or my conversations that banking system is getting close to an ample level of reserves." "I believe the slowed run-off pace beginning in June 2024 continues to be the right one." "Fed has tools available to mitigate unanticipated market disturbances and should rely on these and develop a plan to respond to any short-run strains." "Even with the new slower pace of run off, a plan is still needed." Market reaction The US Dollar Index showed no immediate reaction to these comments and was last seen rising 0.2% on the day at 103.98.

The USD/CHF pair flattens around 0.8820 during North American trading hours on Friday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CHF trades sideways around 0.8820 even though the US Dollar trades strongly.Fed Williams believes that the current moderate restrictive policy stance is appropriate.The SNB cut its interest rates by 25 bps to 0.25% on Thursday.The USD/CHF pair flattens around 0.8820 during North American trading hours on Friday. The Swiss Franc pair trades sideways even though the US Dollar (USD) exhibits strength amid expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut its key borrowing rates in the near term. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rises to near 104.00. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.   USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD   0.27% 0.27% 0.10% 0.11% 0.45% 0.13% 0.01% EUR -0.27%   0.02% -0.16% -0.12% 0.19% -0.06% -0.27% GBP -0.27% -0.02%   -0.15% -0.14% 0.17% -0.08% -0.27% JPY -0.10% 0.16% 0.15%   0.00% 0.33% 0.05% -0.15% CAD -0.11% 0.12% 0.14% -0.01%   0.30% 0.06% -0.13% AUD -0.45% -0.19% -0.17% -0.33% -0.30%   -0.25% -0.54% NZD -0.13% 0.06% 0.08% -0.05% -0.06% 0.25%   -0.18% CHF -0.01% 0.27% 0.27% 0.15% 0.13% 0.54% 0.18%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Fed officials have stated that they are not in a hurry to move to interest rate cuts as they struggle to interpret the outcome of United States (US) President Donald Trump’s economic policies. In Friday’s North American session, Chicago Fed Bank President Austan Goolsbee said in an interview with CNBC that the Fed needs to be a “steady hand” and take the “long view” on the economy. Goolsbee added that the central bank needs to know how long the “tariffs last, possible retaliation, pass through to consumers”. Separately, New York Fed Bank President John Williams said that the current modestly restrictive monetary policy is "entirely appropriate" with a “solid job market” and “above-target inflation”. Meanwhile, investors look for fresh updates on reciprocal tariffs from US President Trump, which he is expected to unveil on April 2. Investors expect that the implementation of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs will be unfavorable for global economic growth. The Swiss Franc (CHF) outperforms all peers on Friday even though the Swiss National Bank (SNB) reduced interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 0.25% on Thursday. SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel stated after the policy decision that the outlook for Swiss inflation is unclear due to weaker economic growth globally and a possible rise in the CHF value. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.      

The USD/JPY pair gives up entire intraday gains after facing selling pressure around 149.60 and drops to near 148.60 during North American trading hours on Friday.

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The USD/JPY pair gives up entire intraday gains after facing selling pressure around 149.60 and drops to near 148.60 during North American trading hours on Friday. The asset drops as the US Dollar (USD) gains, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) rising to near 104.00. The Greenback attracts bids as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is unlikely to cut interest rates in the near term. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that they are not in a hurry to cut interest rates amid “unusually elevated” uncertainty over the United States (US) economic outlook under the leadership of President Donald Trump. Powell also warned that Donald Trump’s tariff policy tends to push growth lower and inflation higher. During North American trading hours on Friday, Chicago Fed Bank President Austan Goolsbee and New York Fed Bank President Jon Williams signalled that the current interest rate policy is appropriate as the central bank lacks clarity over Trump’s economic policies. Going forward, investors will focus on the flash US S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for March, which will be released on Monday. In the Asia-Pacific region, soft National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February has weighed on the Japanese Yen (JPY). The headline National CPI rose by 3.7%, slower than 4% growth seen in January. The National CPI ex. Fresh Food, which is closely tracked by Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials, grew at a faster-than-expected pace of 3% but pace remained moderate from the prior reading of 3.2%. However, traders remained confident that the BoJ will tighten the monetary policy further this year as Japan's largest trade union group’s, Rengo, showed that firms agreed to raise pay growth by 5.4% this year. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.  

Government borrowing data revealed a larger than forecast GBP10.7bn net public sector borrowing in February, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Government borrowing data revealed a larger than forecast GBP10.7bn net public sector borrowing in February, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.  Gilts weaker on government borrowing data "The UK’s budget deficit has reached GBP132.3bn in the first 11 months of the fiscal year, GBP20bn above forecasts. The data add to pressure on Chancellor Reeves to reduce spending (and perhaps raise taxes) in next week’s Spring Statement address. Gilts are underperforming but the GBP has generally tracked the performance of the EUR over the course of the session so far."  "Cable’s soft close yesterday (confirming an outside range day reversal) is a clear negative for the pound on the charts. But additional losses so far today have not even extended to test the midmonth range low (1.2910) and price action through European trade has been more consolidative (despite negative fundamental news)."  "Weakness should develop a little more on a push under 1.2900/10. Resistance is 1.2980."

Spot continues to consolidate in the low 1.08s, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Spot continues to consolidate in the low 1.08s, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.  Germany approves spending plans "EU leaders failed to reach an agreement on a EUR5bn aid package for Ukraine last night, weighing on EUR sentiment somewhat. However, Germany’s upper house supported the incoming government’s plans to boost spending dramatically, sealing final approval for the aggressive fiscal expansion."  "EUR losses since the middle of the week leave spot looking soft but support in the low 1.08 region is holding and a clear push under 1.0820 is perhaps needed to lift negative momentum. A break lower may see spot losses extend to the 1.0720/30 area. (200-day MA at 1.0726 currently). Resistance remains 1.0950"

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed on the session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed on the session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.  USD can return back to the low/mid-1.42s "BoC Governor Macklem’s remarks on tariffs and monetary policy yesterday underscored the Bank’s sensitivity to the inflationary consequences of trade wars. He noted that the hot February CPI report had got policymakers’ attention but their outlook had not fundamentally changed. Market expectations for policy moves were unchanged around the comments. Swaps reflect around 80% probability of a 25bps cut by June."  "The USD’s failed push higher yesterday should put an effective cap on funds in the short run at least. Price action indicates a clear rejection of yesterday’s test of 1.44 and the USD closed the session back under resistance around 1.4340/50. This may set the market up for another push on trend support at 1.4300/10, with a break below here likely to drive the USD back to the low/mid-1.42s"

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said on Friday that the current modestly restrictive monetary policy is "entirely appropriate," as reported by Reuters.

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said on Friday that the current modestly restrictive monetary policy is "entirely appropriate," as reported by Reuters. Key takeaways "Current rate policy fits with solid job market and above-target inflation." "There is a lot of uncertainty in economy and policy right now." "Expecting growth to slow in part due to lower immigration." "Hard to know how economy is going to perform." "Many different economic scenarios are possible right now." "Disinflation process has followed a bumpy path." "It was natural step for US central bank to slow pace of its balance sheet drawdown." "No signs inflation expectations becoming unmoored." "Data shows public believes near-term inflation rise will dissipate." "Economic data has been sending mixed signals." "Economy entered year on firm footing." "Labor market started year out better balanced." Market reaction The US Dollar Index clings to modest daily gains following these comments and was last seen rising 0.18% on the day at 103.97.

The US Dollar (USD) is ending the week a little firmer overall—but still a bit shy of breaking out from the consolidation range in place since the start of the week, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The US Dollar (USD) is ending the week a little firmer overall—but still a bit shy of breaking out from the consolidation range in place since the start of the week, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.  USD firmer into weekend on market caution ahead of tariff news "Major currencies are broadly mixed Friday, with moderate gains noted for the NOK and SEK, plus some gains for Asian regional FX. The JPY, meanwhile, is a little softer (despite higher-than-forecast February CPI) while the USD has advanced a little against the core European majors. Bonds are mixed—Gilts are underperforming slightly—but stocks continue to struggle as soft company earnings add to concerns about economic prospects. Fedex—a company whose performance I noted was a bellwether for global trade recently—cut its profit outlook."  "Yesterday’s Philly Fed survey reflected the stagflation-y vibes from the FOMC earlier this week. New orders weakened and prices paid rose. With this week’s run of central bank policy decisions out of the way, the market’s focus appears to be shifting more to the early April US tariff announcement. The news flow on tariffs has gone a little quiet over the past week but the smattering of reports that have emerged suggest there is still some uncertainty about how precisely to proceed with the president’s desire to unleash aggressive tariffs on its trade partners. Weaker stock market trends and survey reports indicating weakening confidence around the tariff issue may be having some impact on White House thinking."  "After the broader run lower in the USD through February and March so far, some consolidation or recovery in the USD is not to be excluded as a risk. A firm close on the week would lift chances of a moderate USD rebound, especially if the DXY can push clearly through 104.10. However, the broader issue of eroding 'US exceptionalism' remains which should limit the USD’s ability to strengthen significantly. And, oddly enough, the DXY continues to track its (weaker) Trump 1.0 'flightpath' very closely."

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, extends recovery and trades around 104.00 at the time of writing on Friday, trying to break out higher.

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The move away from the 2025 low at 103.20 reached on Tuesday comes after the Financial Times reported European countries are drawing up plans to take on responsibilities for the continent’s defence from the United States (US),  including a pitch to the Trump administration for a managed transfer over the next five to 10 years, which would reshape the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).  The European bloc wants to avoid a disorganised exit from the US in the treaty.  Meanwhile, pressure is mounting with April 2 as the deadline for the US to impose reciprocal tariffs. Several traders and analysts are trying to grasp the impact the tariffs might have on markets, though for now, this remains unclear. US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell said in the press conference following the latest Fed meeting on Wednesday that levies should have a transitory effect on inflation.  Markets seem to believe those words, however, traders remain doubtful. The last time Powell said effects were transitory, the Fed had to hike from 0.25% to 5.5% its policy rate in the post-covid era when inflation appeared to be sticky, not transitory. It took the central bank more than a year to confirm that. Daily digest market movers: Very quiet ahead This Friday will be marked as Quadruple Witching day. Quadruple Witching is an event in financial markets when four different sets of futures and options expire on the same day, and investors need to decide whether to sell and buy back their positions or just sell them. At 13:05, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams delivers keynote remarks at the 2nd Biennial Macroeconometric Caribbean Conference in Nassau, Bahamas. At 15:00 GMT, US President Donald Trump will give a speech from the Oval Office.  Equities are dropping lower on Friday. In China, the Hang Seng and the Shanghai Shenzhen indexes both dropped over 1.50%. This fueled another rout in European equities and in US futures. Concerns are mounting as US corporate profit earnings look bleak, and several central banks – including the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England – have expressed uncertainty about the economy due to tariffs, affecting their policy-making. According to the CME Fedwatch Tool, the probability of interest rates remaining at the current range of 4.25%-4.50% in May’s meeting is at 83.1%. For June, the odds for borrowing costs being lower stand at 70.0%. The US 10-year yield trades around 4.22%, heading back to its five-month low of 4.10% printed on March 4.US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Contradictions and correlationsThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is ticking up for a third day in a row and is already trading positive for this week’s performance. The seismic shift that materialised at the start of March is still present. With the US reciprocal tariff deadline on April 2 approaching, either a full swing trade back to 106.82 or another leg lower towards 101.90 or even 100.62 could occur as markets are having a hard time reading and understanding the possible effects of these tariffs on the global economy.  Should the DXY close above 104.00 this week, a large sprint higher towards the 105.00 round level could happen, with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) converging at that point and reinforcing this area as a strong resistance. Once broken through that zone, a string of pivotal levels, such as 105.53 and 105.89, could limit the upward momentum.  On the downside, the 103.00 round level could be considered a bearish target in case US yields roll off further on deteriorating US data, with even 101.90 on the table if markets further capitulate on their long-term US Dollar holdings.  US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.  

In an interview with CNBC on Friday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said that they have to wait for things to clear up when there is a lot of uncertainty.

In an interview with CNBC on Friday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said that they have to wait for things to clear up when there is a lot of uncertainty. Key takeaways "There has been a decided turn towards anxiety and waiting on capital spending among business contacts." "Current conditions are maybe a shock to the economy depending on how long they last." "The Fed needs to be a steady hand and take the long view on the economy." "Markets want information fast but that is not realistic at this moment." "Still a lot of strength in the economy right now." "Unemployment and inflation do reflect progress towards the dual mandate." "Before judging how monetary policy reacts to tariffs, Fed needs to know how long the tariffs last, possible retaliation, pass through to consumers." "Imports are only 11% of GDP, so one time tariffs that are not followed by retaliation are more likely to be transitory." "The bigger they are and the more like supply shocks they are the harder it will be for the fed to look through them." "The answer to what transitory means this time around is whether the tariffs apply to intermediate goods, stoke retaliation, and other factors." Market reaction These comments failed to trigger a noticeable reaction in the US Dollar Index. At the time of press, the index was up 0.12% on the day at 103.92.

Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY) remains at 0.1% in February

Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.1%, above forecasts (0%) in February

Canada Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) came in at 0.2%, above forecasts (-0.2%) in January

Canada Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -0.6%, below expectations (-0.4%) in January

USD/JPY edged up just under 150.00, BBH FX analysts report.

USD/JPY edged up just under 150.00, BBH FX analysts report.  USD/JPY faces important resistance around 152.00 "Japan February CPI was mixed and does not move the dial on BOJ rate expectations. Headline and Core ex. food CPI slowed less than anticipated to 3.7% y/y (consensus: 3.5%, prior: 4.0%) and 3.0% (consensus: 2.9%, prior: 3.2%), respectively."  "Core ex-fresh food, energy matched consensus and rose to an 11-month high at 2.6% y/y vs. 2.5% in January. The swaps market continues to price-in a BOJ terminal rate of 1.00% to 1.25% over the next two years with the next full 25bps hike in September." "The limited room for a further upward adjustment to BOJ rate expectations curtails JPY upside. Meanwhile, JPY downside is contained as the BOJ has low tolerance for a weaker currency. USD/JPY faces important resistance at the 200-day moving average around 152.00."

USD/CAD is consolidating around 1.4330, BBH FX analysts report.

USD/CAD is consolidating around 1.4330, BBH FX analysts report.  High inflation and unfavorable growth prospect are bad news for CAD "Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Tiff Macklem delivered a cautious yet pragmatic speech yesterday. Macklem warned 'Depending on the extent and duration of tariffs, the economic impact could be severe. The uncertainty is already causing harm. We need to make sure that a tariff problem doesn’t become an inflation problem'.” "Canada headline and core CPI inflation are tracking above the BOC Q1 projection. The implication is the BOC has limited room to ease policy further to offset the drag to growth from heightened trade policy uncertainty. The combination of high inflation and unfavorable growth prospect is not good news for CAD." "Statistics Canada’s advanced retail indicator suggests sales decreased -0.4% m/m in January after rising 2.5% in December. The outlook for household spending activity is not encouraging. A Bank of Canada survey conducted from January 29 to February 28, show Canadians are more worried about their job security and financial health as a result of the trade tensions, and they intend to spend more cautiously."
 

EUR/USD remains heavy near this week’s lows, BBH FX analysts report.

EUR/USD remains heavy near this week’s lows, BBH FX analysts report.  Current account surplus is a natural source of underlying demand for EUR "However, encouraging Eurozone fiscal developments, and the favorable balance of payment backdrop suggest EUR/USD will find good support at its 200-day moving average (1.0726)."  "The Eurozone current account surplus totaled 2.7% of GDP in January vs. 2.8% in December. Still, the current account surplus is large by historical standards and is a natural source of underlying demand for EUR."

GBP/USD is down to a 5-day low, and 10-year gilts are underperforming.

GBP/USD is down to a 5-day low, and 10-year gilts are underperforming. The UK fiscal backdrop is not pretty. Borrowing in the first eleven months of the 2024-25 financial year totaled £132.2 billion, reflecting both higher spending and lower tax receipts. This was £14.7 billion more than at the same point in the last financial year and the third highest financial year-to-February borrowing since monthly records began in 1993. It’s also £20.4 billion above the monthly profile consistent with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast, BBH FX analysts report.  BoE vote split pushes UK rate expectations higher "Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will deliver the Spring Budget Statement next week and is expected to turn to public spending reduction rather than tax hikes to balance the books. Gilt issuance for the 2024/2025 financial year is forecast to be raised £10 billion to near a record sum of £310 billion." "Yesterday, the Bank of England (BOE) delivered on expectations and kept the policy rate steady at 4.50%. The BOE stuck to its guidance of 'a gradual and careful approach' to further rate cuts. However, the 8-1 vote split to stay on hold was a hawkish surprise and triggered an upward adjustment to UK rate expectations." "Staunch dove, Swati Dhingra, preferred to reduce Bank Rate by 25bps after voting in favor of a 50bps cut in February. Meanwhile, Catherine L Mann voted with the majority to keep rates steady after supporting a 50bps cut in February. Over the next 12 months, the swaps market continues to price-in 50bps of easing but have virtually fully priced-out odds of an additional 25bps cut."

India FX Reserves, USD: $654.27B (March 10) vs $653.97B

India Bank Loan Growth climbed from previous 11% to 11.1% in March 3

In its first estimates for 2025/26, the International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts corn production to increase from 1,217mt in 2024/25 to 1,269mt in 2025/26, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

In its first estimates for 2025/26, the International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts corn production to increase from 1,217mt in 2024/25 to 1,269mt in 2025/26, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. Markets expect greater output from Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, and the US "This reflects expectations for greater output from Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, and the US. As for consumption, the council thinks demand will increase to 1,263mt from 1,238mt. Corn ending stocks are forecast to rise from 274mt to 280mt in 2025/26. Similarly, global soybean production and consumption are estimated to rise to 427mt (+2.2% YoY) and 426mt (+4.2% YoY), respectively."  "This will see 2025/26 soybean ending stocks rising from 82mt to 83mt. As for wheat, the IGC expects output to increase from 799mt to 807mt in 2025/26 amid rising production from the EU and UK. However, ending stocks are still forecast to drop from 265mt in 2024/25 to 259mt in 2025/26."

Silver price (XAG/USD) posts a fresh weekly low near $33.00 in Friday’s European session.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver price tumbles to near $33 as the Fed sees no hurry for interest rate cuts.US President Trump’s policies are expected to push US inflation higher and economic growth lower.Potential Trump reciprocal tariffs limit the downside in Silver.Silver price (XAG/USD) posts a fresh weekly low near $33.00 in Friday’s European session. The white metal extends its losing streak for the third trading day as the US Dollar (USD) extends its upside on deepening expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut interest rates in the near term. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, jumps to near 104.00. The Fed expressed that interest rates won’t be reduced until they seek clarity over how much United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariffs will dampen economic growth and accelerate inflationary pressures. These signals came after the central bank left borrowing rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50% for the second time in a row. The scenario of the Fed maintaining interest rates at their restrictive levels for longer bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver. Meanwhile, fears of Trump imposing reciprocal tariffs on April 2 would limit the downside in the Silver price. Trump’s tariff policies are expected to weigh on global growth. Historically, heightened global uncertainty improves the appeal of safe-haven assets. Silver technical analysis Silver price struggles to revisit the flat border of the Ascending Triangle chart pattern formation on the daily timeframe near the October 22 high of $34.87. The upward-sloping border of the above-mentioned chart pattern is placed from the August 8 low of $26.45. Technically, the Ascending Triangle pattern indicates indecisiveness among market participants. The Silver price declines to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $32.95. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls below 60.00, suggesting that the bullish momentum has come to an end. However, the bullish bias is still intact. Looking down, the March 6 high of $32.77 will act as key support for the Silver price. While, the October 22 high of $34.87 will be the major barrier. Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.  

The sterling curve saw a minor 5bp hawkish repricing after the Bank of England’s consensus hold yesterday, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

The sterling curve saw a minor 5bp hawkish repricing after the Bank of England’s consensus hold yesterday, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. Data uncertainty remains elevated "There were two noteworthy aspects of the meeting: firstly, Catherine Mann has rapidly abandoned the dovish camp, leaving only one member voting against a hold, and secondly, we saw some reference to the fact that should data show greater job market instability, the BoE can draw disinflation-related conclusions and cut rates faster." "Our call is unchanged – three cuts this year – but data uncertainty remains elevated. The UK is about to face the combined impact of the announced hike in corporate taxes, US tariffs, and a likely spending squeeze to be announced next week. The balance of risks looks tilted to the downside for growth – and intuitively for front-end GBP rates – but inflation has remained too sticky so far, and the Sonia pricing has remained understandably cautious (two cuts by year-end)." "We still look with some concern at next week’s budget events from a sterling perspective. Implications for growth and the bond market argue against short-term bullishness on the pound. We still prefer playing any GBP weakness through Cable rather than EUR/GBP."

EUR/GBP ended the day lower on the back of a hawkish vote split at yesterday's BoE meeting, where the BoE kept the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.50% in line with expectations, Danske Bank's FX analyst Jens Nærvig Pedersen reports.

EUR/GBP ended the day lower on the back of a hawkish vote split at yesterday's BoE meeting, where the BoE kept the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.50% in line with expectations, Danske Bank's FX analyst Jens Nærvig Pedersen reports.  EUR/GBP set to move lower in the near term   "The central bank maintained its previous guidance signalling a 'gradual and careful' approach to easing monetary policy. Although the vote split was slightly to the hawkish side, we do not see this as a broad shift in sentiment within the MPC. We expect the next 25bp cut in May with the Bank Rate ending the year at 3.75%." 
"For GBP FX we do not see yesterday's meeting as a game changer and forecast EUR/GBP to move lower."

US natural gas prices sold off heavily yesterday, with the front-month Henry Hub contract settling 6.4% lower, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

US natural gas prices sold off heavily yesterday, with the front-month Henry Hub contract settling 6.4% lower, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. Total storage levels are 10% below the five-year average "The downward pressure has continued this morning. This is after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US natural gas storage increased by 9 bcf over the last week, above the expected 5 bcf increase. However, total storage levels are still tight, standing at 1.71 tcf, down 26.8% year on year and 10% below the five-year average."

The stronger US Dollar (USD) momentum is showing in USD/JPY this morning, with the pair trading higher despite a stronger-than-expected February CPI print overnight, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

The stronger US Dollar (USD) momentum is showing in USD/JPY this morning, with the pair trading higher despite a stronger-than-expected February CPI print overnight, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. May will see the next move in BoJ rates "Core inflation came in at 3.0% year-on-year versus expectations of 2.9%. The print is still marking a small slowdown from January (3.2%) and markets may therefore lack the incentive to bring the next hike forward to May. Our economist’s base case is instead that May will see the next move in rates."  "We suspect that USD/JPY is facing a similar unwinding of USD shorts to the rest of the G10 pairs. Given the yen’s safe-haven appeal ahead of US tariff announcements and our hawkish view on the Bank of Japan, we are not convinced a USD rebound will be played primarily via a materially higher USD/JPY."

EUR/CHF ended the day broadly unchanged after the SNB delivered a 25bp cut, bringing the policy rate to 0.25%, Danske Bank's FX analysts Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt and Filip Andersson report.

EUR/CHF ended the day broadly unchanged after the SNB delivered a 25bp cut, bringing the policy rate to 0.25%, Danske Bank's FX analysts Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt and Filip Andersson report.  SNB to make a final 25bp cut at the next meeting in June "Overall, the SNB stuck to its previous guidance noting that the SNB 'will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term'." "The SNB signalled that risks are skewed to the downside for both the inflation and growth outlook. We stick to our call of final cut to the policy rate of 25bp at the next meeting in June, which would bring the policy rate to 0%. We stay bullish on CHF."

The dollar had another good session yesterday and stayed bid overnight.

The dollar had another good session yesterday and stayed bid overnight. There was no clear catalyst in data or market events, and the USD rebound seems to be more related to the unwinding of short positions ahead of US tariffs being implemented on 2 April, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. Empty US data calendar provides better opportunities for the greenback "Coincidentally, European equities have lagged US stocks this week – a rare occurrence lately. Likely contributing to that is the more tepid optimism on an imminent Russia-Ukraine truce after high-level talks this week only yielded a halt to energy infrastructure strikes." "Our preference is to chase the dollar rebound at this stage, but we admit that data can easily get in the way. Yesterday, the US Conference Board Leading Index came in just below consensus at -0.3% month-on-month, a soft print but not as alarming as other indicators. At the same time, there is still very little evidence from jobless claims of stress in the labour market." "The US data calendar is empty today. A day without key data may offer better opportunities for the greenback to keep recovering ground. The Federal Reserve's blackout period is also officially over, and the cautious tone struck by the FOMC and Chair Jerome Powell this week likely leaves decent room for post-meeting tweaks in communication. Those should mostly come after new data has been released, but we’ll still keep a close eye on the dovish-leaning Austan Goolsbee's interview with CNBC today."

Russia Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (21%)

EUR/USD fell below 1.09 yesterday, Danske Bank's FX analyst Jens Nærvig Pedersen reports.

EUR/USD fell below 1.09 yesterday, Danske Bank's FX analyst Jens Nærvig Pedersen reports.  EUR/USD struggles to gain upside traction "Despite the FOMC's dovish stance, which has pressured US yields lower, and President Trump's comments advocating rate cuts, EUR/USD has struggled to gain upside traction. Instead, the pair has steadily declined, with the USD broadly strengthening across G10 yesterday, likely driven by risk-off sentiment."  "No clear catalysts have emerged, as jobless claims remain relatively stable and the Philadelphia Fed business outlook slightly exceeded expectations. The risk of further EUR/USD decline is reflected in one-week risk reversals falling to 42bp in favour of puts over calls - the most bearish sentiment since the beginning of March."  "We still expect EUR/USD to consolidate in the 1.08-1.09 range in the near term."

EUR/USD trades lower to near the 10-day low of 1.0815 in Friday’s European session.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD falls to near 1.0815 as the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates soon.US President Trump’s tariff agenda could lead to cost-push inflation globally.ECB Lagarde expects potential Trump-led inflation in the Eurozone won’t be persistent.EUR/USD trades lower to near the 10-day low of 1.0815 in Friday’s European session. The major currency pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens after the Federal Reserve (Fed) expressed that interest rate cuts are not on the table in the current scenario. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rises to near 104.15. On Wednesday, the Fed kept interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50% for the second time in a row, as expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in the press conference that the central bank is not going to be in a “hurry” to move onto “interest rate cuts”. His comments supporting a restrictive monetary policy stance stemmed from “unusually elevated” uncertainty over the United States (US) economic outlook. Powell commented that the implementation of new policies by US President Donald Trump could lead to an economic slowdown and a resurgence in inflationary pressures in the near term. Meanwhile, investors seek meaningful updates on Trump’s plan of imposing reciprocal tariffs on April 2. Market participants expect tariffs might affect economic growth and boost price pressures across the globe. Globally, manufacturers will be forced to underutilize their production capacity, which could result in fresh escalation in cost-push inflation. On the economic front, investors will focus on the flash US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for March, which will be released on Monday. Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD drops amid weakness in Euro The downside move in the EUR/USD pair is also driven by weakness in the Euro (EUR). The major currency underperforms its peers as investors expect US President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs to significantly impact the Eurozone’s economic growth.  European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has also warned about downside economic risks from the Trump-led trade war and dials back fears of persistently higher Eurozone inflation. On Thursday, Lagarde said before the European Parliament Committee that the inflationary impact of the trade war would be temporary as the effect would “ease in the medium term” due to “lower economic activity dampening inflationary pressures”.  The major victim of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs is expected to be Germany, a leading trading partner of the US. The US charges a 2.5% levy on the import of German cars while the Eurozone takes 10% duty. Till now, Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on foreign automobiles and introduce reciprocal tariffs soon. Investors seek to know whether the US will impose 10% or 25% tariffs on German cars. Meanwhile, the approval for the infusion of billions of Euros into the German economy through the expansion of borrowing limit by officials at Bundestag lower house of parliament is expected to support the economy from potential US tariff fears. This week, likely Chancellor Frederich Merz-led-Conservatives and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) secured support from the Greens for the creation of an infrastructure fund worth 500 billion Euro (EUR) and breaking fiscal conservatism to boost defense spending. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD falls to near 1.0815 EUR/USD declines to near 1.0815 after failing to hold the key level of 1.0900. However, the long-term outlook of the major currency pair is still bullish as it holds above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.0664. The pair strengthened after a decisive breakout above the December 6 high of 1.0630 on March 5.  The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) cools down after turning overbought around 75.00, suggesting that the bullish momentum has moderated, but the upside bias remains intact. Looking down, the December 6 high of 1.0630 will act as the major support zone for the pair. Conversely, the psychological level of 1.1000 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  

The USD/CAD pair ticks higher to near 1.4330 in European trading hours on Friday but remains inside Thursday’s trading range.

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The Loonie pair is marginally higher even though the US Dollar (USD) trades strongly, suggesting the Canadian Dollar (CAD) also trades firmly. Canadian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.   USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD   0.17% 0.17% 0.40% 0.02% 0.22% -0.04% 0.07% EUR -0.17%   0.02% 0.26% -0.12% 0.06% -0.14% -0.11% GBP -0.17% -0.02%   0.23% -0.14% 0.05% -0.15% -0.12% JPY -0.40% -0.26% -0.23%   -0.39% -0.19% -0.41% -0.39% CAD -0.02% 0.12% 0.14% 0.39%   0.18% -0.01% 0.01% AUD -0.22% -0.06% -0.05% 0.19% -0.18%   -0.20% -0.26% NZD 0.04% 0.14% 0.15% 0.41% 0.00% 0.20%   0.03% CHF -0.07% 0.11% 0.12% 0.39% -0.01% 0.26% -0.03%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, moves higher to near 104.10. The Greenback gains as the Federal Reserve (Fed) has expressed that interest rates will not be reduced in the near term. On Wednesday, the Fed left interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, as expected, and stuck with their projection of cutting interest rates two times this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that monetary policy adjustments are not ideal in the current scenario, given “unusually elevated” uncertainty due to new economic policies under the leadership of United States (US) President Trump. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar trades higher even though market participants are confident that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will cut interest rates again. Analysts at Bank of America (BofA) expect the BoC to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.50% in April but cautioned that the decision could be influenced by US "reciprocal tariffs" and the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. USD/CAD holds above the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.4226, suggesting that the overall trend is bullish. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sideways trend. Going forward, an upside move above the March 10 high of 1.4470 will open the door toward the psychological resistance of 1.4500 and the January 30 high of 1.4595. On the contrary, a breakdown below the February 14 low of 1.4151 by the pair would expose it to the December 9 low of 1.4094, followed by the December 6 low of 1.4020. USD/CAD daily chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.  

Riksbank kept rates on hold and the Swiss National Bank cutting another 25bp, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Riksbank kept rates on hold and the Swiss National Bank cutting another 25bp, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. EUR/CHF to return to 0.950 in the second quarter "On the former, markets had already anticipated that rates had reached the bottom, and the krona was only marginally moved. EUR/SEK remains cheap according to our short-term fair value model and we continue to favour a rebound to the 11.10-11.20 mark over the coming weeks." "In Switzerland, another SNB cut brought the policy rate to 0.25%. The accompanying statement left all options open, but our economist notes how, for the first time in a long time, the SNB hasn’t had to revise its inflation projections lower. We expect a hold in June and lean towards calling for the end of the easing cycle altogether."  "As we had anticipated, the Swiss franc dropped on the announcement, but EUR/CHF does not seem to have much bullish steam. Any further rallies should anyway fall short of breaking above 0.970 and our bias for the second quarter remains a return to 0.950."

Gold’s price (XAU/USD) is dipping lower and sees its second day of profit-taking while the weekly performance is still positive.

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The precious metal trades around $3,030 at the time of writing on Friday after reaching a fresh all-time high at $3,057 the previous day. This downside move should not come as a surprise with Quadruple Witching taking place. Quadruple Witching is an event in financial markets when four different sets of futures and options expire on the same day, and investors need to decide whether to sell and buy back their positions or just sell them. Meanwhile, on the geopolitical front, tensions remain in Gaza and Turkey. Later during the day,  markets will brace for comments on tariffs from United States (US) President Donald Trump, as announced reciprocal tariffs will come into effect on April 2 and might shake up markets. Daily digest market movers: Pension funds delightGold has climbed 16% this year in a rally that has produced 15 all-time highs in 2025, extending last year’s strong gains as investors seek safety. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine have bolstered the precious metal’s appeal. Several major banks have raised their price targets for bullion in recent weeks, with Macquarie Group forecasting it could rise as high as $3,500 an ounce, Bloomberg reports.  An example of how not only traders enjoy the Gold’s rally comes with numbers from the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan. The pension fund gained 9.4% last year, driven by strong returns in stocks, venture growth and commodities. The performance boosted the fund’s net assets to $185.2 billion at the end of 2024, according to a statement Thursday, Bloomberg reports. Indonesian mining Stocks tumbled on Friday after the government signaled it was pushing forward with plans to hike royalties paid by producers in a bid to bolster public finances, Reuters reports. The local industry index for miners, including PT Vale Indonesia and PT Merdeka Copper Gold, fell as much as 3.2%, the biggest slide since the plan was first proposed at the start of last week.Technical Analysis: Window of opportunityThe quadruple witching this Friday offers traders and funds a window of opportunity to take some profit from the precious metal. Big volumes will be traded, which means market participants are less exposed and it is not likely that expiring contracts will result in sales. At the end of this Friday, the question remains about how many contract holders in Bullion will have rolled over their contracts at current elevated prices.  Regarding technical levels, the intraday Pivot Point at $3,042 is the first resistance to recover, followed by the new all-time high at $3,057 reached on Thursday. The next target is the R1 resistance at $3,059, just below the $3,060 round number. If the last one is broken, then R2 resistance comes in at $3,074.  On the downside, the S1 support at $3,027 is doing its job for now during the European trading session, seeing some buyers coming in just below that level. In case more selling pressure should occur, look for the S2 support at $3,011 and the $3,000 round number to try and avoid a sharp correction.  XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.  

EUR/USD experienced a steep up move earlier this month and reclaimed its 200-DMA (now at 1.0725), Société Générale's FX analysts note.

EUR/USD experienced a steep up move earlier this month and reclaimed its 200-DMA (now at 1.0725), Société Générale's FX analysts note.  200-DMA at 1.0760/1.0725 can be a short-term support zone "It has faced strong resistance near 1.0950. Daily MACD has rolled over after registering multi-month highs and is challenging its trigger line; this is not a reversal signal but points towards receding upward momentum."  "A brief pause can’t be ruled out after recent stretched move. Inability to overcome 1.0950 may lead to a pullback; the 200-DMA at 1.0760/1.0725 could be a short-term support zone."

Oil prices rallied yesterday with ICE Brent settling more than 1.7% higher on the day at US$72/bbl, the highest close this month.

Oil prices rallied yesterday with ICE Brent settling more than 1.7% higher on the day at US$72/bbl, the highest close this month. And this strength has continued in early morning trading in Asia, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. OPEC+ monthly cuts to range between 189k b/d and 435k b/d "The US further tightened the screws on Iranian oil exports, including sanctioning Chinese refiner, Shandong Shouguang Luqing Petrochemical Co., Ltd, for buying Iranian crude oil. The refinery’s CEO was sanctioned, too."  "The US Treasury Department also sanctioned an oil terminal in China for handling and storing Iranian oil, as well as a handful of tankers linked to a shadow fleet transporting Iranian oil. Increased enforcement of US sanctions on Iranian oil exports is an upside risk to the oil market. Iran exported roughly 1.4m b/d of crude oil in February and President Trump has vowed to drive these volumes even lower." "OPEC+ members issued a schedule for making oil output cuts to compensate for overproduction. The cuts will run until June 2026. These monthly cuts will range between 189k b/d and 435k b/d. Importantly, they more than offset the monthly supply increases set to start in April. However, while the group shares a plan for compensation cuts, it certainly doesn’t mean members will follow it. A handful of members have consistently produced above their target production levels."

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data.

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The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 91.85 on Friday, up from 90.64 on Thursday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stuck to a strictly neutral tone in her EU Parliament speech yesterday, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stuck to a strictly neutral tone in her EU Parliament speech yesterday, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. Next major support is the 200-DMA at 1.0725 "It’s admittedly hard to ask for anything different than rigorous data dependency at a time where uncertainty on the tariff impact is paired with uncertainty about fiscal stimulus implications. In other words, don’t expect any ECB guidance before data has already set the direction for the euro." "For the time being, the unwinding of the EUR/USD rally is matching our call, even if perhaps slightly earlier than we would have thought. Again, noise risk is elevated, but our preference in terms of multi-week directions is still down for the pair. A 2-year swap rate differential around the current -150bp would still be consistent with EUR/USD at 1.07." "We also have a light calendar today in the eurozone and no ECB speakers. The next major support for EUR/USD is probably the 1.0725 200-day moving average, which is now the key benchmark for a return to a bullish mood on the greenback."

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a negative tone at the beginning of Friday, according to FXStreet data.

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Eurozone Current Account n.s.a fell from previous €50.5B to €13.2B in January

Eurozone Current Account s.a: €35.4B (January) vs previous €38.4B

The AUD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the 0.6270 area or a one-week low and meets with a fresh supply on Friday.

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Spot prices remain depressed below the 0.6300 mark through the first of the European session and could slide further amid a goodish pickup in the US Dollar (USD) demand. The Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained its forecast for two 25 basis points rate cuts in 2025 at the end of March policy meeting on Wednesday and gave a bump higher to its inflation projection. The outlook assists the Greenback to build on its modest recovery from a multi-month low for the third straight day and climb to a fresh weekly high. Apart from this, concerns about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs and geopolitical risks benefit the safe-haven buck. This, in turn, is seen exerting pressure on the AUD/USD pair.  The Australian Dollar (AUD), on the other hand, is undermined by the disappointing domestic jobs report released on Thursday, which showed that the number of employed people declined by 52.8K in February. The reading missed consensus estimates for a 30.0K increase by a big margin and raised concerns about potential weakness in the labor market. This could provide the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) more room to lower interest rates, which keeps the AUD bulls on the defensive and further contributes to the offered tone surrounding the AUD/USD pair.  Any meaningful USD appreciation, however, still seems elusive amid expectations that the Fed will resume its rate-cutting cycle sooner than expected amid worries about a tariff-driven slowdown in the US economic activity. Adding to this, the optimism over China's recent stimulus measures and hopes for a US-China trade deal could limit losses for the China-proxy Aussie. US Senator Steve Daines will visit China for trade talks – marking the first high-level political meeting since Trump’s return – to revive stalled trade negotiations amid rising tariff tensions. Moving ahead, there isn't any relevant market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Friday, leaving the USD at the mercy of speeches from influential FOMC members. This, in turn, could provide some impetus to the AUD/USD pair and produce short-term trading opportunities heading into the weekend. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to register losses for the first time in three weeks as the focus now shifts to the release of the flash global PMIs on Monday. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.  

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Friday, early in the European session.

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Japan's largest trade union group’s, Rengo, second-round data of annual labor talk (Shunto) results showed Japanese firms agreed to raise pay by 5.4% this year.

Japan's largest trade union group’s, Rengo, second-round data of annual labor talk (Shunto) results showed Japanese firms agreed to raise pay by 5.4% this year. The data is lower than the first-round results, which showed an average wage hike of 5.46% for fiscal 2025, higher than last year's average of 5.1%. The reading exceeded 5% for the second straight year. Market reaction The Japanese Yen (JPY) is off the lows but remains under heavy selling pressure on these headlines, keeping USD/JPY 0.42% higher on the day at 149.42 at the press time.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) extends correction to near 1.2920 against the US Dollar (USD) in European trading hours on Friday.

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The GBP/USD pair weakens as the US Dollar extends recovery amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut interest rates soon. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, gathers strength to break above the key resistance of 104.00. The Fed expressed that it is in no hurry to move to interest rate cuts after leaving them unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50% on Wednesday. The comments from the Fed regarding holding interest rates at their current levels were based on “unusually elevated” uncertainty over the United States’ (US) economic outlook due to the implementation of significant policy changes under the administration of US President Donald Trump. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in the press conference on Wednesday that tariff policies by US President Trump could push inflation higher and weigh on growth in the near term. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is almost certain to keep interest rates unchanged in the May meeting, but there is a 73% chance the central bank can cut them in June. Globally, investors’ risk appetite is expected to remain capped as President Trump is poised to impose reciprocal tariffs on April 2, which means equal tariffs for the same products imported and exported by the US with his trading partners. Such a scenario will be unfavorable for economic growth across the globe. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling drops after BoE’s policy decision The Pound Sterling trades lower against its major peers, except the Japanese Yen (JPY), on Friday. The British currency weakens after the Bank of England (BoE) left interest rates unchanged at 4.5% on Thursday. The Pound drops even though the steady interest rate decision seemed slightly hawkish.  Eight out of nine Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members voted for keeping borrowing rates at their current levels, while policymaker Swati Dhingra supported a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate reduction. Economists expected that two officials would vote for a quarter-to-a-percent reduction in interest rates. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said there is a lot of uncertainty at the moment, but he still thinks the monetary policy is on a “gradually declining path”. Meanwhile, fears of persistently high United Kingdom (UK) inflation remain solid amid steady wage growth. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported on Thursday that Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses, a key measure of wage growth, rose steadily by 5.9% in three months ending January. High wage growth has remained a key contributor to stubborn inflation in the services sector, which BoE officials closely track for decision-making on interest rates. For fresh cues on the current status of UK inflation, investors will focus on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, which will be released on Wednesday. In January, the headline CPI accelerated at a robust pace of 3% compared to the 2.5% rise seen in December. Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling falls to near 1.2920 The Pound Sterling slumps to near 1.2920 against the US Dollar on Friday after failing to extend its upside above the four-month high of 1.3000 the previous day. GBP/USD bulls take a breather as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached overbought levels above 70.00. However, this doesn’t reflect that the bullish trend is over. The upside trend could resume once the momentum oscillator cools down to near 60.00. Advancing 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near 1.2855 and 1.2712, respectively, suggest that the overall trend is bullish. Looking down, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, plotted from late-September high to mid-January low, at 1.2770 and the 38.2% Fibo retracement at 1.2615 will act as key support zones for the pair. On the upside, the October 15 high of 1.3100 will act as a key resistance zone. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  

NZD/USD pauses its three-day losing streak, trading around 0.5760 during European hours on Friday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD inches higher following New Zealand’s Trade Balance data on Friday.New Zealand’s Trade Balance showed a surplus of $510 million in February, reversing the previous month’s $544 million deficit.The pair’s upside may be limited as the US Dollar (USD) remains firm amid growing risk aversion.However, the pair’s upside may be limited as the US Dollar (USD) remains firm amid growing risk aversion.NZD/USD pauses its three-day losing streak, trading around 0.5760 during European hours on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) found little support following New Zealand’s trade balance data, which showed a surplus of $510 million in February, reversing the previous month’s $544 million deficit. Data released on Friday showed that goods exports surged 16% to $6.74 billion, while imports saw a modest 2.1% increase to $6.23 billion. Although New Zealand’s economy has emerged from recession, underlying weaknesses persist. Markets continue to anticipate policy easing, with expectations of around 60 basis points (bps) in rate cuts—equivalent to two or three reductions—by the end of the year. However, the upside of the NZD/USD pair may be capped as the US Dollar (USD) remains firm amid rising risk aversion driven by escalating global trade tensions linked to US tariff policies. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the inflationary impact of tariffs, calling them temporary, but acknowledged the broader economic uncertainty they create. On the US data front, Initial Jobless Claims rose to 223K for the week ending March 15, slightly below the 224K forecast but exceeding the prior week’s revised 221K. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for March dropped to 12.5 from February’s 18.1, marking a second consecutive monthly decline but remaining above the expected 8.5. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.  

France Business Climate in Manufacturing below forecasts (97) in March: Actual (96)

EUR/GBP gains ground on Friday after losses in the previous session, hovering around 0.8380 during early European trading.

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However, the currency pair could face headwinds as the Pound Sterling (GBP) strengthens following the Bank of England's (BoE) cautious stance on rate cuts and its revised inflation peak forecast for the year. On Thursday, the BoE maintained interest rates at 4.5% as expected, with eight out of nine Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members voting to keep borrowing costs unchanged. One member supported a 25 basis-point (bps) rate cut, fewer than the two anticipated by market participants. In the UK, GfK Consumer Confidence inched up by one point to -19 in March 2025, marking a second consecutive monthly increase from -22 in January and -20 in February. The figure surpassed market expectations of -21 but remained in negative territory, highlighting ongoing consumer caution. Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) remains under pressure after European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde warned of economic risks stemming from potential US tariffs. Speaking before the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, Lagarde noted that a 25% tariff on European imports—threatened by US President Donald Trump—could reduce Eurozone growth by approximately 0.3% in its first year. Additionally, ECB policymakers have signaled the possibility of rate cuts in 2025, citing increasing risks from global trade tensions. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming Eurozone data, including January’s current account balance and March’s consumer confidence figures due on Friday. Interest rates FAQs What are interest rates? Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.  

Here is what you need to know on Friday, March 21: The US Dollar (USD) gathered bullish momentum and outperformed its rivals on Thursday.

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The USD Index, which tracks the USD's valuation against a basket of six major currencies, continues to edge higher early Friday and stays in positive territory on the weekly chart. The economic calendar will not feature any high-impact data releases on Friday, and investors will pay close attention to comments from Federal Reserve officials and US President Donald Trump. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.   USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD   0.42% 0.00% 0.42% -0.44% 0.57% -0.22% -0.15% EUR -0.42%   -0.53% -0.40% -0.84% 0.01% -0.65% -0.57% GBP 0.00% 0.53%   0.44% -0.53% 0.51% -0.13% -0.13% JPY -0.42% 0.40% -0.44%   -0.84% -0.06% -0.58% -0.68% CAD 0.44% 0.84% 0.53% 0.84%   0.80% 0.21% -0.28% AUD -0.57% -0.01% -0.51% 0.06% -0.80%   -0.64% -0.59% NZD 0.22% 0.65% 0.13% 0.58% -0.21% 0.64%   0.06% CHF 0.15% 0.57% 0.13% 0.68% 0.28% 0.59% -0.06%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The USD benefitted from the cautious market mood and upbeat data releases on Thursday. Following Wednesday's rebound, major equity indexes in the US ended the day in the red. The US Department of Labor reported that there were 223,000 Initial Jobless Claims in the week ending March 15, slightly below the market expectation of 224,000. Other data from the US showed that Existing Home Sales increased by 4.2% in February, following January's 4.7% decline. Additionally, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index came in at 12.5 in March, surpassing analysts' estimate of 8.5. In the European morning, US stock index futures trade flat on the day and the USD Index consolidates its gains near 104.00.  US President Trump, once again, called upon the Fed to "do the right thing and lower interest rates" in a social media post early Friday. EUR/USD lost about 0.5% and closed the second consecutive day in negative territory on Thursday. The pair struggles to stage a rebound in the European morning and trades below 1.0850. Later in the day, the European Commission will publish the preliminary Consumer Confidence data for March. The Bank of England (BoE) announced on Thursday that it left the policy rate unchanged at 4.5%, as widely anticipated. Only one policymaker voted in favor of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut, against the market expectation of two policymakers. GBP/USD failed to gain traction following the BoE event and ended the day marginally lower. The pair stays on the back foot early Friday and trades below 1.2950. The data from Japan showed that the National Consumer Price Index rose by 3.7% on a yearly basis in February, after rising by 4% in January. The core CPI rose by 3% in the same period, coming in above the market forecast of 2.9%. After closing the day virtually unchanged on Thursday, USD/JPY turned north in the Asian session on Friday and was last seen rising about 0.4% on the day above 149.30.Gold made a downward correction after reaching a new record high above $3,050 and posted small losses on Thursday. XAU/USD continues to stretch lower on Friday and trades near $3,030. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.  

United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing came in at £10.71B, above forecasts (£-6.6B) in February

Turkey Consumer Confidence rose from previous 82.1 to 85.9 in March

USD/CHF continues its upward momentum for the third consecutive session, trading around 0.8840 during Asian hours on Friday.

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The pair gains as the Swiss Franc (CHF) struggles following the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) widely expected decision to cut its interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 0.25% from 0.50% after its March quarter monetary policy review. Despite the rate cut, the SNB refrained from committing to a specific policy direction, stating that lower borrowing costs are necessary to align monetary conditions with subdued inflationary pressures. However, the downside for the USD/CHF pair may be limited, as the Swiss Franc finds support from safe-haven demand amid rising geopolitical risks, stable Swiss inflation, and uncertainty surrounding US economic policy. Additionally, the US Dollar (USD) could remain firm as risk aversion rises due to escalating global trade tensions linked to US tariff policies. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the inflationary effects of tariffs, calling them temporary but acknowledged the broader economic uncertainty they introduce. On the economic data front, US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 223K for the week ending March 15, slightly below the 224K estimate but surpassing the previous week’s revised figure of 221K. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for March fell to 12.5 from February’s 18.1, marking a second consecutive monthly decline but remaining above the expected 8.5. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.  

The EUR/USD continues its decline for the third consecutive session, hovering around 1.0830 during Friday’s Asian trading hours.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}The EUR/USD may test immediate support at the nine-day EMA of 1.0846 in an attempt to re-enter the ascending triangle.The 14-day RSI remains above 50, indicating that the bullish outlook is still intact.A break below the 50-day EMA at 1.0612 could weaken medium-term price momentum.The EUR/USD continues its decline for the third consecutive session, hovering around 1.0830 during Friday’s Asian trading hours. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests growing selling pressure and a possible trend reversal, as the pair has fallen below the ascending channel pattern. Furthermore, the EUR/USD pair has dropped below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling weaker short-term price momentum. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key momentum indicator, remains above the 50 mark, suggesting that a bullish outlook is still intact. A continued decline would confirm the shift toward a bearish outlook. The EUR/USD pair could test immediate support at the nine-day EMA of 1.0846 level. A breakout above this level could strengthen short-term price momentum, allowing the pair to re-enter the ascending triangle. This could revive the bullish bias and potentially push the pair toward the triangle’s upper boundary near 1.0980. On the downside, the EUR/USD pair may target the 50-day EMA at the 1.0612 level. A break below this support could weaken medium-term price momentum, potentially extending the decline toward the six-week low of 1.0360, recorded on February 28. EUR/USD: Daily Chart Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.   USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD   0.31% 0.32% 0.54% 0.11% 0.29% 0.13% 0.24% EUR -0.31%   0.03% 0.23% -0.17% -0.01% -0.11% -0.08% GBP -0.32% -0.03%   0.21% -0.19% -0.03% -0.13% -0.10% JPY -0.54% -0.23% -0.21%   -0.44% -0.26% -0.39% -0.35% CAD -0.11% 0.17% 0.19% 0.44%   0.16% 0.06% 0.10% AUD -0.29% 0.00% 0.03% 0.26% -0.16%   -0.10% -0.16% NZD -0.13% 0.11% 0.13% 0.39% -0.06% 0.10%   0.04% CHF -0.24% 0.08% 0.10% 0.35% -0.10% 0.16% -0.04%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).  

Netherlands, The Consumer Confidence Adj fell from previous -32 to -34 in March

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers for the third successive day on Friday and slides to the $33.00 neighborhood during the Asian session, back closer to a one-week low touched the previous day.

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This supports prospects for deeper losses. However, oscillators on the daily chart – though they have been losing traction – are still holding in positive territory. Hence, any further decline is more likely to find decent support near the 38.2% Fibo. level, around the $32.95-$32.90 zone.  Bearish traders might wait for a sustained break below the said area before positioning for an extension of the retracement slide from the $34.20-$34.25 region, or the highest level since October touched on Tuesday. The XAG/USD might then accelerate the fall towards the 50% Fibo. level, around the $32.55-$32.50 zone, before eventually dropping to the $32.00 mark or the 61.8% Fibo. level. A convincing break below the latter will suggest that the white metal has topped out in the near term. On the flip side, the 23.6% Fibo. level, around the $33.40 region, could act as an immediate hurdle. Some follow-through buying beyond the Asian session high, around the $33.55 area, has the potential to lift the XAG/USD towards the $34.00 mark en route to a multi-month peak, around the $34.20-$34.25 zone. This is followed by barriers near the $34.55 area and the $34.85 region, or a multi-year peak touched in October, which if cleared will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders.  Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.  

FX option expiries for Mar 21 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Mar 21 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0700 794m 1.0785 913m 1.0800 1.5b 1.0850 1.1b 1.0900 1.8b GBP/USD: GBP amounts      1.2800 497m USD/JPY: USD amounts                                  147.00 1.9b 148.00 1b 149.00 2.8b 149.85 880m 150.00 1.6b 151.00 1.3b USD/CHF: USD amounts      0.8970 920m AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6300 1b 0.6355 485m USD/CAD: USD amounts        1.4280 1b 1.4295 1.2b 1.4300 2.5b EUR/GBP: EUR amounts         0.8400 675m 0.8525 1.1b

USD/CAD attempts to recover from recent losses, trading around 1.4330 during Asian hours on Friday.

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The pair may find support as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens on safe-haven demand amid rising global trade tensions driven by US tariff policies. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the inflationary impact of tariffs, calling it temporary but acknowledged the broader economic uncertainty. While recession risks have increased, Powell suggested they remain relatively low. On the data front, US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 223K for the week ending March 15, slightly missing the 224K estimate and exceeding the previous week’s revised 221K figure. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for March declined to 12.5 from February’s 18.1, marking a second consecutive monthly drop but remaining above the expected 8.5. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) faces pressure amid weakening investor sentiment, influenced by political uncertainty in Canada. Reports suggest new Prime Minister Mark Carney may call a snap election on April 28, raising concerns over policy stability. Additionally, investor sentiment has been dampened by US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats on Canadian imports, alongside existing duties on steel and aluminum. Furthermore, the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) recent rate cut to 2.75% has widened the interest rate differential with the Fed, driving capital outflows. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.  

The NZD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the 0.5725-0.5720 area and attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Friday.

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Spot prices currently trade with mild negative bias around mid-0.5700s, down for the third straight day amid a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick. The Federal Reserve (Fed) earlier this week maintained its forecast for only two 25 basis points rate cuts by the end of this year. Adding to this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the progress in achieving the inflation target could see a delay in the wake of the tariff retaliation by other countries on the US. This, in turn, is seen acting as a tailwind for the Greenback, which is looking to build on this week's bounce from a multi-month low and acting as a headwind for the NZD/USD pair.  Apart from this, persistent geopolitical risks stemming from fresh conflicts in the Middle East and the protracted Russia-Ukraine war lend additional support to the safe-haven buck. However, the growing acceptance that the Fed would resume its rate-cutting cycle sooner than expected, amid concerns over a tariff-driven US economic slowdown, might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets. This, in turn, should help limit any further downside for the NZD/USD pair.  This, along with the latest optimism over China's stimulus measures announced recently, should support antipodean currencies, including the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). In the absence of any relevant market-moving economic releases from the US, the fundamental backdrop makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the NZD/USD pair's uptrend witnessed since the beginning of this month has run out of steam and positioning for further losses.  New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.  

Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 8,409.45 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 8,447.88 it cost on Thursday. The price for Gold decreased to INR 98,085.98 per tola from INR 98,534.41 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,409.45 10 Grams 84,093.86 Tola 98,085.98 Troy Ounce 261,563.30   2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is pressured by modest USD strength; downside potential seems limited The US Dollar attracts some buyers for the third straight day and looks to build on this week's bounce from a multi-month low, exerting some downward pressure on the Gold price during the Asian session on Friday.  Investors remain worried about US President Donald Trump's threatened reciprocal tariffs, which he said will come into effect on April 2. This comes on top of a flat 25% duty on steel and aluminum since February. Both Russia and Ukraine stepped up aerial attacks on Thursday amid truce talks, with Ukraine striking Russia’s Engels airbase in the Saratov region with attack drones, causing a fire and explosions in the area.  Furthermore, Ukraine’s air force said on Thursday that Russia had launched 171 drones over its territory. Meanwhile, Russian and US officials are scheduled to hold talks on Ukraine in Saudi Arabia on Monday.  Israel resumed heavy strikes across Gaza on Tuesday, breaking the ceasefire with Hamas that was in place since late January. Moreover, Hamas fired three rockets at Israel on Thursday, without causing casualties.  The Federal Reserve indicated that it would deliver two 25 basis points rate cuts by the end of this year and also revised down its growth outlook amid the uncertainty over the impact of Trump's aggressive trade policies. Adding to this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that tariffs are likely to dampen economic growth. Investors now see the US central bank lowering borrowing costs at the June, July, and October monetary policy meetings.  The prospects for further policy easing by the Fed might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and act as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal in the absence of any relevant US macro releases. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.   Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold price (XAU/USD) meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Friday and slides to the $3,030 area in the last hour, back closer to the overnight swing low.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price attracts some sellers as a modest USD strength prompts some profit-taking.Fed rate cut bets should cap the US recovery and support the non-yielding yellow metal. Trade jitter and rising geopolitical tensions could further limit losses for the XAU/USD.Gold price (XAU/USD) meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Friday and slides to the $3,030 area in the last hour, back closer to the overnight swing low. The US Dollar (USD) trades with a positive bias for the third successive day and prompts bulls to lighten their bets around the commodity heading into the weekend. That said, a combination of factors might continue to offer some support to the bullion, which remains on track to register gains for the third straight week.  Investors remain concerned about US President Donald Trump's aggressive policies and their impact on the global economy. Apart from this, persistent geopolitical risks stemming from conflicts in the Middle East and the protracted Russia-Ukraine war should continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven Gold price. Furthermore, bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle should cap the USD gains and contribute to limiting losses for the non-yielding yellow metal.  Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is pressured by modest USD strength; downside potential seems limited The US Dollar attracts some buyers for the third straight day and looks to build on this week's bounce from a multi-month low, exerting some downward pressure on the Gold price during the Asian session on Friday.  Investors remain worried about US President Donald Trump's threatened reciprocal tariffs, which he said will come into effect on April 2. This comes on top of a flat 25% duty on steel and aluminum since February. Both Russia and Ukraine stepped up aerial attacks on Thursday amid truce talks, with Ukraine striking Russia’s Engels airbase in the Saratov region with attack drones, causing a fire and explosions in the area.  Furthermore, Ukraine’s air force said on Thursday that Russia had launched 171 drones over its territory. Meanwhile, Russian and US officials are scheduled to hold talks on Ukraine in Saudi Arabia on Monday.  Israel resumed heavy strikes across Gaza on Tuesday, breaking the ceasefire with Hamas that was in place since late January. Moreover, Hamas fired three rockets at Israel on Thursday, without causing casualties.  The Federal Reserve indicated that it would deliver two 25 basis points rate cuts by the end of this year and also revised down its growth outlook amid the uncertainty over the impact of Trump's aggressive trade policies. Adding to this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that tariffs are likely to dampen economic growth. Investors now see the US central bank lowering borrowing costs at the June, July, and October monetary policy meetings.  The prospects for further policy easing by the Fed might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and act as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal in the absence of any relevant US macro releases.  Gold price is likely to attract dip-buyers at lower levels and find decent support near the $3,000 psychological mark From a technical perspective, the corrective slide witnessed over the past two days could be attributed to some profit-taking amid slightly overbought conditions on the daily chart. That said, the lack of any follow-through selling warrants some caution for bearish traders and before confirming that the Gold price has topped out in the near term. Hence, any further decline below the $3,023-3,022 area might still be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the $3,000 psychological mark.  The latter should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders, which if broken decisively might prompt some technical selling and drag the Gold price to the $2,980-2,978 intermediate support en route to the $2,956 area. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the $2,930 support before the XAU/USD drops to the $2,900 mark and aims towards testing last week's swing low, around the $2.880 region. On the flip side, the $3,057-3,058 zone, or the all-time peak touched on Thursday, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle. A sustained strength beyond will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and pave the way for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend witnessed over the past three months or so. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.  

US President Donald Trump reiterated on Friday that he wants the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates.

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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price holds ground for the third successive session, trading around $68.30 per barrel during Asian hours on Friday.

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Oil prices remain on track for their second consecutive weekly increase, driven by new United States (US) sanctions on Iran. On Thursday, the US Treasury imposed fresh Iran-related sanctions, targeting an independent Chinese refiner along with other entities and vessels involved in supplying Iranian crude Oil to China. Analysts at ANZ Bank, cited by Reuters, anticipate a reduction of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in Iranian crude exports due to tighter sanctions. Meanwhile, vessel tracking service Kpler estimated Iran’s crude exports exceeded 1.8 million bpd in February but warned that sanctions could obscure actual figures. Additionally, Oil prices may find further support as OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and its allies, implements a new plan for seven member nations to cut production, reducing output by 189,000–435,000 bpd each month until June 2026. While Kazakhstan, Iraq, and Russia are expected to contribute to these reductions, increased production plans for next year could offset the impact. Earlier this month, OPEC+ confirmed that eight of its members would increase output by 138,000 bpd per month starting in April. This move reverses part of the 5.85 million bpd in production cuts that have been gradually implemented since 2022 to stabilize the market. Oil prices also remain supported by geopolitical risk premiums. Israel has launched a new ground operation in Gaza, while the US continues airstrikes against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Meanwhile, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, stated that Ukraine had violated a proposed ceasefire on energy infrastructure by attacking a Russian Oil depot. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.  

The Indian Rupee (INR) remains stable against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading hours on Friday, with USD/INR holding near a seven-week low of 86.20, recorded on Thursday.

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However, further downside of the pair may be limited as the Greenback gains strength amid rising risk aversion driven by concerns over US tariff policies. The INR also faces potential headwinds from rising crude Oil prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as India, the world’s third-largest Oil consumer, remains sensitive to energy costs. Israel has launched a new ground operation in Gaza, breaking a two-month ceasefire, while the US continues airstrikes against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Indian equities advanced on Thursday, buoyed by expectations that higher liquidity and relaxed financial conditions will support economic growth. Tech stocks led the rally, mirroring gains in US markets, while banking stocks maintained their upward momentum this month, supported by slower inflation, which has allowed the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to adopt a more accommodative stance toward the Indian Rupee. The RBI recently implemented its first rate cut in nearly five years, aligning with market expectations. With liquidity concerns persisting in the Indian financial system, the central bank is expected to continue easing to support growth. India’s GDP expanded by 6.5% in the current financial year, down from 8.2% in the previous period. Indian Rupee could appreciate as US Dollar struggles amid declining bond yields The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, is trading higher near 103.90. However, the US Dollar may face challenges as US bond yields decline, with investors seeking safety in Treasuries amid economic uncertainties. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the inflationary impact of tariffs, calling it temporary, but acknowledged the challenges in assessing broader effects. While recession risks have risen, Powell suggested they remain relatively low for now. US Initial Jobless Claims increased to 223K for the week ending March 15, slightly missing estimates of 224K and exceeding the previous week's revised figure of 221K (from 220K). Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for March eased to 12.5 MoM, down from February’s 18.1. This marked the second consecutive monthly decline, though the drop was less severe than the expected 8.5. US President Donald Trump urged the Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower interest rates, citing the economic impact of tariffs. Trump posted on the Truth Social platform that the Fed would be better off cutting interest rates as US tariffs begin to take effect in the economy. He added, "Do the right thing," "April 2nd is Liberation Day in America!" The Reserve Bank of India has likely been "opportunistically" absorbing USD inflows in recent sessions, possibly to rebuild foreign exchange reserves used to support the INR in recent months, according to reports. The yield on the 10-year Indian G-Sec dropped to 6.68%, its lowest level in three years, as expectations of lower interest rates grew. The RBI recently implemented its first rate cut in over four years, with lower-than-expected inflation in February reinforcing prospects for further easing this year. Technical Analysis: USD/INR could test nine-week lows near 86.00 The Indian Rupee (INR) remains stable, with the USD/INR pair trading around 86.30 during Asian hours on Friday. Technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a strengthening bearish bias, as the pair remains within a descending channel pattern. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned slightly above the 30 mark, reinforcing the bearish outlook. A break below 30 could indicate an oversold condition, potentially triggering an upward correction. The USD/INR pair could find immediate support at a nine-week low of 86.14 level, recorded on January 13, followed by the lower boundary of the descending channel near the psychological level of 86.00 level. On the upside, the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 86.57 could act as the initial barrier. A break above this level could improve the short-term price momentum and support the USD/INR pair to explore the area around the descending channel’s upper boundary near the 87.10 level. USD/INR: Daily Chart Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.  

The GBP/USD pair lacks any firm intraday direction on Friday and oscillates in a narrow trading band, around the 1.2960 area during the Asian session.

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Spot prices, however, remain close to the highest since early November – levels beyond the 1.3000 psychological mark touched on Thursday – and remain at the mercy of the US Dollar (USD) price dynamics.  The Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained its forecast for two 25 basis points rate cuts in 2025 at the end of March policy meeting on Wednesday and gave a bump higher to its inflation projection. Adding to this, the uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs and escalating geopolitical tensions underpin the safe-haven Greenback and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair.  The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, looks to build on a modest recovery from a multi-month low touched earlier this week, though any meaningful appreciation still seems elusive. Investors remain worried about a tariff-driven slowdown in the US economic activity, which, in turn, might force the Fed to resume its rate-cutting cycle sooner than expected.  The markets now currently pricing in the possibility that the Fed would lower borrowing costs in June, July, and October. In contrast, the Bank of England (BoE) warns against assumptions for cuts and also increased its forecast for a peak in inflation this year. This suggests that the UK central bank will lower borrowing costs more slowly than other central banks, including the Fed, lending support to the GBP/USD pair.  There isn't any relevant market-moving economic data due for release on Friday, either from the UK or the US. Moreover, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside. Hence, any subsequent slide could be seen as a buying opportunity and is likely to remain limited. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to end in the green for the third straight week. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  

The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges lower during the Asian session on Friday after data released from Japan showed that the annual National Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed in February.

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This, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, assists the USD/JPY pair to build on the overnight bounce from the weekly low and move back above the 149.00 mark in the last hour. However, bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates, amid expectations that strong wage growth could boost consumer spending and contribute to rising inflation, should limit JPY losses. Furthermore, persistent uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies and their impact on the global economy, along with geopolitical risks, should act as a tailwind for the safe-haven JPY. Meanwhile, bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon amid a tariff-driven slowdown, which might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets, mark a big divergence in comparison to hawkish BoJ expectations. This might further contribute to limiting losses for the lower-yielding JPY and capping the upside for the USD/JPY pair.  Japanese Yen bulls have the upper hand amid rising BoJ rate hike bets Data released earlier this Friday showed that Japan's National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.7% YoY in February, slower than 4% in the previous month. Meanwhile, the nationwide core CPI, which excludes fresh food items, climbed 3% during the reported month from a year earlier compared to 3.2% in January, though the reading was slightly above the 2.9% expected.  Meanwhile, the preliminary results from Japan's annual spring labor negotiations revealed that firms largely agreed to union demands for strong wage growth for the third consecutive year. This, in turn, is anticipated to boost consumer spending and contribute to broadening inflationary pressures in Japan, giving the Bank of Japan headroom to keep hiking rates. Moreover, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said earlier this week that the Shunto result is largely in line with our January view and the central bank wants to conduct policies before it is too late. Ueda added that achieving a 2% inflation target is important for long-term credibility and the BoJ will keep adjusting the degree of easing if the economic, price outlook is to be realized. In contrast, the Federal Reserve signaled that it would deliver two 25 basis points rate cuts by the end of this year. Moreover, the central bank revised its growth outlook downward amid the uncertainty over the impact of the Trump administration's trade policies. Adding to this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that tariffs are likely to dampen economic growth. Both Russia and Ukraine stepped up aerial attacks on Thursday. In fact, Ukraine struck Russia’s Engels airbase, which hosts Russian strategic bombers used to attack Ukraine, in the Saratov region with attack drones, causing a fire and explosions in the area. Furthermore, Ukraine’s air force said Thursday that Russia had launched 171 drones over its territory. Israel resumed heavy strikes across Gaza early this week, breaking the ceasefire with Hamas that was in place since late January. In response, Hamas fired three rockets at Israel on Thursday, without causing casualties. The development raises the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and underpins the safe-haven Japanese Yen.  The US Dollar looks to build on its modest recovery move from a multi-month low touched earlier this week and further lends some support to the USD/JPY pair. However, the divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations should keep a lid on any meaningful gains for the currency pair in the absence of any relevant market-moving economic releases from the US on Friday.  USD/JPY bulls might wait for a move beyond the 149.20-149.25 hurdle
From a technical perspective, any further move up beyond the 149.25-149.30 immediate hurdle could assist the USD/JPY pair to reclaim the 150.00 psychological mark. Some follow-through buying beyond the 150.15 area might prompt a short-covering rally and lift spot prices to the 150.60 intermediate barrier en route to the 151.00 mark and the monthly peak, around the 151.30 region. On the flip side, the Asian session low, around the 148.60-148.55 region, now seems to protect the immediate downside, below which the USD/JPY pair could accelerate the fall towards the weekly low, around the 148.28-148.15 area touched on Thursday. This is followed by the 148.00 mark and the 147.75 horizontal support, which if broken should pave the way for a fall towards the 147.30 region en route to the 147.00 mark and the 146.55-146.50 area, or the lowest level since early October touched earlier this month. Economic Indicator National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households nationwide excluding fresh food, whose prices often fluctuate depending on the weather. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Mar 20, 2025 23:30 Frequency: MonthlyActual: 3%Consensus: 2.9%Previous: 3.2%Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan  

On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1760 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1754 and 7.2423 Reuters estimate.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1760 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1754 and 7.2423 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.  

AUD/USD remains under pressure for a second consecutive day, hovering around 0.6300 during Asian trading on Friday.

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The pair struggles as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens, supported by safe-haven demand amid growing risk aversion linked to US tariff policies. Meanwhile, US bond yields are declining as investors flock to Treasuries in response to economic and geopolitical uncertainties. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the inflationary impact of tariffs, calling it temporary, but acknowledged the challenges in assessing broader effects. While recession risks have risen, Powell suggested they remain relatively low for now. On the data front, US Initial Jobless Claims increased to 223K for the week ending March 15, slightly missing estimates of 224K and exceeding the previous week's revised figure of 221K (from 220K). Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for March eased to 12.5 MoM, down from February’s 18.1. This marked the second consecutive monthly decline, though the drop was less severe than the expected 8.5. The Australian Dollar (AUD) also faces headwinds as traders reassess the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy stance following weaker-than-expected jobs data. Australia's unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% in February, but an unexpected decline in employment raised concerns about labor market weakness. The disappointing jobs report has fueled speculation that sustained labor market softness could provide the RBA with more flexibility to ease interest rates. However, RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter noted earlier in the week that while the board acknowledged room to reduce policy restrictiveness—following the recent decision to ease—it remains more cautious than markets about additional rate cuts. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.  

United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence above expectations (-21) in March: Actual (-19)

EUR/USD backslid for a second consecutive trading day, falling one-fifth of one percent on Thursday as markets continue to keep one foot in the safe haven US Dollar amid still-bubbling market tensions around the US’s waffling on tariff policy.

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Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell downplayed economic pitfalls at the hands of US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats that seem to exist in a quantum state where they both exist and do not exist simultaneously. According to Fed Chair Powell, downside risks have certainly elevated thanks to on-again, off-again tariff threats, but Fed policymakers continue to insist that US economic data remains healthy, albeit off of recent highs. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank’s Manufacturing Survey for March eased to 12.5 MoM, falling from the previous month’s 18.1 and declining for the second month in a row, but pulling the brakes and falling less than the median market forecast of 8.5. US weekly Initial Jobless Claims also rose slightly less than expected, clocking in at 223K net new jobless benefits seekers compared to the previous week’s 220K. Investors had expected a print of 224K. US Existing Home Sales also rose nearly a third of a million more transactions than expected, rising to 4.26 million units moved in February compared to January’s revised 4.09 million. Market watchers had expected a slight slowing to 3.95 million. there is little of note on Friday's economic data docket, leaving investors to grapple with and digest the week's events. Traders will also be keeping an eye out for any social media developments from President Trump. Donald Trump has made a habit of sending major proclamations into the void during Friday afternoons, prompting significant market reactions to both end the current week and kick off the next one, even though the majority of President Trump's statements have an iffy track record of coming true. EUR/USD price forecast EUR/USD shed weight for a second day, trimming another 20-odd pips and dragging the major pair back below the 1.0900 handle. Price action is drifting into rough sideways chop as directional momentum bleeds out of the charts, but near-term bidding action remains supported by 1.0800. EUR/USD daily chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  

Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks fell from previous ¥-220.5B to ¥-1806.2B in March 14

Japan National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) above expectations (2.9%) in February: Actual (3%)

Japan National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) climbed from previous 2.5% to 2.6% in February

Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) down to 3.7% in February from previous 4%

Silver price consolidated below the $34.00 figure for the second consecutive day and printed a bearish day, losing over 0.68% on Thursday, characterized by overall US Dollar strength.

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At the time of writing, as the Asian session begins, the XAG/USD trades at $33.54, virtually unchanged. XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook Even though Silver hit a fresh five-day low of $33.10, it bounced off the latter and hovers in the mid $33-$34 range a troy ounce after forming a ‘hammer.’ Despite retracing somewhat during the last few days, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows buyers are moving in, which could push the grey’s metal price higher. If XAG/USD clears $34.00, the following key resistance would be October 30, 2024, peaking at $34.51, followed by the $35.00 mark. On the other hand, if XAG/USD tumbles beneath $33.00, the next support would be the $32.50 psychological figure, followed by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $31.92. XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.  
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